3% Take San Diego (#953) (list Cease for San Diego)

The Padres have done an excellent job of winning the ‘rubber match’ in early season play, consistently winning the series finale when the two teams have split the first two games. They’re 5-2-1 in their last eight series, including ‘rubber game’ wins against the Dodgers, Reds and the same Cubs team they’ll face today. 

The Cubs bats have gone cold, scoring only 34 runs while going only 5-6 in their last 11 games; producing three runs or less seven times during that span.  That’s bad news against Dylan Cease, who has allowed two runs or less while pitching six innings or more five times in his last six trips to the hill – he’s worth ‘listing’ here.  Current Cubs are a combined 4-46 (.087) against Cease in their careers.

The Padres bats ARE hitting, pounding out six runs or more five times in their last seven games, winning all five of those contests.  They’re 4-0-1 in their last five series; worth backing at a very reasonable ‘short favorite’ price on getaway day at Wrigley.  Take the Padres.

Line Parameter: 3% at -135 or lower., 2% at -136 or higher