Analysis

Sean Payton has been careful not to take too much credit for the Broncos’ unsightly 23-17 win over the Chargers at SoFi last Sunday that marked his return to play-calling duties for Denver. On attack, the Broncos looked much like they did the first month of the season when OC Davis Webb was calling the plays. If anything, they might have performed even worse on Sunday, including 1-for-12 on third downs, with Bo Nix flushed from the pocket countless times and flinging the ball out of bounds to avoid a sack becoming the most familiar play of the afternoon in Inglewood. Unlike Webb, however, Payton has been doing this for a long time, and at least there’s a track record of getting it right. And despite the torturous watch Denver has become, it somehow sits at 3-2 after a rugged first month of the schedule. Even with mounting injuries, credit the defense and its impressive depth, which set up four of the five Bronco scores (including three Wil Lutz field goals) last Sunday with turnovers and/or defensive stops. Meanwhile, for all of the misfiring Nix has done in five weeks, he remains adept at hanging in there and eventually finding something to work in the fourth quarter, which is why Denver has now won an astounding 13 straight regular-season games decided by one score. It’s also not lost on many that this easily could have been the Super Bowl matchup last season had Nix not gotten injured and a blizzard not blown through the Mile High City on AFC title game day, but neither team has replicated that sort of form, at least not yet. Certainly not the Seahawks, who to this point not looking like the team they were down the stretch and into the playoffs last season. Never mind just looking like the same team, they’re most definitely not, with Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III now running roughshod for Kansas City instead, and Mike Macdonald desperate for answers in his backfield until Zach Charbonnet and Notre Dame rookie Jadarian Price return to active duty. It also hasn’t been the smoothest of starts for QB Sam Darnold, who missed almost two full games with a glute strain at the outset and seems haunted by his old ghosts since returning, tossing five picks in three weeks, and looking panicked when he can’t get the ball to big-play Jaxon Smith-Njigba. (Was it the clean playoff run last winter by Darnold that was the outlier?) Further confirming it’s not 2025 when covering 15 of their last 18 games, Seattle’s only spread W in five tries this term has come vs. the wobbling Cardinals. True, we likely wouldn’t have taken the Broncos had this been the Super Bowl matchup last February (when. by the way, it would have been Jarrett Stidham at QB for Denver), but in mid-October we’re far less reluctant to give the Broncos a look at home, where they remain tough to beat (2-0 SU this season vs. playoff-caliber Jags and Rams, 14-1 SU the last 15 reg-season games since early 2024).
Play Denver Broncos

The NFL's London invasion shifts from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium over to Wembley, which has served as the Jaguars' unofficial home-away-from-home since 2013. This will be the 28th game played at the historic venue, and the Jags have been involved in several of those. Most recently, Jacksonville suffered a 35-7 loss to the Rams last year. The Jags only played one international game last season, but they have some familiarity with this two-week trek that they are currently on. In 2023, Jacksonville swept its two-week Euro trip with wins over Buffalo and Tennessee. In 2024, the Jags rebounded from a loss at Tottenham against the Bears with a win over the Patriots at Wembley a week later. Vibes should be high after last week's near-miraculous win over Philadelphia. Jacksonville only trailed in that game for a total of 11 seconds, but Cam Little needed a 57-yard field goal as time expired to help the Jags get past the beat-up Eagles. The Jags out-gained Philadelphia by 176 yards and held a +2.1 yards per play advantage. While one member of this AFC South matchup has plenty of experience hearing God Save the King, the other one doesn't. This will be Houston's first international game since 2019, when the Texans beat the Jaguars at Wembley. Houston's playbook should be relatively full because the Texans didn't have to dig very deep to get past Tennessee last week. Houston's defense held the Titans to 187 total yards on 3.2 yards per play while generating two turnovers and four sacks. That 26-3 win broke a five-game losing skid (both straight-up and against the spread) for the Texans. This has been a tightly-contested series in recent years as the last five meetings have all been decided by one score. Four of those five contests stayed under the total. Houston and Jacksonville split their two games last season with the home team protecting its turf in each matchup. While this has been a low-scoring affair in recent years, we're inclined to take a shot with the over. Very similar to the Raiders' offense at the moment, any designed run from the Texans is essentially a wasted play. With David Montgomery battling a groin injury, Woody Marks and Dare Ogunbowale are the only two healthy running backs on the Texans' roster and Ogunbowale was signed off the practice squad two weeks ago. Houston is No. 31 in rushing success rate this season, one-tenth of a percentage point above Cleveland for the worst mark in the league. With Nico Collins back in the mix, Houston's passing game is significantly better than the rushing attack right now. Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts attempted 40 passes against Jacksonville last week, and Houston should follow a similar script in this one (with much better receiving weapons than the Eagles had).
Play the Over

