Recent Play Details

3% Take Dallas – Phoenix UNDER (#551-552)

My clients and I have lost betting the Under in each of the first two games of this series.  That said, from a pace perspective, both games have been just fine for Under bettors.  Unfortunately, the Suns have hit shots at a ridiculous (and unsustainable) clip; an effective field goal percentage of better than 73% in Game 2 thanks to 65% shooting from the field, 13-25 from three point range, including a 16-19 shooting effort in the fourth quarter.   And both teams hit everything from the free throw line as well, a combined 38-45 from the charity stripe.

The Game 1 pace was exactly as expected, a pace rating of 94 for the game – again, slower than any team in the NBA averaged this season.  But, much like in Game 2, the shooting efficiency was off the charts: 27 made three pointers, a combined 84% free throw shooting, Phoenix hitting 50% from the floor; Dallas 47%.   It’s surely worth noting that the betting markets have adjusted UPWARDS on this total in both games since Game 1, despite the slower pace in this series.

Now the series shifts to Dallas, where the Mavs have been Under machines all season; including a 21-7 mark to the Under in games totaled in this range, between 210 and 219.5.  Luka: “I think our defense cost us the game. Our start on the defensive end was terrible and we’ve got to change that.  I know we can play way better defense.”  The pace in each of the first two games was just fine for Under bettors, and tonight we should expect fewer shots to fall after two remarkable offensive showings in the first two games.  Dallas has some fight left in ‘em, and I expect that to show on the defensive end of the court this evening.   Take the UNDER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 217 or higher, 2% at 216.5 or lower