Analysis

Six of the last seven meetings between the Packers and Falcons have gone over the total, but this is the first time these NFC foes have met since Atlanta's 25-24 home victory in September 2023. For the second week in a row (Green Bay this week, Detroit last week), one of the Thursday Night Football participants is facing an uphill climb on a short week. With the Lions' loss in Buffalo last week, teams that went to overtime the week prior then have to play on Thursday have gone 6-26 against the spread since 2000 (courtesy of NFL analyst ClevTA). Green Bay earned a come-from-behind win over the Jets, but injuries and attrition are becoming a major storyline for the Packers. Nose tackle Javon Hargrave did not play against New York. Wide receiver Jayden Reed was taken off the field in a cart after suffering a neck injury and spent Sunday night in a New Jersey hospital. Right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele was on the injury report before the game then potentially suffered another serious leg injury during the game. Fellow offensive linemen Aaron Banks and Donovan Jennings were both injured during the game, and Green Bay did not have a single offensive lineman available to come off the bench by the end of the contest. At one point, the Packers' coaching staff discussed using tight end Tucker Kraft exclusively on the offensive line. Green Bay's defense was on the field for 72 plays as the Jets maintained possession for nearly 38 minutes. There's no way we can lay a full touchdown with the Packers in their current state. Early reports suggest Michael Penix Jr. will make his season debut for the Falcons after missing the first two weeks. We're not overly-optimistic on Atlanta's outlook this season, but Penix Jr. simply can't be any worse than what the Falcons got out of Cooper Rush over the first two weeks. Against the Panthers and Steelers, Rush combined to go 22-of-39 (56.4-percent) for 229 passing yards with one touchdown, four interceptions and five sacks with an adjusted QBR of 5.2 (out of 100). For comparison's sake, Penix Jr. had a rough season in 2025 and still finished with a QBR of 57.9 in nine games. Even if Penix Jr. has some rust to shake off, his potential return would usher in some optimism in the Falcons' passing game and the Thursday-night-after-overtime trend is hard to ignore.
Play Atlanta Falcons

How much of an improvement can an Offensive Player of the Year and First-Team All-Pro realistically make from one season to the next? Jaxon Smith-Njigba is putting those questions to the test. After leading the NFL in receiving yards a year ago, Smith-Njigba has 50 more receiving yards and four more touchdowns through the first two games of the 2026 season than he had last year (Courtesy Underdog NFL). The Seahawks' secondary continues to remind Seattle natives of the Legion of Boom era from a decade ago. On downfield throws of 10+ air yards through the first two games, Seattle's defense has allowed a 25.0-percent completion rate on 3.7 yards per attempt with no touchdowns and four interceptions. And that's with starting safety Nick Emmanwori only playing a handful of snaps as he recovers from an ankle injury. Emmanwori projects to be back in the starting lineup this week as Seattle heads to Washington, who will have to get used to playing without starting QB Jayden Daniels once again. Daniels suffered a dislocated left elbow in Sunday's loss to the Cowboys, which is essentially the same injury he suffered in Week 9 of last season. He "only" missed four weeks when it happened in 2025, but with this being the second time it's happened in less than a calendar year, some additional measures may be needed. Washington had covered the number in four-straight meetings before the Seahawks put a stop to that with an emphatic 38-14 road win in Landover last November. Seattle led 28-0 after 25 minutes as Sam Darnold went 21-of-24 through the air for 330 passing yards and four touchdowns. Since Week 11 of the 2023-24 season, the Seahawks have gone 19-5 straight-up, 17-5-2 against the spread away from home. Since the beginning of last season, Seattle is 7-1 against the number as a road favorite and the only team to cover the spread against the Seahawks during that time was Tennessee, who scored a backdoor touchdown with 0:43 left to sneak inside the number as a double-digit 'dog last November. Seahawks' reserve QB Drew Lock has performed well thus far, but asking him to cover a seven-point spread on the road is a tall task. Instead, we're going to look toward the over as Marcus Mariota has plenty of experience in this system. Washington's first two games this season have gone over the total. The Commanders played eight games last season where Mariota was either the starter or saw significant playing time. The over went 6-2 in those contests. Removing Washington's Week 18 clash against the Eagles last season where there was nothing on the line, this total of 40 that we're seeing on Monday night would be the lowest total in a Commanders game since Christmas Eve 2023. After seeing what Lock and Smith-Njigba have done thus far, we're not sure that low total is justified.
Play the Over

