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4* OVER 208

(Good as a 4% to 210.5, from 211 to 213.5 play as a 3%. If 214 and higher pass)

The Cavaliers just played the Magic, and the Celtics just played the Heat, and there is some significance in that when it comes to Game 1 of this series and this total. The fact is that the Magic and Heat were #3 and #4 in the NBA for the lowest points allowed per game this season.

That said, let's now look at the totals when these teams met in the regular season. The posted totals were 226.5 and 227.5, and then the 3rd and final meeting was 217.5 (but the Cavs were without Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus). The point is that now we are dealing with a total that is so much lower, and, of course, playoff time means an adjustment, but this adjustment is almost 20 points when you consider that the Cavs do have Mitchell and Strus now.

Now, of course, I know Boston has a solid defense, and certainly Cleveland does, too. However, look at the prior totals when these teams met and then also consider that the Celtics will likely push hard in the first game of this series and want to establish themselves at home immediately. I look for this to translate to a fast pace and plenty of points. Boston has scored 124 ppg last 19 home games!

Cleveland has scored 111 ppg in the last 9 wins. Of course, I am not saying the Cavs win this game as they are a big dog for a reason, but the point is both teams are coming off series that were lower-scoring, but both are fully capable of putting up bigger points. This posted total just came down too low, in my opinion, and we have great value on the other side of this large adjustment to the posted total. Not including OT points, of course, but 8 straight meetings between these teams have totaled 209 points or more.

Remember, the NBA outcomes certainly have a lot to do with match-ups, and these teams, unlike their prior match-ups with Orlando and Miami, respectively, have a tendency toward higher-scoring games when they match up. It will not be a high-scoring shootout, but this total is just too low, as I predict at least 210s and possibly 220s, given all of the above!