3% Take Cleveland – Orlando OVER (#501-502)

The Game 1 total opened and stayed in the 207.5 range. The betting markets have made a significant adjustment to the Under for Game 2, a total that was a full five points lower than Game 1 at the open.  There’s legitimate value on the OVER tonight, taking advantage of a betting market overreaction from Game 1’s results.

Make no mistake about it – Game 1 was a brick fest.   The Cavs and Magic combined to make only 16-67 (24%) from three point range.  They combined to hit only 48-110 (under 44%) from two point range.    And they combined for only 70% free throw shooting: 46 fouls were whistled culminating in only 36 made field goal attempts.  Each and every one of those offensive numbers is primed to improve in Game 2—we don’t have both teams coming off a week long layoff here; both teams can adjust to the defenses that they just faced.

The pace was there to cash Over bets in Game 1, but the shot making wasn’t.  Orlando knows they need to push pace and take advantage of transition opportunities against the Cavaliers strong half court defensive sets. Paolo Banchero, following Saturday’s loss: “We didn’t score enough. Just shots weren’t falling, but I thought we got good looks. We missed a lot of free throws (19 of 30) and didn’t make 3s (8 of 37). There were a lot of things we could have done a lot better.”   Expect BOTH teams to shoot better today; a game where the loser is very live to reach 100 points or more after Game 1’s shooting struggles.  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 204 or lower, 2.5% at 204.5 or higher