With an 0-2 record and a 4.55 ERA, the casual observer would assume that Cincinnati's Hunter Greene is off to a not-so-great start to the season. The advanced analytics suggest that he has been a lot better than his trading card numbers would indicate. Greene enters Saturday in the top-20th percentile among pitchers in expected ERA, expected batting average allowed, chase rate and strikeout rate. Four of his five starts have come at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. In his lone road start this season, he allowed one run on four hits with eight strikeouts in Seattle. When pitching on the road last season, Greene had a better record, better ERA, better WHIP and better walk compared to pitching at home. We'll gladly back him as an underdog in a pitcher-friendly environment. The Reds have done a great job resting their bullpen the last few days, using two relievers on Thursday and two relievers on Friday. No one is working on a back-to-back, and everyone should be available out of the 'pen on Saturday. Andrew Knizer is the only member of the Rangers' lineup that has ever faced Greene before, so he will have the advantage of unfamiliarity on his side as the Rangers' hitters try to hit his 100 mile per hour fastball.