Celtics -1.5 games v Cavaliers (-550) + Thunder +1.5 v Mavericks (-185) Final Price -122

Celtics -1.5 games

I expect the Celtics to make quick work of Cleveland in this series, even without Porzingis.  The Cavs barely escaped their series against Orlando, and Orlando is the 4th worst offensive team in the playoffs.  What's crazier, is that Cleveland is the 2nd worst.  They are extremely limited offensively, and despite their solid defense, Boston is the #1 offense in the league this season.  Boston went 2-1 against Cleveland in the regular season with the one loss being the insane Dean Wade game so the only time Cleveland was able to beat Boston, it took a once-in-a-season performance from a bench player.  The Cavs are dealing with an injury to Jarett Allen with his bruised ribs that have kept him out of games against Orlando, and without him their roster gets even more thin.  The Celtics have the perimeter defense to make Mitchell work hard for his points, and while he's averaging 28.7 points in the playoffs, Jarrett Allen is their second-leading scorer at 17 points, and he's banged up, and Garland and Mobley are the only other guys averaging double-digit points.  Cavs could get 1, maybe 2 games, but I don't see how they win more games than that.

Thunder +1.5

I think the Thunder win this series, but I'll take the +1.5 in the series to be safe if it gets to Game 7.  The Thunder have a nice recipe to beat the Mavericks as the Mavericks depend on Luka and Kyrie for their scoring, and while they combined for 56 points per game against the Clippers, their next leading scorer is PJ Washington with 10.8 points, and I think they actually have a problem with Maxi Kleiber being out for this series as he was a nice piece to use to stretch the floor.  The Mavericks are going to struggle defensively in this series as Luka and Kyrie won't be able to deal with SGA, and Giddey and Dort will find success as well.  I don't think the Thunder will be able to completely shut down Luka, but Dort absolutely wrecked Brandon Ingram last series and he'll be physical and a nuisance on defense.  Chet will have a huge advantage on offense against Gafford and Lively, and the Thunder just have more guys on their rotation who can score and defend.  With Kleiber out, it gets very thin, very fast for Dallas outside of Kyrie, Luka, I like the Thunder to win the series, but I'll take the +1.5 games.