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Kyle Anthony

Kyle Anthony

(24309) Karine Silva at (24310) Ariane Lipski

Event:
(24309) Karine Silva at (24310) Ariane Lipski
Sport/League:
MMA
Date/Time:
April 27, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
1.5%
Odds:
135
Play:
1.5% – Ariane Lipski +135
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Giving me plus money on Ariane here? Sure, I'll take it. 

Now I completely understand Karine Silva is lethal on the ground with high level BJJ and finishing upside. Out of her 17 MMA wins she supports a 100% finish rate. 9 submissions & 8 knockout victories, which includes going 3-0 in the UFC with all wins coming in round 1 by submission. The books continue taking in money on Silva, moving line from Lipski as a favorite to now +135 dog. Believe it's a slight overreaction to Karine's UFC wins and overlooking the clear improvements Ariane's made fight after fight. After Lipski's loss to Priscila Cachoeira in 2022 she switched up camps moving fulltime to American Top Team in Florida and boy it's done wonders for her overall. A massive weakness was her takedown defense prior to switching camps and now she continues displaying big steps of improvement. On a 3-0 run in the UFC since changing camps but more impressively Ariane's defended every single takedown in those 3 fights. Over that span she successfully defended all 25 takedown attempts… all 25! Incredible. This could close out Silva's main path to victory getting Lipski down to the ground, while Lipski currently has a 79% takedown defense rate. I do believe Silva struggles getting Ariane down providing the landscape for a stand up bout. If it stays on the feet, Lipski should absolutely piece Karine up. Ariane's got far better striking, slicker combinations, faster hands and better footwork to outland Silva whom has very basic combinations. 

Like the value on the Queen Of Violence in this spot.

 

1.5% Client Play: Ariane Lipski +135 

 

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