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Take Florida Atlantic (#779)

I’ve been doing a radio show in South Florida for the better part of the last 20 years (the Locker Room show with ‘The Greek’ out of West Palm Beach on Iheart radio).  The hosts pointed out Florida Atlantic to me early this season, and it was certainly a sin of omission not to have backed the Owls repeatedly as they dominated C-USA from start to finish; a 31-3 campaign; 21-10-1 ATS.  FAU is deep, they don’t rely on a single star player or two – balanced scoring, with lots of different guys stepping up for head coach Dusty May.   The Ken Pom numbers have FAU as a Top 40 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency and my numbers agree.

The betting markets never caught up with the Owls, but they’ve certainly caught up with the Tigers; a Memphis squad getting a boatload of respect in the markets right now thanks to a win and a two point home loss against mighty #1 seed Houston already here in March.  It certainly helped that they faced Houston three times in just over a month – they were ready for that Unlike FAU, Memphis relies heavily on their two double digit scorers, Kendric Davis and DeAndre Williams.  Penny Hardaway’s squad has a losing spread record as a single digit favorite and I’m not convinced they should be favored here at all.  Just about every ‘sharp’ dollar bet on this game has come for the underdog; for good reason!  Take FAU.

Line Parameter: 3% at +1.5 or higher, 2% at +1 or lower