After New York's brief run of success in 2024, the Patriots have re-established their dominance in this AFC East matchup. New England is 26-4 straight-up over the last 30 meetings with the Jets, including a pair of wins-and-covers as a double-digit favorite last year. Six of the last eight meetings have stayed under the total as the Jets have scored an average of 16.3 points per game during that run. Both teams are coming off wins last week as New England handled the Raiders, while New York got past the Browns. The Jets needed a number of bounces to go their way last week against Cleveland, and fortunately for Gang Green, they got 'em. The Browns missed an extra point in the fourth quarter that prevented them from going up by three points, then punter Corey Bojorquez dropped the snap to allow Trevin Wallace to recover the fumble and New York would score the game-winning touchdown three plays later. The sky is no longer falling in Foxboro after the Patriots earned back-to-back wins over the Bills and Raiders. New England scored a pair of touchdowns on its first two possessions and the Patriots were able to put the game on cruise control after that. Drake Maye went 26-of-34 through the air for 374 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The Patriots have earned back-to-back wins, but things aren't looking much better in the injury department. Cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis have each missed multiple games. Running back TreVeyon Henderson, tackle Will Campbell and edge rusher Dre'Mont Jones were all knocked out of last week's game against the Raiders. Head coach Mike Vrabel said he expects Campbell, the team's former No. 4 overall draft pick, to miss multiple weeks. The under is 4-1 in New York's games this season, and we'll gladly look to ride that train for another week. On New England's side, almost all of the potential injury news would be beneficial toward a low-scoring game (potential return of Gonzalez and Davis on defense with the potential absence of Henderson and Campbell on offense). The Jets are scoring an average of 18.6 points per game against a schedule of defenses that includes the Titans, Lions and Bears. If you're not scoring points against them, hitting the 20-point mark against the Patriots on the road feels like a tall task.
Play the Under

Pittsburgh is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five meetings with Tampa Bay, but these cross-conference foes have not met since the Steelers' 20-18 home win in October 2022 when Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky were running the offense. Tampa had some extra time to prep for this one after winning in Dallas last Thursday as a 9.5-point 'dog. Jalon Daniels was very impressive in his first career start, going 19-of-25 with only one sack and no turnovers. Bucky Irving added 165 yards on the ground with a pair of touchdowns. The vibes are also high in Pittsburgh this week after the Steelers earned a nice home win over the Colts. Pittsburgh's last three games have seen an average of 54.7 points per game, with all three of those contests flying over their respective totals. Jaylen Warren took another step forward in the Steelers' offense, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries to go along with 87 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. After throwing two interceptions the previous week against the Browns, Aaron Rodgers played a clean game against the Colts' defense but he’s beginning to run out of weapons. Running back Rico Dowdle and wide receiver Michael Pittman have both missed extended time, and fellow receiver Roman Wilson is now expected to miss multiple weeks with a bad finger. You're now looking at a Steelers' receiving corps that features DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard and a slew of tight ends and running backs with a 42-year-old quarterback. That's not the type of team we're looking to lay points with on the road at the moment. And while the black-and-gold will undoubtedly travel well to Tampa and make an impact in the noise department, playing in South Florida is still difficult. The Bengals and Dolphins played one of the hottest October games in NFL history last week. That might be something to monitor for a Steelers team that hasn't left the Northeast this season (heck, they didn't even leave the Northeast in the preseason either). Tampa had extra time to rest and prep for this one. And with the current state of the NFC South, the Bucs can be right back in the division hunt with a win on Sunday.
Play Tampa Bay Bucs