Joe Burrow missed both of last year's games against the Steelers, so this will be his first contest against the black-and-gold in quite a while. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh split their meetings last year with each team protecting its home turf. Joe Flacco was the Bengals’ starting QB in both of those contests. The Bengals sit atop the AFC North as the division's lone 2-0 team. It certainly wasn't pretty, but Cincinnati earned a 20-6 road win in Houston last week. The Texans outgained the Bengals by 107 yards and had ten more first downs (22-12), but Cincinnati's defense made the necessary plays when it mattered most as Houston went 0-for-4 in the red zone. Speaking of "it wasn't pretty," Pittsburgh laid one of the biggest eggs of the weekend against the Patriots. The Steelers' offense finished with 235 total yards on 3.5 yards per play while going 2-of-12 on third down. Aaron Rodgers finished with no touchdowns, one interception and four sacks before finishing the game on the bench as Mason Rudolph took the final snaps. Over the last four meetings, the average closing total in these Pittsburgh-Cincinnati games has been 46.8 (and remember, Joe Flacco was the QB for two of those). So even with Joe Burrow back in the lineup for the Bengals, we've seen quite the downward adjustment with this week's total opening at 42.5 at most 'books. In our opinion, it may not have gone down far enough. Newly-acquired wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. missed last week's game against the Patriots with a foot injury, and DK Metcalf no longer looks like a top receiver in the NFL. Per SumerSports, Metcalf has run 88 routes through the first two games, which is the third-most of any receiver in the league thus far. He's only managed eight receptions on 19 targets for 67 yards. Steelers' running back Rico Dowdle suffered a toe injury in Sunday's loss to New England and was unable to return. If Pittman Jr. remains out and Dowdle is limited, Pittsburgh becomes one of the easiest offenses in the NFL to defend.
Play the Under

This will be the first meeting between the Jets and Lions since December 2022 when Detroit earned a 20-17 road win in the Meadowlands. We'll admit that the Jets look improved in Aaron Glenn's second year at the helm, but we're inclined to side with the Lions at this opening point spread of -6.5. Detroit has extra time to prep for this one after playing in Buffalo last Thursday, while the Jets must travel following an overtime contest against the Packers. We already outlined all of Green Bay's injury struggles, so while New York was a home 'dog against the Packers last week, that quickly became a game that the Jets should have won. Detroit's offense will likely take a small step back this year after former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson left for Chicago, but that unit has largely been fine thus far. Detroit enters Week 3 in the top-10 in offensive success rate and EPA per play. Yes, New York has some new players and the Jets are healthier than they were last year, but take a look back at what their point spreads were on the road last season. New York closed as a 12.5-point 'dog at New England, a 14.5-point 'dog at Baltimore, a 13.5-point 'dog at Jacksonville and a 12.5-point 'dog at Buffalo. Now, the Lions with extra rest are laying less than a touchdown at Ford Field with a decent home field advantage? Our numbers are close, but we can only look in Detroit's direction at that reduced price.
Play Detroit Lions

EDITOR'S NOTE: Giants' QB Jaxson Dart will need season-ending surgery on the knee that he injured on Monday night against the Rams. James Winston is expected to get the start in this game, but the Giants are reportedly exploring some options for the rest of the season. Each of the last four meetings between the Titans and Giants have stayed under the total, but this is the first contest between Tennessee and New York since September 2022 when Ryan Tannehill and Daniel Jones were under center for each team. MetLife Stadium has plenty of critics, but Big Blue has traditionally out-performed expectations when playing at home. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, the Giants have gone 19-15-1 against the spread at home. As we go to print on Tuesday, we're missing plenty of important details after the Giants' Monday Night Football loss to the Rams. Because of the late kickoff and the injury to Giants' QB Jaxson Dart, there are very few widely-available point spreads as we go to publish. Dart took a brutal blow in the first quarter as he was essentially hit in four different places at the same time as the Rams' pass rush converged on him. Jameis Winston went 11-of-27 for 111 yards with no touchdowns, one interception and two sacks in relief. With the information that we have available, the only direction we can look in the early part of this week is toward the under. Assuming Dart is out or limited, you would imagine John Harbaugh is going to turn to a run-heavy, limit-mistakes approach in this contest. First-year head coach Robert Saleh walked into a mess in Tennessee, but he's got a decent run-stopping unit to work with. The Titans' defense was No. 8 in rushing success rate allowed last season, and Tennessee held the Eagles to 89 rushing yards on 32 attempts last week. With neither head coach putting full trust in their quarterbacks, look for a rush-heavy attack on both sides that will keep the clock moving.
Play the Under

