Tony Finn

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  MLBMLB Futures Pitching Props3:00am EDT - Apr 30/2019
  THE PLAY: UNDER 20.5 Wins/ UNDER 48.5 Saves

   

  2019 MLB Regular Season Individual Most Props

  The story of the Major League Baseball closer is not unlike other positions in the history of the league. It is without question an evolutionary saga. Furthermore the gradual development of MLB something/anything, especially from a simple to a more complex form, is forever.

  It is somewhat irresponsible to pinpoint a moment in the Major League Baseball time-warp to state that the "save" morphed into something static. Rather transformed on a specific date in which one can etch in baseball stone.  But for the purpose of this MLB Futures article we will start years after the term save was used by general managers in the late 1950's. As well a time period after sports columnist Jerome Holtzman was the first to give specific criteria to saves in the early 1960's.

  Birth of today's closer

  In 1976 the first true fireman was born when Bruce Sutter broke into the majors with the Chicago Cubs. Unlike the other one and two-innings, eighth and ninth frame pitchers that were long relievers or starters in their career Sutter never started a game at the major league level.

  When Sutter led the National League in saves with 37 and won the Cy Young in 1979, he only pitched 101.1 innings in his 62 appearances. By comparison, the three guys immediately behind him on the save charts that year all recorded at least 130 innings.

  When Sutter saved 45 games in 1984, he logged the total of 45 in just 122.2 innings of work. The right-hander was the second player in history to save as many as 45 games after Dan Quisenberry just a year prior in 1983.

  Sutter was the transition from the MLB neanderthalensis stage to the MLB sapiens era which we now exist in. And in truth the evolution of the closer species became even more specialized by manager Tony La Russa.  The Hall of Fame manager was the baseball scientist that created starter-turned-reliever Dennis Eckersley to Frankenarm in 1988.

  Specialization of the closer role

  La Russa made Eckersley his closer, and he developed the "MLB sapien" system that was choreographed to use the role sparingly. The engineering marvel put little to no stress on the pitchers arm in a single outing.  Thus resulting in that arm being used in consecutive games. Eckersley went on to establish records for relievers with a 0.61 ERA in 1990, and did what most thought was impossible then, and in truth now, by earning the American League Cy Young and MVP awards when he saved 51 games in 1992.

  Unlike death and taxes there will be a time when the save will not be fashionable, at least by today's standards. And thus the value attached to the specialty won't be financially and award rewarding like it is in today's game.

  The stage is being designed and eventually will be set where now-starters and closers will diminish in role and numbers. The specialty of the pair has already begun to fade.

  Introduction of the "Opener" experiment

  Last year the Tampa Bay Buccaneers began what has been titled an “Opener” strategy. A theory where a manager uses a number of relievers throughout a game rather than a specified starter that is asked to pitch 5-6 plus innings.

  Claiming that the "Opening" experiment could initiate a revolution, or evolution, in Major League Baseball isn't a stretch.

  Zach Kram wrote a piece for The Ringer, an SBNation affiliate portal titled "Tampa Bay’s “Opener” Experiment Could Spark a Baseball Revolution" last May. Kram noted that Rays' manager Kevin Cash’s strategic was brilliant.

  "Rays pitcher Sergio Romo struck out the side against the Angels on Saturday, then struck out three more batters in 1 1/3 innings the following afternoon. It was an unusual pairing of performances for one small reason: Romo had never struck out three batters on consecutive days before. And it was an unusual pairing of performances for one massive, potentially paradigm-shifting reason: Romo served as the modern era’s first designated “opener.”

  Kram typed that "Sergio Romo’s short starts may have been a one-weekend experiment, but the philosophy behind them, like the one behind the closer when it was introduced, should expand to MLB at large."

  A three paragraph passage in his article noted that "Rays pitcher Sergio Romo struck out the side against the Angels on Saturday, then struck out three more batters in 1 1/3 innings the following afternoon. It was an unusual pairing of performances for one small reason: Romo had never struck out three batters on consecutive days before. And it was an unusual pairing of performances for one massive, potentially paradigm-shifting reason: Romo served as the modern era’s first designated “opener.”

  The new terminology of "Opener" as a managers pitching strategy has in short stuck.

  The "Opener" strategy executed

  "Romo has started two games after making his first 588 career appearances as a reliever. But he was doing so on consecutive days, with the express purpose of clearing the top of the Angels’ lineup before making way for pitchers—normally starters—who would give Tampa Bay more innings. Romo was technically starting, but not in the traditional sense of the term. He was opening—the games, and, perhaps, a futuristic path to ordering a pitching staff" Ray stated.

  "The plan worked on Saturday, as the right-handed Romo pitched one perfect inning, then left-handed rookie Ryan Yarbrough tossed 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball in Tampa Bay’s 5-3 win."

  Which pitchers - and how they were used - a season ago in the "Opener" system was different from team to team and manager to manager but it caught on.

  Influence on MLB Futures

  The aforementioned revolution/evolution of Major League Baseball is never ending and this alone is important to understand when accessing MLB Futures.

  Most wins by any single pitcher will carry less emphasis moving forward.  Thus offering starters a number of sabbaticals throughout a season will become more common. If for nothing else to simply reduce the number of innings across a 162-game season. Especially for a team that figures to be a part of the playoffs which expands the wear and tear on a pitchers arm. 

  Most average losses by any one pitcher in a single season will decline by number.  The focus on an individual pitcher taking part in more games but with a reduction in total innings and pitches thrown.

  My belief is that there will also be less total saves on average by a single reliever in the future.  The late innings, in this scenario the ninth inning, becoming more predicated by matchup. Managers will employee righty against right and lefty versus lefty, rather than a single fireman carrying the ninth inning weight regardless batter.

  While strikeouts per nine innings have increased in dramatic fashion the last half decade this trend will not continue. Expect less "swinging for the fences" with a focus on a higher percentage of contact by a hitter.  The theory of putting the ball in play and placing pressure on defenses has recently found success. The Kansas City Royals won the 2015 World Series with the philosophy.  Those same Royals stole bases and had a three headed monster in the bullpen.   

  Expect less complete games by starting pitchers as well and if for no other reason than seeing less strike outs resulting in more base runners. As a result more pitchers throwing from with stress from the stretch position.

  2019 Future Proposition recommendations

  Using the latest MLB Futures chart from the World's Largest Race and Sportsbook, Westgate of Las Vegas, five 2019 MLB Props I recommend are as follows:

  1. Most Wins by: Any Pitcher
  UNDER 20.5 (-110)

  Only two pitchers won 20-plus games a season ago. Blake Snell won 21 for Tampa and Corey Kluber won 20 for Cleveland.

  2. Most Save By: Any Pitcher
  UNDER 48.5 (-110)

  One pitcher saved more than 48.5 games in 2019. Note that only one pitcher registered more than 43 saves. Edwin Diaz of Seattle recorded 57 saves. The second most saves was 43 by Wade Davis of the Chicago Cubs.

 Tony "Fish" Finn has been advising clients for over two decades and after nearly 22 years he continues to lead a group of both North American and World SManage Plays
 

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