close icon
popup icon
Free Picks
Discounts &
Get $15 Free
The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(951) Washington Nationals at (952) Miami Marlins

Event:
(951) Washington Nationals at (952) Miami Marlins
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
April 28, 2024 1PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
-125
Play:
2% – (951) Washington Nationals at (952) Miami Marlins Washington Nationals Total Over 3.5 (-125) Action
Result:
Win
Analysis

These teams play again tomorrow in Miami, so even though this is a 1:40pm ET start time, this is not your typical "getaway day" situation. Washington's offense has been very capable thus far. The only team that truly shut down the Nationals' offense was the Dodgers. If you remove Washington's six games against the Dodgers, the Nationals are averaging 4.2 runs per game (which would put them above contenders like the Astros, Rays, Blue Jays, Giants and Mariners). It's a small sample size, but Washington has enjoyed success against Ryan Weathers in the past. They tagged him for five runs on seven hits and two walks in 6.0 innings last year. Entering Sunday, Weathers is in the bottom-third among pitchers in chase rate, walk rate and strikeout rate. In his last start against the Braves, Weathers gave up three runs on six hits with three walks and just one strikeout in 5.2 innings. His expected ERA (4.37) is over a full run higher than his actual ERA (3.16). Dating back to the beginning of last season, Washington has the fourth-best strikeout rate in baseball against left-hand pitching. We've got the road team guaranteed to get nine at-bats that has already scored 14 runs in the first two games of this series.

close popup icon