Mets (7:10PM ET SNPIT, SNY, MLB.TV) – Giants fall flat on Sunday but a solid run over the past week or so to put us into the positive in MLB so far this season. I’m looking to make a big move up that leaderboard on Monday, there’s three games I love on today’s board and I’m playing them all, starting in the Big Apple when the New York Mets kick off a three game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citi Field in Flushing, New York.

First and foremost a fade of Martin Perez as it’s still shocking to me that Perez is an effective pitcher at this point in his career.  To Perez credit he’s a veteran that throws strikes and rarely gets hurt, which will keep you employed forever in this league, but his 2022 season is an outlier when you look at his career numbers and I expect some regression from his 1.89 ERA 1.21 WHIP stat line to start 2024.  Perez is giving up A TON of hard contact, more than half of the balls in play off Perez this season have been 95+ MPH and the Mets are collectively putting the ball in play now so this bodes well for the home team.  That offensive surge is the reason the Mets have now won 7 of their past 10 games and if Perez isn’t racking up strikeouts he’s almost certain to give up some runs here.  Long term I expect the Mets to be the better of these two teams, conservatively I think the Mets play .500 ball this season but there’s upside to this Mets team to the point where I could see them winning 85 or more.  Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has started a ridiculous 11-5 but I’ll be surprised if the Pirates are a .500 team this season so I think regression is not only inevitable for Perez but the Pirates as a whole.  This Mets lineup hits left-handed pitching well and managed five hits off up and coming ace Cole Ragans in a win over the Royals yesterday.  After seeing Ragans nasty stuff I think Perez is a “walk in the park” of sorts for the Mets here. 

The Mets counter here with Adrian Houser, he’s right around the same caliber of starting pitcher as Perez but the Mets don’t ask nearly as much of Houser as the Pirates do of Perez.  The Mets are happy if Houser gives them five respectable innings and I think that’s more than likely as Houser has been excellent against the Pirates throughout his career. Houser has faced the Pirates plenty in recent seasons and he’s 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA across seven appearances (six starts) that have spanned 34 innings.  Houser doesn’t have overpowering stuff at this point, I’m willing to back him because he’s a veteran and I think as a veteran that’s still having marginal success he’s going to be at his best against teams he’s comfortable facing and the Pirates certainly fit the bill there.   The Pirates bullpen has been above-average, which one would expect from a team off to a 11-5 start, but the deceiving part there is Pittsburgh’s high leverage guys have not been great.  David Bednar was blown up by the Tigers the other day while Colin Holderman was not sharp over the weekend in his first action of 2024.  Aroldis Chapman has been the bright spot but he’s not going to pitch more than an inning which means the Pirates are going to ask for distance from Perez (he’s pitched into the 7th in back to back starts) and I think three times through the order gives Houser and the Mets the edge here.

The Pirates were as high as +2500 to win the NL Central at points in time before the season.  Playing .500 ball this year would be a massive achievement for this Pirates team but (unless they call up Paul Skenes and he ends up being as good as advertised) I don’t think the Pirates remain above .500 very long.  The Pirates also had the benefit of starting the season against the Marlins and Nationals (both terrible teams) and went 6-1 in those games but looked more mortal this past weekend splitting a four game set with the Phillies in Philadelphia.  The Mets started 0-5 but have since took two of three from the Reds, Braves and Royals, all of which have winning records.  I think the Mets do the same to the Pirates and get started on the right foot with a win in the opener.  Play on Mets -119 for 5% (or 5 units)