3% Arizona F5 TT Over (7:45 ET): Again, please note that this play is for the first five innings. I simply do not trust D’backs starter Brandon Pfaadt, whose “breakthrough” in LY’s playoffs seems to have been a mirage. However, I do expect Arizona to put some runs on the board early against Cardinals starter Lance Lynn. This is a D’backs lineup that leads all of MLB with 131 runs scored this season as they put 17 (!) on the board on Friday. Here they are going up against a pitcher (Lynn) that has given up 48 home runs since the start of last season and the hitting conditions (11 MPH winds blowing out) project to be favorable tonight at Busch Stadium. 

One thing I’ll say for Pfaadt is there are some positive regression signs in his profile. The same cannot be said for Lynn, who is fortunate to have a 2.18 ERA after four starts as he’s allowing plenty of hard contact and hits. This despite his L3 starts coming against the Marlins, Phillies and A’s. The start against Miami saw him allow three runs. This is the matchup where the “chickens should come home to roost” (so to speak) as I think Lynn gives up a bunch of runs. 

So take Arizona Over their F5 total, which you should be able to get at a nice plus price. Three runs from them in five innings, against a starter due for some regression, hardly qualifies as a “big ask.” Since the 17-run effort on Friday, they scored three runs in the F5 Saturday but only one yesterday. So their probably “due” for a nice start to the game at the plate. The D’backs did NOT face Lynn in the prior series with the Cardinals, but did have two big early innings, scoring 5 and 6 runs against Redbirds’ pitching. Again, we need just three runs over the F5 frames here. 3% Arizona F5 TT Over (Play at 2.5)