Analysis

This is the first meeting between the Flames and Chanticleers since Liberty earned a 37-34 win in overtime in the Cure Bowl. Jamey Chadwell was patrolling the Coastal Carolina sidelines in that game, but he is now a resident of Lynchburg where he's hoping to elevate the Flames' program after a handful of disappointing seasons. Both teams are playing with equal rest on a short week, and Coach Chadwell would love to see some consistent play from first-year starting QB Deshawn Purdie, who produced his best effort in a Flames uniform in last week's 51-15 home win over Ball State. Purdie threw for three touchdowns with no interceptions and added 29 more yards on the ground against the Cardinals. Coastal is searching for its first FBS-level win since beating Georgia State on November 8. The Chants are 0-6 straight-up, 2-4 against the spread after last week's narrow loss at Delaware. If you've been following the newsletter for a while, you know our feelings when it comes to Liberty as a big favorite. Since the latter stages of the 2022 season, the Flames have gone 6-16 against the spread as a double-digit favorite with four outright upset losses. With an opening point spread of -2.5, that's not a factor on Thursday night in Conway. Also, Liberty's 20-13 loss at James Madison in the opener is aging pretty well when you consider the Dukes are 3-0 straight-up and against the spread and have out-scored their last two opponents by a combined margin of 113-16. We have no interest in betting the Flames as a big favorite, but in a contest that is essentially lined as a pick'em, Liberty has our attention.
Play Liberty

Army has won each of the last four meetings, but Temple comfortably stayed within the number as a 6.5-point road 'dog last season. The Owls' defense was well-prepared for the Knights' attack, holding Army to 250 total yards and 20 first downs. Even though last week's game against Toledo went off the rails a little bit (49-48 in overtime), Temple's rushing defense held the Rockets to 107 yards on 25 carries. That comes one week after holding Penn State to 4.35 yards per carry in the prior contest. Temple has been playing with a two-quarterback system all season thus far. Normal-starter Jaxon Smolik suffered a foot injury in last week's overtime loss to Toledo and did not return. Smolik is expected to return to practice this week and is questionable to play against Army, but Rutgers transfer Ajani Sheppard has taken plenty of snaps this season if Smolik is unable to go. The Owls have covered the spread in each of the first three games, and we'll look to back the cherry-and-white in this one.
Play Temple

Navy is coming off a bye, and the Midshipmen are hoping to receive some good news surrounding the injured ankle of starting QB Braxton Woodson. The senior signal caller suffered an ankle injury in the 38-30 loss at Florida Atlantic, eventually handing the reins to Jackson Gutierrez. With no structural damage reported following an MRI, Woodson is considered "week to week" and it's a matter of pain tolerance and how much mobility he can produce on the injured ankle. In games like this when you have a service academy team playing a young/first-time head coach, we always go right to the coaching directory to see what kind of experience they have defending the triple-option. UAB head coach Alex Mortensen is an offensive-minded leader who came from Nick Saban's Alabama coaching tree. It's safe to assume that he doesn't have much experience preparing for the option. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham worked in the SEC from 2017-2022, then spent two seasons in the NFL as the defensive line coach for the New Orleans Saints. It's safe to assume that he didn’t see many triple-option offenses in either of those leagues. Defensive line coach Sam Mills III arrived in Birmingham after coaching 17 seasons in the NFL. It's safe to assume that he doesn't have any experience against the option. Navy has won the last three meetings by scores of 31-6, 41-18 and 38-24. UAB also lost by 34 and 18 against Army over each of the last two years. So in the last five games against the service academies, the Blazers are 0-5 straight-up, 1-4 against the spread with an average margin of defeat at 22.8 points per game. We respect what Mortensen is building with the Blazers’ program, but Trent Dilfer left them a massive hole to dig out of.
Play Navy

Indiana has won-and-covered each of the last two meetings, but these regional foes have only met one time in the last six seasons - A 41-24 Hoosiers win in October 2024. Western Kentucky threw Curt Cignetti quite the curveball last week as the Hilltoppers essentially waved the white flag from the opening kickoff. WKU was a top-35 team in pace last season, averaging under 25 seconds in between plays. The Hilltoppers made it very clear that they simply wanted to get out of Bloomington in one piece last week. After running 82 plays against Nevada in the opener, the Hilltoppers only ran 61 plays last week against the Hoosiers and benched starting QB Rodney Tisdale Jr. so that he could get healthy before the start of C-USA play. With Indiana's defense remaining untested through three weeks, we're inclined to look toward the over in this contest. The hiring of Chip Kelly raised some eyebrows in Evanston, but the Purple 'Cats have produced 75 points in their first two games against solid competition. Veteran QB Aidan Chiles went 17-of-22 for 241 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in last week's demolition of Colorado. After jumping out to a 21-0 lead at halftime, Kelly was probably able to put a few things away in his back pocket for this contest against the Hoosiers. Cignetti is generally prepared for every one and every thing thrown his way, but an OC like Kelly always has a wrinkle or two up his sleeve.
Play the Over

