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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(969) New York Yankees at (970) Toronto Blue Jays

Event:
(969) New York Yankees at (970) Toronto Blue Jays
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
April 16, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-111
Play:
4% – New York Yankees -111 C Rodon (LHP), Y Kikuchi (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

I’ll go for a little zig zag action here.  Prefer Rodon to Kikuchi and the Jays needed their top relief options to close out a 3-1 win.  This series has been extremely competitive so far this season.   Feels like the Yankees even up this series.

Similar to my willingness to bet against the Yankees last night I'm willing to bet against the Jays here (a team I'm extremely high on) because the Yankees are one of the few teams I hold in the same regard this year.  

I think the Yankees have a legitimate World Series contender here, the power numbers are probably understated from what they will be for the Bronx Bombers and yet (even with back to back losses!) the Yankees are still 12-5.  The Yankees lead the league in walk rate and rarely strikeout so this is a lineup with upside that's already having excellent at bats 1-9.  Yusei Kikuchi has been excellent but the Yankees have seen him a bunch and this patient approach combined with the fact the Yankees just saw Kikuchi a week ago leads me to believe the Yankees find a way to break through here.  

The Blue Jays did not have the benefit of facing Carlos Rodon last week and I think that puts the Jays at a disadvantage here.  Rodon hasn't been razor sharp but he's turned in three respectable outings so far and his addition of a cutter has been particularly good as no one has gotten a hit off it yet in 15.2 innings.  He's also getting a ridiculous 24% swing and miss rate on that cutter, it's his primary stuff that's gotten hit but that will improve as he continues to refine his pitch mix.  I also like the bullpen arms the Yankees have tonight behind Rodon while the Jays needed 4 high leverage innings to close out yesterday's 3-1 win.

I don't zig-zag in the same series very often but I think I have a good beat on these two teams and the price was cheap enough to warrant it.   I like the Yankees to find a way here.

Play on Yankees -111 for 4% (or 4 units)

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