Pirates (6:40PM ET NESN, SNPIT, MLB.TV) – Our most recent MLB play was a winner on Boston and now we are going to play against the Red Sox when they hit the road to kick off a three-game set in the Steel City against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. 

I’ve played against Pittsburgh a couple times but not because I don’t think the Pirates are a good team, I just thought the Bucs were way overvalued after an 11-5 start.  Now the Pirates have lost three straight and four of their past five, the masses have had enough of the Pirates but this is actually a very good matchup for the Buccos and this is where I’m going to jump in.  I really like Pirates starting pitcher Quinn Preister, he was supposed to start for AAA Indianapolis tonight but the Pirates need a starter to fill Marco Gonzales spot in the rotation and have decided to make the move to Preister here. I know many wanted the Pirates to call up Paul Skenes but this is the right move as Priester was solid at AAA last season, got a taste of the majors, and put in the work this past offseason to be even better at the AAA level this season.  Priester has a 3.95 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 13.2 innings at AAA this season and has looked more dominant than he did at any point last year.  The former 1st round pick worked hard on his curveball this past offseason, he’s throwing it more frequently and AAA hitters have struggled to put it in play.  Priester got rocked at the big-league level last season but he wasn’t called up until July at which point the Pirates were really struggling.  That’s also the reality of Major League Baseball, at AAA you can get guys out with two decent pitches, in MLB unless you have two elite pitches you need 3-4 and I think that’s what Priester accomplished in the offseason to set himself up for success here.

Boston is a mess right now, the Red Sox are dealing with a multitude of injuries and starting pitching has been the only thing keeping this Red Sox team from a total free fall.  Brayan Bello gets the ball tonight for Boston, I won’t be surprised if he pitches well as the Pirates aren’t hitting right now either but Bello has conceded at least one earned run in all of this starts this season and has yet to complete six innings.  Boston also beats themselves, the Red Sox lead Major League Baseball with 20 errors and have gifted opponents 26 unearned runs so far this season.  It’s one of the worst defensive starts for any MLB team in the past two decades and it’s going to be EXTREMELY difficult for a team to overcome careless play AND several lineup injuries that have cooled this Sox team off significantly.  Rafael Devers remained out yesterday with a knee injury, Tyler O’Neill was put on the IL on Monday and the Red Sox have had to shuffle some pitchers around which means the bullpen isn’t in an optimal state right now either.  Boston’s bullpen rates out as a middle of the pack unit but yesterday’s bullpen day means Brennan Bernardino, Cooper Criswell and Joe Jacques are likely unavailable here.  Chris Martin has been average so far and if we see Kenley Jansen making his way to the mound we probably already lost so it’s a pitching setup I’m willing to oppose for the Red Sox.  I think the Sox likely need 4 innings from the bullpen tonight and with Bello likely to give up something I think that puts the Pirates in position here. 

I’m hoping the Pirates can get the ball to David Bednar as I like this a spot for him to bounce back.  Bednar is off to a terrible start, he’s already blown three saves which is the total number of saves he blew in 42 attempts last season.  Aroldis Chapman has the option to appeal his suspension which would make him available tonight and it’s likely he will do that since he hasn’t pitched since April 15th.  That would mean the Pirates have their full complement of relievers and this is a Pirates bullpen that was excellent for stretches last season and is probably better than what they have shown so far this year.

Finally, the Pirates are desperate after being swept by the Mets.  I think we get a nice outing from Priester and the Pirates go all out with top relief arms to secure this win.  Play on Pirates -109 for 5% (or 5 units)