2:10 PM ET -- MLB 

909 Houston Astros 
910 Kansas City Royals

Play: 909 HOUSTON -132

List Pitchers: Brown & Singer

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at -140 or better
3% play at -141 to -145
2% play at -146 to -150

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY MLB-WIDE SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

Play ON teams with a win percentage greater than 27% if they're not a road underdog & it's Game 3 and the last game of the series after losing the first 2 games, and they're losing streak is exactly 2 games.  63-35 (64.3%) going back to last season.

Play AGAINST home underdogs whose current streak is at least 6 games better than their opponent's current streak (KC 6-0 L6 + Houston 0-2 L2 = KC's streak better by 8 games).  19-8 (70.4%) going back to last season.

KEY TEAM-SPECIFIC SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Going back to last season, HOUSTON is 10-2 when a favorite of more than -110 and coming off a loss as a road favorite.