Baltimore has won each of the last three meetings by an average of 18.7 points per game. Each of the last five meetings between the Ravens and Browns have gone over the total as Baltimore has scored an average of 30.8 points per game by itself in those contests. Cleveland let one slip away last week against the Jets. Wind and rain were certainly a factor at The Meadowlands, but Browns' head coach Todd Monken was quick to point out that both teams had to play on the same field and he didn't want to make excuses. After a handful of strong outings, Deshaun Watson's confidence regressed as he was sacked eight times and the Browns' offense only generated 3.0 yards per play. Cleveland suffered a number of key injuries in that contest. With guard Teven Jenkins and defensive tackle Mason Graham already out, the Browns lost running back Quinshon Judkins, wide receiver KC Concepcion and linebacker Carson Schwesinger to various injuries against New York. The Ravens had a late night in Atlanta, but the result was worth it as Baltimore earned a 30-23 road win in overtime on Sunday Night Football. Tyler "Snoop" Huntley showed that he can run the offense in the absence of Lamar Jackson. Huntley finished 24-of-32 with three touchdowns and no turnovers against the Falcons. Most eyes will be on Jackson's status through out the week, but the Ravens are getting healthier at a number of key positions. Zay Flowers is back after missing the Week 2 loss to the Saints. Rookie receiver Ja’Kobi Lane has been out since Week 1, but he's slated to return this week from a wrist injury. Edge rusher Trey Hendrickson is scheduled to return this week after missing the last two games following finger surgery. The overall health of these two teams is heading in opposite directions, and we're comfortable with upgrading Baltimore a little more aggressively than the rest of the betting market, with or without Jackson this week. The Browns' offense has shown some impressive flashes at times, but this is still a unit that ranks 31st in EPA per rush attempt and last in rushing success rate. If you put this whole offense on Watson's shoulders, well, we've already seen how that story plays out.
Play Baltimore Ravens

Each of the last three meetings between the Bears and Falcons have gone over the total, but this is the first contest between these NFC foes since Chicago's 37-17 home win on New Years Eve 2023. Both teams are licking their wounds after suffering tough defeats last week. The Bears were embarrassed at Lambeau, falling 31-7 to the Packers as Chicago's defense allowed Jordan Love to throw for 367 yards with just six incomplete passes. Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum split snaps at quarterback, but neither could get the Bears' offense going as they combined for three interceptions. After missing each of the last three games with a hamstring injury, starting QB Caleb Williams is tentatively scheduled to return this week. The Bears' last four games have all stayed under the total. Things didn't go much better in Atlanta last week after the Falcons lost in overtime to the Ravens. Starting QB Michael Penix Jr. suffered a rib injury in the final minutes of that game, forcing Tua Tagovailoa to come in off the bench for his first snaps in a Falcons' uniform. The result was a game-ending interception a few plays later. In terms of fan experience and affordable concessions, few NFL venues compare to Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Unfortunately for the Dirty Birds, those good vibes haven't extended onto the field (or betting window). Since the start of the 2024-25 season, Atlanta has gone 6-13 against the spread in home games. There are major question marks on both sides as we go to print on Tuesday. If we begin to see some positive signs for Penix Jr. we're going to have some interest in the Falcons. Atlanta just closed as a 3.5-point home favorite over Baltimore, and now the Falcons are a three-point home 'dog to the Bears? We're struggling to get on board with that. Chicago's defense has performed better than originally projected, but that is still a bottom-10 unit in the league. The Bears' defense is 27th in EPA per rush attempt allowed this season. We've already seen multiple examples of Bijan Robinson carrying the Falcons to victory: 194 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers followed by 145 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints. As long as he's healthy (and as long as Cooper Rush isn't playing), we're inclined to side with the Dirty Birds.

Indianapolis has won-and-covered each of the last six meetings in this AFC South matchup. The Colts earned a 21-point win in Nashville followed by a 24-point win in Indianapolis. Four of the last five meetings have gone over the total. The Colts return home after a chaotic start to the season. With the benefit of some hindsight and context, the NFL schedule makers certainly didn't do Indianapolis many favors at the start of the year. The Colts were at a significant rest and travel disadvantage last week, traveling to Pittsburgh after playing in London the week before while the Steelers had extra time to prep after playing the previous Thursday. That came after playing the Ravens, Chiefs and Texans to open the season. Tennessee would love to find a built-in excuse or two, but unfortunately for the Music City faithful, this version of the Titans looks very similar to prior ones. Tennessee is 0-5 straight-up, 2-3 against the spread following last week's 26-3 loss to Houston. The under is 4-1 in Titans' games, and the lone "over" against the Eagles required a touchdown in the final ten seconds to clear the total. From a power ratings' perspective, we are in line with where this game has opened. We have very little interest in backing either side at this price, but perhaps this is the buy-low spot on the Titans' offense (can it get any lower?!). When these teams met in Indianapolis last October, the closing total was 47.5 points. With almost all of the same pieces on both sides of that game - Same QBs, same RBs and most of the same receivers - we're now looking at an opening total of 44 at most 'books. The Colts and Titans had that number cleared before the fourth quarter began in both meetings last season. With comfortable conditions in a dome, this number may have dropped a tick too far. The Colts' defense is bottom-3 in the NFL in both EPA per rush attempt allowed and rushing success rate allowed. If there's a defense out there that can help the Titans' offense get back on track, this is it.
Play the Over

