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I'll start this breakdown by saying… this is not a high level heavyweight fight but with that said, more importantly there's an angle here and path for our guy Caio Machado. 

Overall there's 2 main advantages for Machado Saturday night and it's aggression & volume. At times he'll wildly throw yet his striking output is consistently high in a division were many can't push a pace. In his Dana White's Contender Series bout he landed 121 strikes which is very impressive for a heavyweight. Crashing the pocket with volume forcing action can smother offense for guys seeking the one big shot as he banks rounds. Another impressive showing was Machado's UFC debut against Mick Parkin whom was a (-425) favorite, Caio fought well over expectations having a very competitive fight in which Caio lost 29-28 on all cards. Going back and rewatching that match up, arguably Caio won out landing Parkin 76-39, but the difference maker was Parkin's 3 takedowns with over 6 mins of control time. Also impressive how Machado was able to get up from tough positions on the mat displaying a scrambling ability getting back to his feet. He does have a black belt in Jiu Jitsu utilizing his skills to either latch in a submission or attack a limb to reverse position. Don't believe Mayes can push a high wrestling pace with his limited gas tank and overall extremely sloppy in grappling situations. Stats also support this as in the UFC Don'Tale's not much of a wrestler… besides when he fought Josh Parisian whom he took down 6 times… now for reference if you're not familiar with Josh, he went 2-5 in the organization and could be one of the worst heavyweights on the planet. Now besides for that fight, Mayes has only landed 1 other takedown out of 8 UFC fights. Not a path Mayes takes historically and believe this plays out on the feet where pace, pressure and volume should be highly in favor of Caio. Taking it a step further, Don'Tale is notoriously known for low striking output and lapses in action. Machado's UFC debut he landed 76 strikes, while over 8 UFC fights Mayes only once topped 76 strikes. Statistically over the 6 fights that went all 3 rounds Mayes landed 32, 59, 25, 47, 79, & 29 strikes. This should be an absolute weakness where the quicker guy with higher output in Caio will dictate the pace. Optically always pushing forward should further assist in winning rounds while Mayes struggles keeping up. 

4% Client Play: Caio Machado -115