3% NY Mets (-135) over Pittsburgh — w/ Falter & Severino — 

Falter is the biggest piece in this play, while he has had 2 better starts after his disastrous debut, the Mets are one of the best teams in the league so far against LHP. They are hitting nearly .300 as a team (3rd in the MLB) and are 3-1 in games started by LHP. 

Just like Falter, Severino struggled in his debut this season, but has allowed just 2 ERs in his L10 IP on just 4 hits, including the game against KC where he allowed just 1 hit in 5 IP. 

The NY Mets bullpen has been impressive as well, posting a 2.55 ERA @ H this season combined. So even if Severino has some concerns again, the bullpen and the bats should be able to keep them competitive in this game. The Mets have put up over 7 runs/game over the L7 and are hitting an astounding .313 as a team over that span! 

The Mets are also 7-1 against the Pirates on their home field in the L3Y.