Analysis

Dallas has won-and-covered each of the last two meetings, with the last one being a 26-24 upset win in December 2024 as a 4.5-point home 'dog. Cooper Rush was the Cowboys' quarterback in that contest. Dallas earned a much-needed road win at Houston last week as Dak Prescott found CeeDee Lamb for the game-winning touchdown with 40 seconds remaining. The Cowboys trailed by double digits at halftime, but the Prescott-to-Lamb connection was unstoppable in the second half. Lamb finished with 189 receiving yards on 17 receptions, while George Pickens finished with two catches. Dating back to last Thanksgiving, the Cowboys' last ten games have all gone over the total. Last week's contest against the Texans saw 64 points, and frankly could have seen more. Houston and Dallas only combined for six punts, and almost-automatic kicker Brandon Aubrey missed two field goals (both were over 60-yard attempts, he is human after all). Tampa Bay had various opportunities to pull off an upset last week, but couldn’t get the job done. Rookie QB Jalon Daniels threw two interceptions in his debut, but showed a dynamic element with his legs by producing 55 rushing yards on eight attempts. There were some +3's available at various points, but the consensus closing number was +2.5 for Tampa Bay last week against the Packers. Following that three-point loss at home to Green Bay, the Bucs have now failed to cover the spread in 13-straight games. This is a big number to lay, but we can only look in the Cowboys' direction. Dallas’ defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but newly-acquired cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is already making an impact and that role will only grow as he becomes more familiar with his new surroundings. While playing his first snaps of the season on a team that he was traded to four days ago, Porter's matchup was targeted one time by the Texans' offense and he did not allow a reception last week. If he can shut down either Chris Godwin or Emeka Egbuka, the Packers just laid a pretty nice blueprint for how to defend the rest of the Bucs' offense. Godwin and Egbuka only combined for 44 yards on eight catches last week. No Bucs' receiver had more than 40 yards. In terms of matchups for a struggling Cowboys' defense, this is as good as it's going to get. Over the course of the last few weeks, we've talked at-length about the Packers' struggles on the offensive line. Tampa Bay's defense was not able to generate a sack against Jordan Love last week, and Love faced the third-lowest pressure rate of his career. If the Bucs' defense couldn't pressure Love behind a wounded offensive line, then we shudder to think what Prescott and the Cowboys' offense will do in this matchup.
Play Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia has won each of the last five meetings in this cross-conference matchup, with the last one being a 28-23 home win in November 2024. The Eagles' defense held Trevor Lawrence to 16-of-31 passing for 169 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. This will be Philadelphia's first trek to Europe since beating the Jaguars at Wembley Stadium in 2018. The poster child for the NFL's international expansion, Jacksonville is 7-7 straight-up in 14 international games, including a 35-7 loss to the Rams at Wembley last season. Eagles' head coach Nick Sirianni has always had a somewhat-contentious relationship with the Philly Phaithful, but it's starting to feel like his job security is on thin ice. Philadelphia went 0-for-12 on third down against the Rams last week, which was the worst performance on third down by any offense over the last six seasons. Jalen Hurts produced 2.19 yards per drop-back against Los Angeles on Sunday. Over the last two seasons, the only starting QB to produce a lower number with a minimum of 30 drop-backs was Cam Ward in his NFL debut last year. If you took away the Eagles' name and just focused on the on-field production, you would never know that this was a top-tier team in the NFL over the last decade. DeVonta Smith, Hollywood Brown, Dallas Goedart, Zack Baun and Lane Johnson all missed last week's contest. Saquon Barkley suffered a hamstring injury and did not return. Edge rusher Jonathan Greenard and cornerback Quinyon Mitchell both left the game with injuries. Any kind of fight from the Eagles is going to have to come on the defensive end because this offense is one of the worst in football right now. Philadelphia is 0-4 against the spread this season, falling short of point spread expectations by an average of 7.8 points per game. This will be the 14th game played at London's Tottenham Hotspur Stadium since 2019, including last week’s clash between the Colts and Commanders. The venue has produced some low-scoring results in recent years as the last seven games played at Hotspur Stadium have seen an average of 40.4 points per game. The Eagles will likely need to turn this into another defensive slugfest to have any shot in this matchup.
Play the Under

