Recent Play Details

Northwestern (7:35PM ET Tru TV) – I’m going to lock in my second play for Thursday’s Round of 64 action and I’m staying out west where the #7 seed Northwestern Wildcats take on the #10 seed Boise State Broncos in West Region action at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.

These two teams are VERY similar but Northwestern checks all the boxes for me here.  Both teams play at a crawl which means efficiency is key and I simply trust Northwestern to get more out of their possessions than Boise State.  Northwestern is 7th nationally with just 9.1 turnovers per game which means the Wildcats wont give away points and they shoot 75.1% as a team from the foul line which means the Wildcats won’t leave many points out there at the stripe.  Boise State is good in these areas but not quite as good and I also think Boise State has a tougher time getting into their offense sets because they don’t move the ball as well.  Boise State will struggle to get in the paint and score on Northwestern which means the Broncos are likely to become reliant on the three point shot here.  Boise State CAN win games like that, the Broncos are 60th nationally in three point shooting but in a game that’s likely to have a lower variance I prefer the team that can score via their offense over the one that’s probably going to REQUIRE the three point shot falling to win this game.  On paper Boise State has a slight rebounding edge but I think Northwestern is grittier and offsets that by being a tougher team.  On paper Marcus Shaver might be the best player but I prefer Boo Buie who has emerged as a guy with a knack for making play after play.  There’s still some truth to the old adage “guards win in March” and I think Buie and company make up the better backcourt.  Northwestern is a better version of Boise State, the Big Ten is still a superior conference to the Mountain West and since we just need to “pick the winner” I think Northwestern wins this game more than five times out of ten.

I don’t put a ton of stock into the Mountain West struggling in the NCAA Tournament but it’s still worth noting Mountain West teams have been horrific ATS in the Big Dance.  I think the Mountain West is as good as it’s been in a long time this season but Northwestern has shown ability to defend the better teams in the Big Ten so I think Boise State might struggle without a legitimate big here.  Boise State has a number of skilled players but what the Broncos lack is someone that can back guys down and score with their back to the basket. Northwestern is outstanding at defending the lane, they were able to slow down Zack Edey when they beat Purdue earlier this season and, while Purdue missed A LOT of open threes, it’s still impressive Northwestern was able to force Purdue into that many three point shots when they have one of the top post players in the country.  Boise State doesn’t have anything that comes even close to resembling Edey (not many do) but that’s important because against a guy like Edey Northwestern has to live with Purdue getting open shots.  Boise State, without a legit post presence, won’t get as much respect from Northwestern meaning the Wildcats won’t have to sell out as much and shouldn’t give up as many open threes (as they would if Boise State had someone that could really back guys down and get to the rim).  Northwestern plays tenacious perimeter defense so what I see happening here is the efficient shot for Boise State being a three and many of those threes being contested.  It’s certainly possible Boise State shoots the lights out and wins this game but I think that’s the LEAST likely scenario and it’s hard to see a Boise win if the Broncos aren’t red hot from deep. 

I’m putting a lot of trust in fellow Albany native Boo Buie here.  Northwestern is going to need him to make play after play to win this game but he’s shown time and time again he’s capable of doing so. With advantages in many other areas I’m willing to put four units in Buie’s hands here.  Play on Northwestern -125 for 4% (or 4 units)