This will be the Patriots' first trip to Jacksonville in quite a while, as the Jaguars' last "home" game in this AFC series was played in London (32-16 Jaguars win at Wembley Stadium in October 2024). Patriots' QB Drake Maye is desperately trying to find a spark in the deep passing game with AJ Brown out of the lineup. On downfield throws of 10+ air yards through the first two games, Maye is completing 46.7-percent of his passes with no touchdowns, four interceptions and a 53.5 passer rating. He completed 61.0-percent of those throws last year with 18 touchdowns, only six interceptions and a 124.2 passer rating. Maye got some good news last week when dynamic running back TreVeyon Henderson returned to the lineup, but the good vibes were short-lived. Early indications suggest Patriots' starting guard Mike Onwenu will miss the rest of the season after suffering a broken ankle against the Steelers. We're not looking to punish the Jaguars after last week's loss in Denver. Mile High is a very difficult place to play, especially at the beginning of the season when conditioning is not fully up-to-par. Jacksonville held a two-score lead in the third quarter before getting out-scored 17-0 down the stretch. Through two weeks, the Jaguars' offense sits top-5 in both overall success rate and passing success rate. And hey, that Week 1 demolition of Cleveland looks even better now after the Browns won in Tampa Bay last week.
Play Jacksonville Jaguars

Kansas City earned a 33-30 win in overtime against Indianapolis on Sunday night, but did not cover as a 6.5-point home favorite. If that phrase sounds familiar, it's because no other team in the NFL has come close to replicating the Chiefs' ability to win but not cover as a favorite over the last eight seasons. Per betting analyst Evan Abrams, Sunday's win over Indianapolis was Patrick Mahomes' 37th outright win as a favorite that failed to cover the point spread since 2018. Buffalo with Josh Allen is the next-closest team with only 24 such victories. Chiefs’ bettors may not be thrilled with some of those numbers, but Chiefs’ fans have to be pleased with what they have seen from new running back Kenneth Walker III. With 369 rushing + receiving yards thus far, Walker III is the only NFL player in the last 40 years to generate 175+ yards from scrimmage in each of his team's first two games. We made a recommendation on the under in both teams' games last week, and even though we went 0-for-2, we're looking to go back to the same well. Indianapolis pushed Kansas City a little harder than most expected last week, which forced the Chiefs to keep their foot on the gas for longer than anticipated. We expect this script to look a little closer to the Week 1 game against the Broncos where Kansas City completely took the air out of the ball in the second half. We were on pace for an under in the Dolphins-49ers game before Malik Willis connected on a home run with 2:30 remaining. Willis hit Ryan Miller for a 77-yard touchdown reception to send the game over the total after throwing for 120 yards on his first 22 attempts. In terms of a crowd advantage, the Dolphins probably won't have much to work with in this one. But the South Florida heat can certainly play a factor against a visiting team that's still shaking a little bit of rust off. Andy Reid likely won't be looking to run at a brisk pace in this one, especially after playing a full overtime period against the Colts last week.
Play the Under

Houston is 5-0 straight-up, but just 2-3 against the spread in the last five installments of this AFC South series. The average margin of victory in those five wins was 4.2 points per game. The Texans have won their last four visits to Indianapolis, but here is the margin of victory in those four wins: 1, 4, 2 and 4 points. One of our favorite plays in last week's newsletter was on the Texans as a short home favorite against the Bengals, but some surprising news broke late in the week as star wide receiver Nico Collins suffered a hamstring injury in practice and did not play. Collins has battled similar injuries in the past, and CJ Stroud looked uncomfortable against the Bengals' defense without his top target. Colts' wide receiver Alec Pierce was seen leaving the stadium in a boot with crutches following last week's loss to the Chiefs. Pierce's absence is certainly going to hurt the Colts' passing game, but we believe Indianapolis can control this game on the ground. Through the first two games, the Colts are No. 2 in EPA per rush attempt and No. 8 in rushing success rate. Daniel Jones only carried the ball one time in the Colts' Week 1 contest against Baltimore as he returned from a torn Achilles, but Jones used his legs a little bit more last week against the Chiefs. Josh Allen ran for two touchdowns against the Texans' defense in Week 1, and Jones had a solid game against Houston last year (he played in the first one, missed the second one). If Collins is out or limited once again, we've got a decent sample size of what Houston's offense looks like when Stroud doesn't have his top target. It’s not pretty.
Play Indianapolis Colts

