The Celtics lost game two outright as 14 point favorites. I expect them to bounce back in a huge way. On the season, the Celtics were the best at defending the corner three, but are allowing the Heat to shoot 53% from that range. I expect the Heat to regress from three, I do not expect them to make 23 out of 43 attempts against the Celtics again.

The Heat struggle going from a road game to a home game, 7-10 straight up and 6-11 ATS, if they are the dog in the situation…they are 0-4 SU and ATS, losing by an average of 11.5 points per game.

As a home dog in general, the Heat are 0-10 SU, 1-9 ATS, losing by an average margin of 12.8 points per game.

On the Celtics side, they should continue to dominate the paint and do what they have been doing. They just ran into a hot shooting Heat team in game two.

Historical trends back the Celtics in this situation, including a 20-0 playoff trend!

Since 2016, in round one of the playoffs, road favorites who failed to cover the previous game as favorites greater than four points are 20-0 straight up and against the spread! This fits the bill for the Celtics in game three!

Give me the Celtics to win by double digits! Okay up to -12.