Dabo Swinney got an unlikely assist from Al Roker when a weather delay halted action last Saturday in the fourth quarter just as North Carolina looked like it was about to put away the game at Death Valley. Perhaps the heavens just wanted to tweak Bill Belichick. Whatever, when action resumed nearly three hours later, the Tar Heels couldn’t jam in a TD from the Clemson 7 and the Tigers were in control thereafter. “In control” and “Tigers” have rarely been used together this season, however, especially with freshman QB Tait Reynolds, definitely not yet reminding of past Dabo QBs like Trevor Lawrence in 2018, Cade Klubnik in 2022 or even DJ Uiagalelei during brief work in 2020. Clemson had gone 24-straight drives (excluding kneel-downs) without scoring a TD with Reynolds at the controls until finally breaking through with five minutes left vs. Belichick's Tar Heels. Needless to say, this edition is a far cry from the last Clemson team that Dabo took to the Bay Area almost eight years ago when Lawrence was a freshman and the Tigers walloped Alabama 44-16 in Santa Clara to win the national title. Now, how the mighty have fallen, as Dabo is close to a pick 'em in Berkeley, though the eye test suggests the Bears might be undervalued more than a bit. Cal actually has a functioning offense under new head coach Tosh Lupoi and veteran offensive coordinator Nick Rolovich with sophomore QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele one year ahead of Reynolds in the growing pains department. Sagapolutele already has 25 career TD passes (seven of those this season) while the Bears have bounced back smartly from the opening loss to UCLA by winning back-to-back games. JKS has completed better than 70-percent of his throws with five TDs and no picks. On the bright side for Dabo, the trip to NorCal at least gets him temporarily away from the grumbling back home, as the Tigers’ 134th-ranked offense has some members of the IPTAY crowd starting to beat the war drums.
Play Cal

UCLA is making a bit of a habit traveling to College Park as an undefeated team...though, full disclosure, the last time the Bruins made the trip was in 1955 when Red Sanders was the coach and they were actually the top-ranked team in the country (really!). The Terps would avenge a loss the previous year in another high-ranked showdown at the LA Coliseum and win in a monsoon by a 7-0 score and temporarily assume the top spot in the polls (really...again!). My, how 71 years changes things! To the present, and the temperature is starting to get very warm beneath the seat of Maryland head coach Mike Locksley after the Terps' 20-game non-conference win streak was broken last week by James Franklin’s Virginia Tech. Before getting carried away by that 20 number, remember that Locksley’s non-league schedules have been decidedly soft, and this is a Big Ten game anyway - the type Locksley has been losing consistently in recent years as his 15-43 straight-up conference mark since 2018 reminds. As usual, offense doesn’t seem to be the Terps’ problem, especially gunslinger sophomore QB Malik Washington, who has passed for 340+ yards in each of the past two games. Rather, the defense that has leaked consistently vs. Big Ten foes over the years was just exposed again, this time by Hokie QB Ethan Grunkemeyer, who looked like Matthew Stafford when dissecting the Locksley D last week. More trouble could ensue vs. Bob Chesney’s very watchable Bruin attack that finally got QB Nico Iamalleava on the scoresheet last week with three TD passes in the 52-point explosion vs. Purdue. Bruin runners are churning up ground not seen in Westwood since Dick Vermeil’s Rose Bowl Bruins were operating the Veer in 1975, running wild for 379 yards against the Boilermakers as all-purposed deluxe JMU transfer RB Wayne Knight increased his TD haul to eight in three weeks. He and Nico might need to stay busy because the UCLA stop unit let Purdue QB Ryan Browne move rather freely last Saturday, but the Terps never seem to pick on the big boys, or even the semi-big boys like the Bruins. Besides, Maryland couldn’t even beat interim Tim Skipper’s lesser (much lesser) UCLA edition last October in Pasadena.
Play Maryland

The losing streak continues. Charlotte put up a good fight last week in rain-soaked Boone against App State, but the 49ers have now lost 12-straight games including one as a three-touchdown favorite against The Citadel in this year's opener. Charlotte has covered the number in back-to-back games as a big 'dog, but in our opinion, the situation played a heavy factor in each of those results. The first cover was against Ole Miss as a 44.5-point 'dog when the Rebels were clearly disinterested and ready to turn the page toward LSU. The second cover was last week's 26-21 loss to the Mountaineers in a game that was delayed by 3.5 hours and ended at 12:32am ET. Needless to say, we're not rushing to upgrade the 49ers' power rating any time soon. Louisiana has covered the number in each of its first three games this season. Last week's 21-14 final score against UAB was probably a little flattering for the Blazers after the Ragin' Cajuns out-gained UAB by 117 yards with a 21-11 edge in first downs. UAB's only touchdown through the first 51 minutes came off a fumble return in the end zone. We have this game lined closer to -14 with minimal home field advantage for the Niners. And like we mentioned, Charlotte essentially lost a full day of prep and recovery after playing a road game late into the night last week.
Play Louisiana