These AFC foes have met each of the last four years, so while they do not play in the same division, there is plenty of familiarity built up between these players and coaching staffs. Five of the last six meetings have gone over the total, as those six contests have seen an average of 47.3 points per game. Pittsburgh earned a 27-20 home win last season despite getting out-gained by 143 yards. Colts' QB Daniel Jones threw three interceptions and Indianapolis fumbled four times, so the Steelers' offense wasn't asked to do very much in that game. We’ve got quite the rest and travel disparity in this one. Pittsburgh had a couple extra days to prep for this one after falling at Cleveland on Thursday night, while Indianapolis returns “home” after beating Washington in London on Sunday. For all intents and purposes, the Steelers played a solid game against the Browns aside from an 11-minute period in the second quarter when Cleveland scored all three of its touchdowns. Pittsburgh had more yards, more first downs and more time of possession, but couldn't overcome two interceptions by Aaron Rodgers. Pittsburgh is hopeful to get running back Rico Dowdle back in the mix this week. Dowdle has missed time over the last few weeks with a toe injury, but he is expected to return to practice this week. Daniel Jones and the Colts' offense looked sloppy against the Commanders, but with Washington down to its third QB, Indianapolis wasn't asked to do much. The Colts only generated 257 total yards on 3.9 yards per play, but they were the beneficiary of ten Washington penalties and the Commanders went 2-of-15 on third down. Should you downgrade a team off a 17-point win? Well, we did. Indianapolis was not impressive at all against Washington last week, despite the comfortable result. Here's how the Colts' first five drives went against a Commanders' defense that is widely regarded as a bottom-10 unit in the league: Fumble, punt, punt, punt, interception. Indianapolis' first touchdown drive started on the Commanders' 46-yard-line, and the second touchdown drive started on the Commanders' 20-yard-line. Since the midway point of the 2024 season, the Steelers have gone 13-5 against the spread at home including a pair of point spread covers against the Falcons and Bengals to kick off the year. We’re expecting that run to continue on Sunday.
Play Pittsburgh Steelers

Minnesota has won-and-covered each of the last two meetings, but these NFC foes haven't met since the Vikings' 27-19 home win in November 2023. Each of the last three meetings have gone over the total. Minnesota is 4-0 straight-up, 3-1 against the spread this season. Anyone that was watching the final minute of last week's 15-10 win over Miami knows that the Vikings should probably be 4-0 against the number, but veteran tight end TJ Hockenson took a voluntary knee at the Dolphins' 1-yard-line instead of punching in the final score. Minnesota's last three games have all stayed under the total, as those three contests have seen an average of 25.3 points per game. Vikings' wide receiver Justin Jefferson did not play in that contest against the Dolphins, and his status should be monitored through out the week. New Orleans is working on a short week after falling at home to Atlanta on Monday night. With starting running back Travis Etienne Jr. placed on IR, New Orleans was only able to generate 50 rushing yards on 19 carries against the Falcons. Typically, we stick to full-game sides and totals in The Football GoldSheet newsletter, but we would be remiss if we didn't look at a first quarter or first half angle in this contest. Pop quiz! How many points have the Saints scored in the first quarter this season? Six. New Orleans has scored a total of six points in the first quarter through four games. Slow starts have been a problem for Kellen Moore ever since he arrived at the Superdome last year. New Orleans is 0-4 against the spread in the first halves this season, getting out-scored by a combined margin of 61-26. On one side, you have a rested Vikings' defense that was only on the field for 37 plays against the Dolphins. On the other side, you have a slow-starting Saints team on short rest that just allowed 7.5 yards per play to the Falcons. We'll be looking for Minnesota to jump out to another fast start in this one.
Play Minnesota Vikings 1H

The Jets earned a 27-20 home win over the Browns last season as a 2.5-point home 'dog. Both teams have changed quarterbacks since that contest as Justin Fields was New York's starter, while Dillon Gabriel was attempting to make something happen for the Browns. While neither team is known for an explosive offense, the last three meetings between the Browns and Jets have gone over the total with those three contests seeing an average of 55.0 points per game. Cleveland has won-and-covered each of its last three games after opening the year with a blow-out loss in Jacksonville. The Browns had a couple extra days to prep for this one after beating Pittsburgh at home last Thursday. The Jets' offense was missing almost half of its starting lineup in last week's loss to the Bears. Left guard Dylan Parham, wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, running back Breece Hall and tight end Mason Taylor were all out. Hall is expected to miss some time, but keep an eye on the status of Mitchell and Taylor this week because we have some interest in the over. Removing the Browns’ Week 1 disaster against Jacksonville where Deshaun Watson had plenty of rust to shake off, Cleveland's passing offense has been top-10 in the league over the last three weeks. The over is 3-1 in Cleveland's games this season, and the lone game that stayed under the total (vs Carolina) only did so by two points. The Browns had the ball with the lead at the Panthers' 15 yard line with under two minutes remaining, but elected to give the ball to Carolina via turnover on downs instead of risking a blocked field goal attempt. So we're one coaching decision away from Cleveland being 4-0 to the over, and with that being the case, we're struggling to justify a total hovering around 40. New York's offense should look a bit better than it has in recent weeks if it can get a couple key pieces off the injured list.
Play the Over

