Analysis

Delaware earned a 31-28 home win over the Blue Raiders last season, but Middle Tennessee stayed within the number as an 8.5-point road 'dog. MTSU actually out-gained the Blue Hens in that contest, but couldn't overcome a pair of turnovers. All eyes will be on Delaware QB Nick Minicucci, who threw for 276 yards and four touchdowns in last year's contest with Middle Tennessee. Minicucci did not play in the October 2 home loss to Liberty and the Blue Hens' coaching staff has given no update on his recovery. Delaware used a trio of quarterbacks - Tyler Bell, Braden Streeter and EJ Archield Jr. - against the Flames, with no one finding much success. The under is 4-1 in Delaware's games this season. Middle Tennessee returns home after a pair of road losses at Jacksonville State and Kansas. Just like the Hens, the under is 4-1 in Middle Tennessee's games this season. If Minicucci is out, we're struggling to see how either team moves the ball in this contest. Delaware is averaging 8.44 yards to go on third down this season, which is 132nd in the country. If you are constantly getting put in long distances like that, it's a tough hole to climb out of. Both teams had a couple extra days to prep for this one, so both defenses should have a pretty good idea of what to expect on the other side. Middle Tennessee has scored every time the Blue Raiders have entered the opponents' red zone this season. After sitting 113rd in the country in red zone scoring percentage last year, the Raiders are due for a hiccup or two. Also, wind may play a small factor in this one with a steady breeze of 10-15mph expected in Murfreesboro through out most of the contest. Keep an eye on Minicucci's status, but we'd be surprised if this Tuesday affair turned into a high-scoring shootout.
Play the Under

The Panthers and Gamecocks have traded a pair of narrow home wins over the past two seasons. Jacksonville State earned a 34-31 victory in 2024 and Florida International returned the favor with a 27-21 victory in Miami last year. The Gamecocks out-gained the Panthers by 51 yards in last season's contest, but FIU was able to overcome three turnovers by out-scoring Jacksonville State 13-0 over the final 22 minutes. Both teams are on equal rest after playing last Wednesday. Florida International hits the road after a pair of home wins over Long Island and New Mexico State. Four of the Panthers' five games this season have stayed under the total. Jacksonville State is riding a three-game winning streak after picking up a road win at Kennesaw State last week. The Gamecocks have landed on the opposite end of the totals spectrum this season with four of their five games going over the total. We tip our cap to Jacksonville State for the gritty road win at Kennesaw last week, but we have some concerns about the Gamecocks' offense moving forward. Jacksonville State was forced to kick a pair of field goals from deep inside Kennesaw territory last week as the Gamecocks couldn't generate much of a rushing attack, especially in the red zone. QB Caden Creel remains a big part of the Gamecocks' rushing attack, but he doesn't have much help around him. Over the last three weeks against Kennesaw, Middle Tennessee and Georgia Southern, running back Jalen Likely has produced a total of 80 rushing yards on 3.3 yards per carry. Florida International's defense is top-15 in the country thus far in EPA per rush attempt allowed and rushing success rate allowed. The Panthers' defense has done a fantastic job forcing opposing offenses into 3rd-and-long situations. Creel is being asked to carry a heavy load in the Jacksonville State offense at the moment, and he's not getting consistent help.
Play Florida International

Kennesaw earned a 41-34 home win over the Bears last season as a 6.5-point favorite. These teams combined for 1,035 yards in a game that cleared the closing total by three touchdowns. Now-Syracuse QB Amari Odom threw for 387 yards and five touchdowns in that game, but it's been a while since Kennesaw State has seen an offensive explosion like that. The Owls have dropped each of their last four games, but they are still 4-1 against the spread this season after a pair of narrow losses to Arkansas State and Jacksonville State. Dating back to the end of last season, six of the Owls' last seven games have stayed under the total. Missouri State is coming off a 34-13 loss at Western Kentucky. That final score was probably a little flattering for the Hilltoppers as the Bears were only trailing by one score at the end of the third quarter before WKU scored the game's final 13 points. Missouri State used both Henry Belin IV and Skyler Locklear at quarterback last week, and that formula simply didn't work. It sounds like Duke transfer Belin IV is likely going to see more playing time this week and moving forward, and that can only be viewed as a positive for the Bears. With all due respect to Locklear, if you're a fifth-year senior who can't get things going at UTEP and Missouri State, then it might be time to pursue a different path. We have this game lined closer to a pick'em and will grab the three-point head start with the Bears.
Play Missouri State

