Recent Play Details

Kiwoom Heroes (5:30AM ET Naver TV) – My only play for Thursday came in KBO and it was a blowout winner to give us another winning day and push our current KBO run to 7-2.  It’s been an excellent week that’s seen us claw our way back toward KBO profit and I’ll look to continue our solid form with another KBO best bet on Friday morning when the Kiwoom Heroes kick off a three-game set with the Lotte Giants at the Gocheok Sky Dome in Seoul, South Korea. 

I played on Lotte yesterday but that was more of a fade of a banged up NC team than an endorsement of the Giants.  I’ve had Lotte circled as a fade (as discussed on Spaces) since Zach Reks went down but since the Giants were in favorable matchups against Hanwha and NC and we did cash on the Lotte fade during the SSG series.  I’m looking at this week the way I was looking at last week for Lotte, the Giants were able to open the week with a 2-1 series win but that came at home (where the Giants are much better) against a compromised NC Dinos team.  Now Lotte hits the road against a Kiwoom team that is starting to get desperate at 19-26 on the season but has played much better at home and is likely looking at this weekend as a big opportunity to bounce back from a pair of losses to KT the past couple days.  In spite of Kiwoom’s losing overall record the Heroes are 13-10 at the Sky Dome this season and their 2.86 home bullpen ERA is one of the best marks in KBO. Lotte’s relievers have a collective 5.15 road ERA and, in a game where the starters are fairly even, that could end up being the difference here. 

While I’m not going to argue with someone calling these two import starters even I do give a slight nod to Kiwoom starting pitcher Ariel Jurado and I’ll explain why here.  First I’ll state the obvious, Jurado’s ERA is a full run lower and, while ERA is typically not a statistic I care about, it’s relevant here because I think Jurado is better equipped to pitch out of a jam. Jurado had five or more strikeouts his first six starts in KBO but has been more hittable the past few times out and I attribute that directly to LG, NC and Kia having already seen him.  That’s three respectable lineups right there that were able to make adjustments while Lotte will be seeing Jurado for the first time and without their best hitter in Reks.  Jurado has yet to give up more than three earned runs in any of his nine starts in this league and a very impressive six of those starts have met the requirements to be considered a quality start.  Overall these bullpens are very close but the splits favor Kiwoom here wth the 2.86 ERA at Gocheok while Lotte’s bullpen ERA is 5.15 on the road.  Jurado comes in off a couple of losses despite not pitching all that bad and I think that will motivate him to bear down and put Kiwoom in position to win here.

I’m still not fully sold on Dan Straily and that’s enough for me to go against him with Jurado and Kiwoom here.  Quick backstory on Straily, he dominated this league during the pandemic in 2020 yet MLB teams still wanted no part of him and they were probably right as Straily came back in 2021 and put up lackluster numbers.  Straily chose to go back to the states on a Minor League contract in 2022 and was rocked in AAA before eventually getting his release to come back to Korea and see if he could help Lotte during last season’s stretch run. Straily was surprisingly great last year, in 11 starts he posted a 2.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP and looked a lot more like he did in 2020 than what was considered a disappointing 2021.  Lotte decided to bring Straily back for a fourth season, when I heard that earlier this year I thought he might be a potential fade (big name that has had success in this league but has a skill set on the decline) and that’s starting to look like the case as referenced by his 4.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. In hindsight, knowing that MLB teams have been happy to take a chance on imports that have had success in KBO (Chris Flexen, Ben Lively, Drew Rucinski, Merrill Kelly, Adrian Sampson) I find it odd that Straily garnered very little MLB interest after striking out over 200 batters in this league in 2020 (which is even more impressive because the strike zone was still tighter).  I don’t think Straily’s early season struggles and decline so far in 2023 is a fluke, he’s backed here by a Lotte bullpen that’s been awful on the road and all of that is enough for me to take my chances with the Heroes at home here.  Play on Kiwoom Heroes -115 for 4% (or 4 units)