Independiente del Valle vs Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores, Wednesday, 8:30pm ET

Play: Under 2.25 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Playable to -130

Independiente del Valle have lost just 1 of 31 home matches in the Copa Libertadores, ever! They have W19 D11 and just 1 loss, oddly enough to Palmeiras, back in 2021 by 1-0 through a penalty kick. On the other hand, Palmeiras have lost just 2 of L/28 away matches in the Copa Libertadores (in the last 5 years). One loss came to a fellow Brazilian side, and the other loss was to Bolivar on the road last season, where they used their 3rd team. 

Independiente del Valle are unbeaten in 2024 (W6 D5 L0), with a Draw and a win in the Copa Libertadores so far. At home they have a W5 D1 L0 record, scoring 2+ goals in 5 of 6 matches. They are 6-5 to the Under 2.5 Goals in 11 matches in all competitions, but most of those Overs came against teams that are much worse than them.

Palmeiras have not made a good start in the Brazilian Serie A so far with a W1 D1 L1, but they have grabbed 4 points from their first two matches in the Copa Libertadores and this is probably their hardest match of the group stage, so a Draw here would be a good result, as they will host them in a later date. 

Palmeiras have one thing in common in all their away matches in 2024, and that's Unders. They are 9-0 to the Under 2.5 Goals in all 9 away matches, with 4 of those going  to the Under 1.5 Goals. 

Two teams that rarely lose in the Copa Libertadores, and this looks an awful lot like a Draw (+205 at the moment), but I don't see a lot of goals, as the main goal for both these teams is to avoid the loss. If there's a winner, they will probably win by the smallest of margins, and I do think these two will cancel each other out. 

Take 1u on the Under 2.25 Goals (-125)