Recent Play Details

10:10 PM ET -- NBA

509 Orlando Magic 
510 Phoenix Suns

Play: UNDER 228.5 (-110)

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 227.5 or better 
2% play at 226.5 or 227
1% play at 225.5 or 226

My NBA totals plays are determined by relevant statistical data (using NBA.com's stats for pace and offensive & defensive efficiency), history involving similar games from a situational perspective (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Additional Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

NOTE: I am not concerned with sample size.  I'm looking for current-season, recent performance patterns, especially ones with an average winning margin of at least two possessions (> 6 points).  All trends/angles listed are from the current season only unless otherwise noted.

-> The UNDER is 8-0 (by 9.4 ppg) when Orlando is on the road off a loss in which it allowed its opponent to shoot better than 52% from the field.

-> The UNDER is 7-0 (by 8.6 ppg) when Orlando is on the road off a loss by 15 points or more.

-> The UNDER is 6-1 (by 9.1 ppg) when Phoenix is at home after shooting worse than 44% from the field in its previous game.

-> The UNDER is 8-1-1 (by 10.1 ppg) when Phoenix is at home and playing a team that beat them the last time they met this season.