"I’m not dumb. I can tell when they’re good." Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule is usually good for a couple soundbytes during the season, and he was in one of those moods on Monday. Without trying to throw too much shade on his previous teams led by now-Oregon backup QB Dylan Raiola, you can tell Rhule has a little more pep in his step when traveling through Lincoln this fall. Rhule said that he's known since January that this season was going to be different for Big Red, and so-far-so-good. That same sentiment can be felt in East Lansing after Pat Fitzgerald's new team put a legitimate scare into Notre Dame last week. The Spartans comfortably stayed within the number as a four-touchdown 'dog in South Bend, and now have an opportunity to make a statement in front of the green-and-white faithful. The home team has won each of the last six meetings in this Big Ten battle, and the 'dog has covered the spread in five of those contests with three outright upset victories. We're not ready to call for the outright upset in this one, but we are prepared to look at the total. The Spartans' first three games this season have seen an average of 43.0 points per game, and Fitzgerald simply knows how to play clean football. Michigan State is averaging 3.3 penalties per game thus far. Spartans' opponents have converted 33.3-percent on third down, and Michigan State's special teams have not allowed a single punt return through three games (all 11 punts were either downed, fair caught or went out of bounds). Fitzgerald knows how to limit mistakes, and if that means playing a slow, boring brand of football for a little while, then so be it.
Play the Under

For all intents and purposes, this is a modified MAC reunion as former Toledo head coach Jason Candle returns to visit a former foe. Toledo and Miami (Oh) played four times over the previous three seasons with the Rockets winning all three of the regular season contests, but the RedHawks won the one that mattered the most with a win in the MAC Championship Game in 2023. Miami returns home after a back-breaking loss to Cincinnati last week as the RedHawks blew a 28-7 lead. Miami still had a double-digit lead midway through the fourth quarter before the Bearcats found the end zone twice in the final minutes. Veteran head coach Chuck Martin usually has a good pulse on his team's motivation so we're not too worried about a let-down spot from a mental aspect, but the RedHawks' defense has gotten beat up through three games. Cincinnati's offense ran 20 more plays (76-56) against the RedHawks' defense, and Pitt nearly did the same in Week 1 (75-58). UConn is coming off a comfortable four-touchdown win at Southern Miss, which was never in doubt after the Eagles lost starting QB Ethan Hampton to injury. The Huskies' offense controlled the ball for over 34 minutes. We don't LOVE the fact that UConn is on the second leg of back-to-back road games, but given how much attrition the RedHawks have faced thus far, we can only look in the Huskies' direction. For context, Toledo closed as a 5.5-point road favorite at Miami in mid-November last season and the Rockets won 24-3. Now, at a new program in UConn that is willing to spend a little bit of money, Candle is a four-point 'dog in Oxford. We're struggling to get on board with that one, even if our power ratings say it's directionally correct.
Play UConn

You just heard us mention "letdown spot" in the last game involving Miami (Oh), but there's no greater letdown spot on this week's slate than the Wolfpack from Raleigh. As a 3.5-point road 'dog at Vanderbilt, NC State was covering the spread for 59 minutes and 59 seconds before veteran quarterback CJ Bailey committed one of the worst mistakes in recent memory. Bailey's fumble in the end zone while trying to take an intentional safety was bad enough, but the officials adding one second to the clock (forcing Vanderbilt to kick the extra point to win by four, not three) was the sour cherry on top. Bailey and head coach Dave Doeren will be answering questions about that play all week, and the last thing you want to see on your schedule when you're licking your wounds is a motivated in-state little brother playing with a lot of confidence. App State already upset one Tar Heel State foe (East Carolina as a 6.5-point 'dog in Week 2), and we wouldn't be shocked if this game went down to the wire. The Mountaineers are coming off a somewhat-sloppy effort against Charlotte, but that game was delayed by 3.5 hours and App State was never in significant danger. The Mountaineers will likely struggle to run against NC State's impressive d-line, but veteran QB Malachi Singleton has played plenty of football and won't be intimidated by the bright lights of an ACC stage. If this game is closer-than-expected in the second half, Carter-Finley Stadium might turn into a hostile atmosphere for the home team. Our power ratings suggest NC State should be a larger favorite in this matchup, but the Wolfpack have a long way to go before they win our trust.
Play App State