Western Kentucky has won each of the three meetings since Sam Houston joined the Hilltoppers in Conference-USA. Western Kentucky earned a 41-24 home win last season as a double-digit favorite. Both teams are on equal rest after playing last Thursday. The Hilltoppers earned their first win over an FBS-level opponent last week, beating Missouri State at home. As we mentioned in our Missouri State-Kennesaw State preview, that 34-13 final score was probably a little flattering for WKU as that was a one-score game in the final minutes of the third quarter. Sam Houston is licking its wounds a bit after suffering a 35-3 loss at Liberty. The Bearkats should enjoy a nice bump in home field advantage for this contest. Remember, Sam Houston didn't play home games on campus last season because of stadium renovations. In their debut game at the new Elliott T. Bowers Stadium last month, the 'Kats nearly upset Tulsa as a double-digit home 'dog. Now, they get a stand-alone game on ESPN with an opportunity to beat a perennial power in Conference-USA. While we do have some interest in Sam Houston as a short home 'dog, we're a little more interested in the total. When these teams met last season, the closing total was 59.5 points. One year later, we're looking at a total that is a full touchdown below that. You probably wouldn't know it after scoring only three points against the Flames last week, but the Bearkats' offense has taken a notable step forward with Landyn Locke at the helm. And truthfully, oddsmakers and bettors are still trying to figure out what to do with Western Kentucky since the Hilltoppers essentially punted their non-conference schedule. Locke and the Sam Houston offense are better than what the Hilltoppers have faced over the last two weeks, yet we're looking at an opening total that is considerably lower than what Western Kentucky is accustomed to.
Play the Over

Old Dominion has won-and-covered each of the last three meetings, including a 45-10 road win at Georgia Southern last season. The Monarchs out-gained the Eagles by 302 yards in that contest, and ODU has cleared the 550-yard mark in each of the last two meetings. We'll give ourselves a small pat on the back because there weren't many people riding the Old Dominion train last week against App State. The Monarchs earned the outright upset as an 8.5-point road 'dog, but the truth of the matter is we probably didn't learn much about either team. After all the talk about the tropical storm's impact in Alabama, Tennessee and Florida, the worst college football weather last week ended up being in Boone, North Carolina. Nonetheless, you still have to tip your caps to the Monarchs, who out-gained the favored Mountaineers by 146 yards with a +7 advantage in first downs. ODU held the ball for nearly 39 minutes as App State struggled to produce first downs. Another week, and another case of us showing value on the Monarchs. Georgia Southern played very well in a three-point home loss to James Madison last week and the Eagles have now covered the spread in seven of their last eight games. We fully admit that ODU has been a tough team to trust this season, but this is a tough spot for Georgia Southern. The Eagles have a bye after this game, so it's natural for eyes to start wandering toward the off week ahead. Georgia Southern just played five-straight weeks of competitive, emotional games and that catches up to you after a while. Georgia Southern closed as a 2.5-point road favorite at Coastal Carolina two weeks ago, and now the Eagles are laying a bigger number at Old Dominion. Perhaps we continue to be a little too high on the Monarchs, but we're struggling to see why ODU would be catching a bigger number than the Chanticleers. Don't ask just us, either. Both Jeff Sagarin's College Football Ratings and Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings both have ODU as a better team than Coastal. The Monarchs' recent dominance in this series doesn't hurt, either.
Play Old Dominion

