3% Milwaukee (7:00 ET): Similar deal to Mavs-Clippers as there’s been a big line swing based on the presumed absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is doubtful with a calf injury. The Bucks were 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS against the Pacers in the regular season and that was with Giannis averaging 42.2 points on 68% shooting in those five games! So him being out obviously doesn’t seem great on paper. But like the Clippers, Milwaukee has the horses (Lillard, Middleton) to carry the team to victory and I just don’t trust a Pacers team that is very bad defensively (120.2 PPG allowed) and has little in the way of playoff experience. 

A lot has changed since these teams last met all the way back on January 3rd. Certainly, the biggest change is that Doc Rivers is now the Bucks’ head coach. While Doc really didn’t improve the team on the defensive end and can be the butt of jokes, he does own 13 outright upsets as a dog in the first round of the playoffs. This is very rare to see a team, let alone two (Clippers) as a home dog for Game 1 of a playoff series. In fact, it had previously only happened twice in the last 20 years! So even with these key injuries, it does feel like an overreaction by the market. 

Similar to Leonard, if Giannis is able to go here, we’re getting great CLV. Again, you may want to wait to bet though, because if he’s out, then this line will just keep going up. I’d have the Bucks as a three-point favorite with Giannis in the lineup. But, end of the day, I just think it’s tough to trust a Pacers team that has not won a playoff series since 2014 or even a playoff game since 2018. Especially in the role of road favorite. Milwaukee is 31-10 SU at home this season and recently beat Boston here despite Giannis missing the 4Q. I think you’re still going to see them put up a big point total here, with or without their superstar. 3% Milwaukee (Play ML if favored)