We were on the over in Wake Forest's game against Miami (Fla) last week. NC State's gaffe against Vanderbilt will certainly take the top spot on Scott Van Pelt's "Bad Beats" segment, but the Deacs' game against the 'Canes deserves honorable mention. Four of the first five possessions resulted in touchdowns and we were sitting at 51 points at the beginning of the fourth quarter with a total of 55 in-pocket. Neither team scored over the game's final nine possessions. Miami missed a field goal and Wake Forest turned the ball over at the Canes' 14 and 4-yard-lines in the fourth quarter. That one hurt a little bit, but we're prepared to go back to the well. Even with that annoying result against Miami, we still like what we've seen from Wake Forest's offense in all three games this season - all against FBS-level competition including two Power 4 teams. The Deacs are generating 6.59 yards per play and Gio Lopez continues to look comfortable in his new ACC surroundings. On the other side, the Cardinals are coming off a big win over SMU to put Louisville in the "team most-likely to face Miami in the ACC Championship Game" driver's seat. Running back Keyjuan Brown had ten carries for 163 yards and two touchdowns. Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz continues to impress, throwing for two touchdowns against the Mustangs and adding another one with his legs. These teams haven't met since 2022 so there's not much to learn from past results, but each of the last six meetings have gone over the total and those games have seen an average of 82.0 points per game. Defense has traditionally been optional when the Cards and Demon Deacons get together in ACC play.
Play the Over

So, Eddie George, how are you enjoying FBS-level football? After showing some signs of optimism in his first season at Bowling Green, the Falcons now look like a bottom-5 program in the country. Bowling Green is 0-3 straight-up and against the spread, including a loss to FCS-level Tarleton State. The Falcons return home after getting beat 56-7 at Nebraska and 55-7 at Iowa State over the last two weeks. South Florida is playing with some confidence after a 3-0 start. That 19-9 win over Florida International looked a little shaky at the time, but the Panthers smashed Buffalo and coulda-shoulda-woulda beat Florida Atlantic last week, out-gaining the Owls by 99 yards with a 21-17 edge in first downs. So that Week 1 win, even though it wasn't pretty, has aged fairly well for the Bulls under first-year head coach Brian Hartline. Don't forget, Hartline was born in Canton, went to GlenOak High School, played at Ohio State, and prior to leaving for Tampa, Ohio State was the only place where Hartline coached before this year. So this trip back to Ohio will certainly mean something for the Bulls' leader. When South Florida's schedule was released, we're guessing not too many of the players were excited about a late-September trip from South Florida to suburban Ohio, but we have a feeling Hartline will change that. Even though the Falcons are the home team, we imagine the Buckeye State hero will have plenty of support.
Play South Florida

This will be the first meeting between the Volunteers and Longhorns since the 1968 Cotton Bowl, which Texas won 36-13. Arch Manning's critics have been saying it for years, and it's getting harder and harder to prove them wrong. After every data point that we get, Manning simply looks like a J.A.G. No, not a Jacksonville Jaguar in next year's draft. J.A.G. - Just a guy. Are we ever going to see the highlights of a player that has been projected to be a top NFL draft choice since he was a junior in high school? Manning went 16-of-32 (50.0-percent) for 161 passing yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in last week's ho-hum win over UTSA. Over his last two seasons in Austin, Manning is completing 61.4-percent of his passes. His yards-per-attempt have dropped from 7.8 last year to 6.9 this year. After scoring ten touchdowns on the ground last year, Manning doesn't have any so far in 2026. His yards-per-carry have dropped from 4.3 last year to 4.0 this year. His passer rating of 139.3 sits behind heavily-criticized quarterbacks like Michigan's Bryce Underwood and Florida State's Ashton Daniels. Perhaps we're being a little harsh on Manning, but he's largely looked like an average Power Four quarterback over the first three weeks of the season. It appears that new Vols' defensive coordinator Jim Knowles learned some lessons during a failed trip to Happy Valley, because Tennessee's defense appears to be learning his scheme a little faster than the Nittany Lions did last year. Tennessee's defense has allowed a total of three touchdowns in the first three games. Freshman QB Faizon Brandon has looked solid thus far, but this will be his first major test and you have to assume that there will be a "let's get some comfortable, easy throws" phase in the first quarter of this game. We can only look toward the under in this contest, and we'll borrow some of the same numbers that we used in Week 2 when the Longhorns played Ohio State. Over the last two seasons, Texas has played the Buckeyes twice, plus marquee games against Oklahoma, Georgia and Texas A&M. All five of those games stayed under their respective totals and those five contests saw an average of 37.2 points per game.
Play the Under