This will be the first meeting between the Blazers and Pirates since November 2013. After dropping back-to-back games to open the season, East Carolina has picked up three-straight wins. Despite trailing in the third quarter last week against Rice, East Carolina remained largely in control of that contest against the Owls. The Pirates out-gained Rice by 143 yards and held a +1.4 yards per play advantage. Dating back to the end of last season, six of East Carolina's last seven games have stayed under the total. UAB is coming off a 25-point loss at Memphis, which would be a surprising thing to read for anyone that only saw the first half. UAB held a 13-10 lead going into the break but was out-scored 28-0 in the second half, largely thanks to a -3 turnover differential. Much like the Pirates, the Blazers are on a similar run of "under" results with seven of their last eight games staying under the total. There was some confidence surrounding returning QB Ryder Burton entering the year, but he's simply not completing enough passes for the Blazers right now. Burton's completion rate has dropped from 63.3-percent last year to 55.4-percent this year. And that's with a schedule that included UL-Monroe, FCS-level Samford and an always-questionable pass defense in Navy. East Carolina has lost a lot on offense from years past, but the Pirates' defense has come to play so far this season. Our power ratings are in line with where this game has opened, but we simply haven't seen enough from UAB's passing attack in recent weeks to believe that the Blazers can keep this one close.
Play East Carolina

Before being reduced to looking for volunteers at various microbreweries and regional rodeos across the Front Range, first-year Colorado State HC Jim Mora has been only able to attract a few oil-rig firefighters, paratroopers, commodity traders and assorted other daredevils to apply for the high-stress job of being the Rams’ defensive coordinator. All after Mora demoted Tyson Summers during the first half of the recent embarrassment vs. Oregon State, then hitting the eject button completely on Summers before the team got back to the dressing room at the end of that latest humiliation vs. the Beavers. Is there a silver lining to the mess at Fort Collins, other than if a team looked like it could use a bye last weekend, it was the Rams, who had been allowing an average of over half-a-hundred their previous three games (all losses, of course)? Good question there, as Mora now has to deal with a capable yet likely very angry Texas State that when last seen was committing a gridiron version of hari-kari in a recent loss at San Diego State. The bad news for Mora and whatever brave soul is calling plays for his defense is that the Bobcats have plenty of offense and have scored better than 44 ppg in three home games this term at San Marcos, with vet, dual-threat QB Brad Jackson already having tossed 13 TD passes (12 of those in the past three games)! before this campaign has hit the half-mile pole. GJ Kinne’s offense can balance things quite nicely, too, considering the 4 rush TDs that explosive Davian Jackson scored a few weeks ago vs. North Texas, the same game in which backfield mate Torrance Burgess, Jr ran roughshod against one of the top contenders in the American to the tune of 214 rush yards. We’d rather wait until later in the schedule when the Rams run into some lesser (and there are a few of those) Pac-12 offenses before risking a recommendation on Mora’s defense-shy troops.
Play Texas State

The road team has won-and-covered each of the last three meetings in this American Conference matchup. The Tigers earned a 34-24 upset win as a 13.5-point 'dog in New Orleans in 2024, and the Green Wave returned the favor with a 38-32 upset win in Memphis last year. Four of the last five meetings have gone over the total. Memphis brings a three-game winning streak into this contest after handling Charlotte and UAB as a double-digit favorite each of the last two weeks. The Tigers trailed the Blazers at halftime last week before closing the game on a 28-0 run. The final score stayed under the closing total, breaking a string of four-straight "over" results in Memphis' games to kick off the season. Tulane returns home after falling at Army last week. It's a small sample size, but the Green Wave have developed quite the home-road split dating back to the end of last season. Since that game against Memphis last season, Tulane has gone 5-0 straight-up at home and 1-4 straight-up on the road. The Green Wave have traditionally been solid in the trenches, but this doesn't look like a good matchup for Tulane after playing Army the week before. The Knights generated 5.4 yards per play against Tulane last week and the Green Wave defense was on the field for over 35 minutes. Now, you have to face one of the best defensive lines in the country that is causing havoc against opposing offensive lines. Memphis' win over UNLV continues to age well, especially after the Rebels beat North Dakota State last week. Memphis sacked UNLV QB Jackson Arnold six times in that contest. We were a little unsure about how that result would age, but that now appears to be a very strong result in the Tigers' favor.
Play Memphis

