3%) TORONTO RL (+1.5 runs) The Phillies are 5-0 in Nola's last five starts but three of those five victories came by a single run. Last time out, Nola walked four batters while lasting only four innings. Nola also walked four (in five innings) the last time that he faced the Jays. He gave up four runs. He got a lot of run support that day but doesn't figure to be as fortunate on Wednesday. Bassitt's overall numbers are bad but he's off a quality start and has now allowed three or fewer earned runs in four of his past five starts. He's also 3-0 (team is 4-0) with a 1.59 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Phillies. Grab the extra +1.5 runs. *Reduce to 2% if higher than -160