Recent Play Details

3% Take Washington (#551)

I’ve been betting against the Mavericks as favorites consistently this season, and it’s paid real dividends for myself & my clients.  The results do not lie.  Dallas is a woeful 5-17-1 ATS at -5 or higher.  Fading Dallas laying points has cashed at a 77% clip, full season.   They’re cashing at a 40% clip against sub .500 foes, not taking care of business against weaker opposition.  Dallas is playing without a pair of key role players in Maxi Kleber and Christian Wood, neither of whom moves the needle when it comes to pointspread adjustments but BOTH of whom have a big impact on the floor (and an equally big negative impact when they’re not).  And this will be their 13th game since New Year’s Eve; a truly grueling scheduling stretch for a slumping team (1-4 SU/ATS in their last five games) with limited depth. 

Washington has only played nine games during that same span; a healthier, fresher team than the Mavericks these days.  They’ve won two straight and three of out five; a much deeper team with Bradley Beal back in the lineup, even with Kristaps Porzingas out and after the Rui Hachimura trade to the Lakers.  They’ve got a good track record against Dallas: 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including three outright upsets; all at +6 or higher – the same pointspread range we’re seeing Dallas in today.   Live dog here!  Take the Wizards.

Line Parameter: 3% at +7 or higher, 2% at 6.5 or lower