What has happened to the Huskies? What has happened to HC Jedd Fisch? Has Washington secretly replaced Fisch with (ex-) Mariners manager Dan Wilson? Whatever the reason, the Huskies have been dropping faster than that outdoor elevator on the Space Needle, now on three straight losses for the first time since Jimmy Lake seemed to be in the process of destroying the program in 2021. That Top 25 ranking in the preseason polls during the summer now seems a long time ago, and most of the concerns our regional sources had about the Huskies in the opening weeks of the season have come home to roost. More specifically involving the reported disconnect between QB Demond Williams and his teammates tracing to not only his dalliance with LSU in the portal (and eventual boomerang back to Seattle) but also Fisch’s unconditional embrace last winter. So, after Williams hardly looked worth his reported $4 million price tag and was KO’d with a rib injury last week vs. Iowa, now there is a QB controversy brewing in Montlake after ex-Stanford Elihjah Brown (very glad, we guess, to be away from the Farm this season) got the offense moving, even if belatedly so in the second half vs. the Hawkeyes in an otherwise dominant 41-24 romp for Kirk Fernetz and his troops. With Williams expected to miss this week, any quick endorsement of Brown based upon last week should note that Iowa was playing very loose defensively with a huge lead last week, and besides the Huskies aren’t running the ball worth a lick, now swimming with the fishes at the bottom of the national rushing table at a puny 90 ypg (ranks 135th), keeping company with the likes of Northern Illinois and Delaware. Many also suspect that about now (Fisch might also be regretting taking back ball play-calling duties this season. All music to the ears this week, we would think, for Purdue and HC Barry Odom, whose Boilermakers are on their first Big Ten win streak since the last year of Jeff Brohm’s regime in 2022 after last week’s pasting of Minnesota. All suggesting that Odom now has the Riveters emulating famous alum Neil Armstrong and shooting for the moon, or maybe just a bowl bid for the first time in four years. Meanwhile, after noting that Hawkeyes slasher Kamari Moulton sliced thru Fisch’s defense for 208 YR last week, the eyes of top Riveter rusher and Minnesota transfer Fame Ijeboi (on course for a 1000-yard rushing season; 195 YR and 3 TDs vs. his former Gopher mates last week!) became as big as saucers, while QB Ryan Browne continues to be marvelously efficient (69% completions, 9 TDP and only 1 pick).
Play Purdue

Coastal Carolina has won-and-covered each of the last four meetings with outright upsets in all four contests. The Chants beat the Mountaineers as a 10.5-point road 'dog last season, scoring a pair of touchdowns with less than four minutes remaining. Last year's 45-37 thriller broke a string of four-straight "under" results between these Sun Belt foes. Coastal broke a three-game losing skid with a mild road upset at Marshall last week. The Chants jumped out to a 27-0 at the midway point of the third quarter and put things on cruise control after that. Coastal was the beneficiary of SIX Marshall turnovers in that contest. App State has suffered back-to-back losses to NC State and Old Dominion. As we mentioned in our Georgia Southern-Old Dominion preview, the worst football-related weather of the weekend ended up hitting western North Carolina as the Mountaineers were hosting the Monarchs. Obviously you never want to get out-gained by 146 yards and lose as an 8.5-point home favorite, but in the grand scheme of things, that result can largely be tossed because of the extreme conditions that game was played in. And that's not the only game App State has played like that this season. In Week 3, App State hosted Charlotte in a game that ended around 1am ET because of a lengthy delay and monsoon conditions. We'll make the case that this total is a few ticks too low. Coastal's defense allowed 34 points to Liberty and 31 points to Georgia Southern. In better conditions, we anticipate App State's offense to land in a similar neighborhood.
Play the Over

