There's no doubt Alex Pereira's been one of my most profitable fighters to back and really have a great read on him overall. Since his fight against Bruno Silva back in 2022, I've max bet Poaton in every single one of his bouts. Going 5-1 over that span while the market continues providing good odds to bet. We're going back to the well once more and believe this is a great stylistic match up with multiple red flags on the Jamahal Hill side. To start, I don't believe this fight hits the mat. Sure, there could be some level changing attempts throwing each other off balance, but both these gentlemen want to strike. Over Hill's 9 fights including Dana White's Contender Series bout, he's never even attempted a takedown. Don't believe he turns into Khabib all of a sudden. While Jamahal does keep a high striking output and very rangy on the feet there's one clear vulnerability… leg kicks. I sense Pereira's going to chop away at Hill's legs early and often just as he did against Jiri Prochazka. In round 1 Alex found a lot of success firing leg kicks in combinations or countering while Jiri planted his feet to strike. Jamahal definitely has a kicking game but does come forward with a predominately boxing approach which forces him to be heavy on front foot. This will open windows of opportunity for Poaton to repeatedly land on Hill's calf. Now… add in the fact that Hill is also coming off a very bad Achilles injury he suffered playing basketball. Yes, basketball. Which is the reason he vacated the title last year. There is concern he's coming back to quickly and hasn't fully healed but accepted the big spot to headline UFC 300. Not saying Jamahal's coming in injured but could be a weakness to an area Pereira will 100% target a lot. Let's take it a step further with the 15 month layoff Hill's on since fighting Glover Teixeira back in January of 2023. Ring rust is real and mixing together this long layoff, coming off major surgery to fix his Achilles and coming in on somewhat short'ish notice to fight one of the best strikers on earth. Hill even discussed in interviews how he found out from UFC days before the main event was announced that he'd be on it. Doesn't sound like he was fully preparing and looked in terrible shape just 2 months ago. While from all accounts, Pereira was fully preparing to fight on this card for awhile targeting this date. Plus, over this 15 month layoff for Jamahal he was more in recovery mode than training mode. Getting surgery and healing up over sharpening his tools in the lead up to this fight, while Pereira's been winning fights and strapped light heavyweight gold around his waist. Lastly, we need to discuss strength of schedule for each guy and I gotta say… Hill's run to the title isn't all that impressive. After losing to Paul Craig due to having his arm snapped off Jamahal went on a 4 fight winning streak with some suspect victories. Knocking out Jimmy Crute who's proven not to be UFC caliber going 0-3-1 in last 4 cage appearances. Then defeated the Mount Rushmore of glass chins in Johnny Walker whom a gust of wind could brutally knock him out. After that he faced Thiago Santos who was very competitive on the feet and also took Hill down 6 times, but Hill was able to find the KO finish in round 4. Although let's be clear… Santos hasn't looked the same since blowing out his knee against Jon Jones back in 2019 and is no longer with the UFC. Currently Thiago's on a 1-7 run including recent losses in PFL. Then most recently Hill beat a 43 year old Glover Teixeira. Not the most impressive run, while Poaton has faced 5 straight former champions in Sean Strickland, Israel Adesanya twice, Jan Blachowicz & Jiri Prochazka. That's a murder's row of elite level talent and after the dust settled Alex has won titles in 2 weight glasses in just 7 UFC bouts. 

Give me Poaton getting his hand raised once more. 

5% Max Bet: Alex Pereira (-148)