2% Cleveland Guardians (+100) over Boston — w/ Carrasco & Bernardino — 

I have to lean with my Guardians in this one, especially after they got shutout yesterday in game 3 of the series. It is hard to imagine a Boston team holding this top 10 scoring offense that low in consecutive games, especially when this is the 3rd time Bernandino has pitched in this series (1st start). 

Not only has Boston put up < 3.5 runs/game at Fenway this season, but prior to yesterday’s game their bullpen had allowed 35 runs in 35 IP (earned & unearned). Plus, the Red Sox have allowed nearly 6.5 runs/game @ home this season.

Cleveland has two big advantages here … there is only 1 team in the league (ARI) that has a better batting average as a team against LHP, with Cleveland hitting .296 as a team! Plus Carrasco has been pitching pretty well in his return to the Guardians. He has had some issues with the walks, which has limited how long he has been able to go into games, but Cleveland also has one of the best bullpens to back him up. In Carrasco’s L2 starts he has thrown 7.2 IP, but has allowed just 2 ER’s, despite a 1:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio. 

This is the first time this season that Cleveland has even been held under 2 runs in a game, let alone being shutout, and I expect them to bounce back.