Temple has won-and-covered all three meetings since they became conference foes in The American, including a 49-14 road win at Charlotte last season. Surprisingly, the Owls won that game by 35 points with only a 384-357 advantage in total yards. Temple returned both a fumble and an interception for a touchdown in that contest. Look, there's not much you can say about the 49ers' program at the moment. Charlotte is 0-6 straight-up, 2-4 against the spread. Over the last three weeks, the Niners have lost by 27 at home against Louisiana, lost by 51 at home against Memphis and lost by 40 last week at North Texas. Charlotte is unquestionably a bottom-5 program in the country right now and the signs of progress are few-and-far-between. Now with all of that being said, there's no way we can lay this big of a number with Temple. Charlotte just closed as an 18.5-point 'dog against Memphis two weeks ago, and now the Niners are catching more points against Temple?! The Owls were a 14.5-point home favorite against FCS-level Rhode Island last month, and now they need to win by three touchdowns against a conference opponent?! These are some stiff, rapid adjustments. You have to go back to the final week of the 2019 season (vs UConn) to find the last time that Temple was anywhere near this big of a favorite against an FBS-level opponent. We have a lot of respect for what K.C. Keeler has accomplished and what he is capable of building, but there's simply no way we're laying this many points with the Owls after losing to Toledo, Army and UConn earlier this season. Four of the Owls' last five games have stayed under the total. Temple is NOT the type of team we're looking to lay three touchdowns with. Charlotte or pass, in our opinion.

This will be the first meeting between the Cardinals and Orange since Syracuse earned a 31-7 win in September 2022. Louisville had an extra day to prep for this one after handling Florida State last week. The Cards fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter and needed a goal line stand to prevent a 21-0 hole, but once they got that, Jeff Brohm figured it out. Speaking of Brohm, the Cardinals are making a unique move that you don't see too often. While other head coaches around the NFL and college football are reclaiming play-calling duties from their assistants, Brohm is actually giving his up. In an effort to have a better overall feel of his team, Jeff Brohm is handing play-calling duties over to his brother Brian. The Brohm Brothers are both excited about the prospect of getting running back Keyjuan Brown back in the mix after missing last week's win over Florida State. Brown is averaging 9.7 yards per carry so far this season, including a 163-yard performance against SMU in Week 3. Syracuse has an absolute mess at quarterback to sift through. Original starter Steve Angeli has missed each of the last two games. Back-up Amari Odom is dealing with a shoulder injury that forced him to miss last week's game against Virginia. Third-stringer Malachi Nelson suffered a collarbone injury in that game against the Cavaliers, forcing fourth-stringer Danny Lauter to finish the contest. As we go to print early in the week, it sounds like the Georgetown transfer Lauter will likely get most of the reps in practice this week with the hope that one of the top three (Angeli sounds like the top choice? Maybe?) can offer something by the time Saturday rolls around. Keep an eye on the Orange QB situation through out the week, but we can only look in Louisville's direction. Normally, this would look like a sleepy spot on the schedule with the Cardinals' bye on the horizon. But with Louisville shifting its coaching responsibilities around this week, that's probably a sign that Louisville won't be
playing with its food.

Ohio State's 30-game winning streak over the Hoosiers came to a close in last year's Big Ten Championship, which was won by Indiana as a 3.5-point 'dog in Indianapolis. Indiana's defense held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards, although Jeremiah Smith was able to break free for 144 yards and eight catches. Since that contest, Indiana is 9-0 straight-up with an average margin of victory at 27.2 points per game. That list of opponents includes Alabama, Oregon, Miami (Fla) and last week's win at Nebraska. Ohio State is just 5-2 since that win over the Hoosiers, dropping contests to Miami (Fla) and Texas with an average point differential of 23.9 points per game. This year's Indiana squad appears to be a tick behind last year's championship squad (particularly on offense), but there are holes to be poked in the Buckeyes' resume as well. Smith is unquestionably one of the best wide receiver prospects in recent memory, but if there is any coach in the country you trust to have a proper gameplan in place, Curt Cignetti is that guy. In last year's meeting, don't forget that Ohio State had a viable second option in Carnell Tate, who eventually became a top-5 draft pick for the Titans. We're halfway through the season, and Ohio State still hasn't identified who this year's Tate is. In the win over Iowa two weeks ago, Smith caught more balls (11) than the rest of the team combined (9). In last week's win over Maryland, QB Julian Sayin only threw 11 passes that weren't targeted toward Smith. He is a generational talent, but Cignetti has proven to be a generational coach. We have our own concerns about Indiana's offense, but home field advantage and a 3.5-point head start with the defending champs will help ease some of those concerns.
Play Indiana