This is the first meeting between the Browns and Panthers since Cleveland earned a 26-24 road win in Charlotte in September 2022. It's been a rough couple of years for the Dawg Pound, but the Browns are 6-4 against the spread over their last ten games following last week's outright upset win in Tampa Bay. In the court of public opinion, Deshaun Watson isn't going to win many battles at the moment. There are plenty of people that wouldn't mind seeing him fail, and he's not going to get the benefit of doubt in many situations. But in terms of actual numbers and the betting market, you have to remember that this is a guy who has appeared in just 21 games over the last six seasons. That's it. Prior to Week 1 against the Jaguars, Watson's last regular season start was in October 2024. He looked much more comfortable last week against the Bucs, going 24-of-30 for 238 yards with two touchdowns, no interceptions and only two sacks. If Watson can maintain that level of play, Cleveland's offense will look like a completely different unit compared to what the Browns have produced in recent years. Panthers' head coach Dave Canales and QB Bryce Young are making a concentrated effort to push the ball down the field. In 2025, Young averaged 6.9 air yards per attempt and just 7.1-percent of his passes were considered deep balls (20+ air yards). So far through two games, Young is averaging 10.2 yards per attempt and 15.1-percent of his passes have traveled 20+ air yards. We're not expecting to see another 59-37 contest like we saw between the Bears and Panthers in Week 1, but we wouldn't be shocked at all if this game turned into a high-scoring shootout.
Play the Over

The Chargers lost outright as a 9.5-point favorite in Week 1 against the Cardinals, then lost outright as a 6.5-point favorite against the Raiders in Week 2. Per NFL betting analyst Evan Abrams, the Chargers join the 2022 Bengals as the second team to lose each of its first two games as a 6+ point favorite in the Super Bowl era. Cero. Null. Nula. Noll. Nolla. Nul. Nada. Nyet. In whatever the language, the positive impact to date that new Chargers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has had on the Justin Herbert-led offense is zero, nothing, or just a plain no. Back-to-back 26-14 home losses (odd, there, no?) at SoFi to the Cardinals and Raiders - games most assumed the Bolts would win comfortably - are creating a worry in the fan base that Jim Harbaugh might have erred in this hire. It’s still early, yes, but we’re still waiting to see some of the motion, uptempo, and quick releases expected from Herbert and this offense with their new and ballyhooed coordinator, and things need to get fixed in a hurry with playoff entries from last season on deck for the next six weeks. The one semi-positive for the new offense has been the emergence of second-year North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton, who looks like the new bellcow for Harbaugh after a career-best 92 rushing yards last Sunday, though it’s Herbert who needs to get in sync ASAP with the sock-less McDaniel after tossing three picks and looking generally lost through the first two weeks. Compounding matters for Harbaugh is this trip to the Niagara frontier, where the Bills look especially energized in their shiny new Highmark Stadium after scoring 77 points across their first two wins. As opposed to the Bolts’ struggles under McDaniel, Buffalo is embracing a new emphasis on the vertical attack as championed by first-year head coach Joe Brady, now implementing his full vision after serving as Sean McDermott’s OC in recent years. No arguments from Josh Allen, who among other things is dealing with defensive pressure better than ever, as the Lions found out last Thursday when Allen tossed a pair of TD passes vs. the blitz in the first half alone when Buffalo would race to an unassailable 27-10 lead at the break. It’s pick-your-poison for opponents, too, as RB James Cook continues to motor almost without impediment, as the case vs. Detroit when rambling for 135 rushing yards, well more than half of those yards even before first contact. Until Herbert starts to have some success passing downfield (he didn’t complete a pass of more than 20 air yards all game vs. the Raiders), we’re hard-pressed to see the Chargers keeping pace.
Play Buffalo Bills