Philadelphia has won each of the last two meetings, with the last one being a 22-16 home win in December 2024. Four of the last five meetings between the Panthers and Eagles have stayed under the total. Philadelphia covered the number as a 7.5-point 'dog against the Jaguars last week, breaking a six-game losing streak at the betting window. If the Eagles close as a favorite in this matchup, you have to go back to December 14 of last year to find the last time Philadelphia covered the number as a home favorite. Since the midway point of last season, the under is 7-1 in the Panthers' last eight road games. A Week 5 bye probably isn't ideal for most teams over the course of an 18-week season, but Carolina probably isn't complaining at the moment. Wide receiver Jalen Coker, guard Damien Lewis, tackle Monroe Freeling, tackle Taylor Moton, defensive lineman Turk Wharton and edge rusher Jaelan Phillips were all missing from the Panthers' lineup prior to the week off. Early indications suggest all of them could be back in time for this contest against Philadelphia. Eagles fans certainly don't want to hear it, but last week's results around the rest of the NFC East (no team won) may have changed the way Philadelphia approaches this game. The Eagles' top three running backs - Saquon Barkley, Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley - are all likely going to be out. Wide receivers DeVonta Smith and Hollywood Brown both missed last week's loss to the Jaguars. After this game against the Panthers, the Eagles play three-straight games against the other three teams in the division. With all three of those teams failing to pick up a win last week, the NFC East will still be within reach no matter what happens this week. Why rush some of those players back this week when your season will essentially be on the line over the following three weeks? Again, Lincoln Financial Field will certainly not be thrilled with that thought process, but there's very little incentive for the Eagles to rush some of those players back from injury. Nick Sirianni's seat is warming up in a hurry and we're not seeing any signs of this ship turning around with him at the helm.
Play Carolina Panthers

This is the fourth-straight year these cross-division foes have met, with New Orleans winning each of the first three. Those three contests saw an average of 31.7 points per game with all three staying under their respective totals. Neither starting QB remains from last year's 26-14 contest in New Orleans as Giants' starter Jaxson Dart is currently injured, while the Saints have since made the switch from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough. NFL fans and pundits have plenty to say about Jameis Winston, but the Giants are 3-0 against the spread since he's been inserted into the starting lineup. New York is 6-1 against the number dating back to the final weeks of last season. New Orleans was on a similar run at the betting window, but injuries and attrition have begun to mount. The Saints have dropped their last three, including a 23-13 home loss to the Vikings last week. Shough had a couple fingers taped together and was handing the ball off with his opposite hand on running plays against Minnesota. Shough was listed as a full participant in Saints practice last week, so that hand injury appeared to be a bigger deal than we were originally led to believe. Keep an eye on his status through out the week, but if he is good-to-go, we're inclined to view this as a buy-low spot for New Orleans. The Giants just played a full overtime period on the road last week with Winston attempting 54 passes in the driving rain. New York's best unit is the pass rush, but how much juice is that group going to have after chasing Jayden Daniels around for five quarters last week? New Orleans just played three-straight home games, so in terms of overall fatigue and attrition, this is a good spot for things to even-out for the Saints.
Play New Orleans

Over the last three seasons, the Rams are 5-1 straight-up, 4-2 against the spread in this NFC West matchup. LA won last year's contests by 28 and 17 points. Four of the last five meetings have gone over the total. After that Week 1 win over the Chargers, the Cardinals have lost their last four games by an average of 16.5 points per game. During this losing streak, the Cardinals have allowed an average of 37.0 points per game. Arizona's defense had no match for the Lions last week, and the Cardinals' season is playing out similar to last year's. At full strength, Arizona can be feisty with anyone. But the Cardinals' roster is so thin that as soon as injuries and attrition begin to mount, everything goes off the rails. The Rams will likely be in a feisty mood for this one after falling at home to the Bills in overtime on Monday night. Los Angeles was +2 in turnover differential and generated 454 total yards with 33 first downs, but two missed field goals ultimately became the difference. Sean McVay will have plenty to preach in practice this week after the Rams' defense allowed 7.6 yards per play to the Bills' offense, and his team committed 11 penalties. The Cardinals' last three games have gone over the total. The Rams' last three games have gone over the total. Any reason to believe this one can't climb into the mid-50s? The Cardinals' defense is 31st in EPA per drop-back allowed and 25th in passing success rate allowed. Mike LaFleur is trying to build a winning culture in Arizona, and he kept his starters in and was pushing to score while down 45-14 in the final minutes against the Lions last week. Ultimately, the Rams' offense should be able to get whatever they want, and any points scored by the Cardinals would be a cherry on top.
Play the Over