AC Milan vs Inter Milan
Serie A, Monday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Over 5.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -112
Line Parameter: Playable to -125

HUGE derby in the city of Milan, with Inter Milan looking for a win to mathematically seal the title in the home ground of their arch rivals, with AC Milan looking to play spoiler. Inter Milan winning the title is only a matter of time, as they are 14 points ahead of AC Milan, with 6 more matches to go, so a win here would seal the deal. 

AC Milan have been poor in derbies under coach Pioli, and especially against Inter Milan, having lost 5 in a row and getting outscored 12-1. Really bad record for Pioli, who has been outclassed by Simone Inzaghi's Inter Milan on multiple occasions. 

I don't think AC Milan will want to see their arch rivals lift the Scudetto in front of their own fans, and we would bet on cards even if the title was not at stake here. This is a hateful city derby between two teams that often produce massive card-fests. 

Referee Colombo has an average of 6.05 cards/match in 19 matches in all competitions this season, with 4 red cards and 7 penalty kicks. In 14 Serie A matches he has an average of 6.07 cards/match, with 3 red cards and 3 penalty kicks. 

He has officiated just one AC Milan match in his lifetime, back in February 2024, where AC Milan lost to Monza by 4-2, in a match that had 7 total cards (with 1 red). 

He has officiated two Inter Milan matches this season (3 all-time), with the most recent against Atalanta producing 8 cards and 1 penalty kick, and the other one was a match against lowly Monza with just 2 cards. The match last season between Inter Milan and Bologna had 6 cards. 

Take 1u on the Over 5.5 cards -112