4% #671/672 Alabama & UConn UNDER 160.5 — 

Despite Alabama’s explosive and high-paced offense, I am backing the defenses in this one. After seeing what UConn did to Illinois’ offense, it is hard to imagine anyone being able to put up huge explosive numbers. 

Illinois was a top 5 offensive team in the country this season and the Huskies held them to just 52 points and 25.4% shooting!! UConn has gone 3-8 OU TY vs. teams ranked in KenPom’s top 25 offenses (which Alabama is) and have limited some of the biggest threats in the entire league. 

UConn has stayed under in 5 straight games now, while also holding 4 straight opponents under 37.5% shooting. They have gone 1-6 OU in their L7 March Madness games and 2-8 OU in their L10 tournament games (incl. CONF). Going back to the regular season, they have also stayed UNDER in 8 of the L9 overall! 

Alabama had some issues with top defensive units before, Tennessee and Auburn gave them some troubles earlier in the year. Those were the two best defensive units Alabama has seen to date, and may have some issues scoring here. UConn has shown an ability to slow down the game, and they are one of the better 3PT defenses in the country. Alabama relies heavily on their 3PT shooting, but their 3PT defense is actually what solidifies this for me. 

UConn has mainly been a 2PT scoring team, and I think that trend definitely continues here tonight because Alabama may not be known for their defensive prowess this season, but their 3PT defense has been solid enough for the Huskies to continue their 2PT-per-possession trend.