Recent Play Details

We had the Astros over their team total against Taylor Hearn in his last start. The final box score says that Hearn only allowed three runs. That box score is correct. But if you watched the game along with us, you'd know that Yordan Alvarez had a home run pulled back at the top of the wall. Hearn was six inches away from giving up five earned runs instead of three (and probably getting the bullpen involved earlier, etc.), and we were six inches away from turning a losing wager into a winning one.

We're going to bank on Hearn not being so fortunate today. Hitting conditions are expected to be very good in Detroit this afternoon with temperatures in the mid-70s and winds blowing out to center. Hearn's actual ERA is 5.37, but his expected ERA is half-a-run higher at 5.87, according to Baseball Savant. His weighted on-base average is .364, but his expected weighted on-base average is .388 (bottom-7 percentile in baseball this season). He's allowed 3+ runs in five of his last six starts.

No one is going to confuse Detroit for being a good offensive team any time soon, but they do hit lefties better than right-hand pitchers. Detroit's .252 batting average against lefty pitching is No. 10 in baseball this season.

This is the Tigers' ninth-straight day with a game (they don't have an off day 'til Thursday) and their bullpen has gotten plenty of work. On Wednesday, the Tigers used two position players to close their game against the White Sox. Will Vest and Tyler Alexander each threw 30 pitches last night, so they are likely unavailable for tonight.

This is a good spot for the Tigers' bats to gain some confidence against a not-very-good lefty pitcher. Play the over, which is widely available at 8.5 (-120) at the time of posting.