3% Philadelphia (6:40 ET): Two surging ball clubs in the Senior Circuit meet on Monday when the Reds host the Phillies. This will be the second series between these teams in 2024. The first saw the Reds take two of three in Philly. Since that time, the Phils have won 12 of 16 including six straight. It’s their best start to a season since 2018. Now all six of those wins did come at the expense of the White Sox and Rockies, arguably the two worst teams in all of baseball. And the Reds are winners of three straight (fresh off their own sweep of the Angels) giving them their best start since 2013 (12-9). But I am seeing a decided starting pitching edge in tonight’s series opener, which should prove to be the difference.

By the numbers, the Phillies actually own the NL’s best starting rotation at the moment. Collectively, the group went 31 ⅓ IP w/o allowing an earned run before Aaron Nola gave up two in the first against the White Sox yesterday. Of course, the Phils ended up winning 8-2, completing the sweep. The first two games of the series saw starters Spencer Turnbull and Zach Wheeler take no-hitters into the 7th and 8th innings, respectively. Now it’s Ranger Suarez’s turn to toe the rubber again. The team is 4-0 in Suarez’s starts thus far with the southpaw posting a 1.73 ERA and 0.769 WHIP. 

It’s a decided edge the Phillies have with Suarez on the mound against Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene. The Reds have lost all four of Greene’s starts with him posting a 4.35 ERA and 1.306 WHIP. His last time starting here at GAB, Greene got rocked for seven runs by Milwaukee. That’s more runs than Suarez has allowed all season as he’s off B2B starts w/ no runs allowed, including a CG seven-hitter vs. the Rockies last time out. Why I’m looking beyond just the starters and playing Phillies full game is because the Reds’ bullpen was taxed Sunday (8 ⅓ IP as starter Montas left in the 1st inning w/ an injury). The Reds have been outhit in five of their last six games with only 30 hits total. Don’t understand the morning line movement for this one. 3% Philadelphia (Play to -125)