Cincinnati has won-and-covered each of the last two meetings, including a 45-21 road win in Miami last December. The Bengals only out-gained the Dolphins by 18 yards in that contest, but Miami finished with three turnovers. Joe Burrow went 25-of-32 for 309 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. We tip our cap to Miami's defense because that unit has put together a pair of decent outings against the Chiefs and Vikings in back-to-back weeks. The Dolphins didn't allow a touchdown in last week's 15-10 loss to the Vikings, forcing Minnesota to settle for five field goal attempts. The Vikings' offense was missing star receiver Justin Jefferson last week, and Miami's defense may have caught another break this week. As we go to publish on Tuesday, we don't have much information on the status of Bengals' wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who were both knocked out of last week's loss to Jacksonville. Chase will likely need to clear concussion protocol this week after suffering an apparent head injury against the Jaguars. Higgins is considered "day-to-day" as he recovers from a strained adductor. If Joe Burrow doesn't have either of his top targets available, the Bengals' offense will look quite different than what we are accustomed to. Through the first four weeks, Cincinnati's rushing attack ranks 18th in EPA per rush attempt and 18th in rushing success rate. The under is 3-1 in Miami's games this season as the Dolphins have scored between 10-13 points in all four contests. Any reason to believe that run can't continue for another week?
Play the Under

Revenge for The Tuck Rule from 25 years ago?! Whatever the reason, the Raiders have played exceptionally hard against the Patriots in recent years. Las Vegas has won-and-covered each of the last three meetings, including a 20-13 upset win in Foxboro in last year's season opener. The Raiders' defense held Drake Maye to 6.2 yards per pass attempt and the Patriots' rushing attack was only able to generate 60 yards on 18 carries. The Raiders suffered their first straight-up loss last week against the Chiefs, but they did stay within the number as a 4.5-point home 'dog. Las Vegas is 4-0 against the spread this season, covering the closing number in those contests by an average of 10.5 points per game. We played against the Raiders last week, and although we got burned, we're prepared to go back to the well. We tip our cap to first-year head coach Klint Kubiak for the way he's running this offense, but the bottom line is almost any traditional running play involving Ashton Jeanty simply is not working right now. Over the last three weeks, Jeanty is averaging 2.95 yards per carry with no touchdowns. The Raiders' offense is bottom-5 in both EPA per rush attempt and rushing success rate. Asking 38-year-old Kirk Cousins to throw 52 pass attempts last week like he did last week against Kansas City is playing with fire. It certainly hasn't been pretty at times, but New England is 3-1 against the spread this season. Last year's Super Bowl run was placed under a microscope by many pundits because the Patriots played a historically-weak schedule. Well, with the benefit of some context and hindsight, you really can't ask for a more-difficult start to the season than what New England has played thus far. Three of the Patriots' first four games have been on the road, including a cross-country trek to Seattle and a Week 3 trip to the heat and humidity of Florida. Las Vegas represents an opponent that New England can handle. The Patriots are 8-2 against the spread over their last ten home games.
Play New England Patriots

Washington has won-and-covered each of the last four meetings. Just like the Colts, Washington did not elect to take its bye week after returning home from London. With starting QB Jayden Daniels recovering from an elbow injury, back-up Marcus Mariota suffered a knee injury early in the loss to the Colts at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and did not return. Rookie Athan Kaliakmanis tried to light a spark and looked to push the ball down the field whenever possible, but with such little experience at this level, that was a tough ask. Washington only generated a total of 12 first downs after going 2-of-15 on third down and 1-for-4 on fourth down. Daniels is expected to return for this one, two weeks after suffering his second dislocated elbow over the course of a calendar year. The injury involves his non-throwing arm so his passing won't be affected, but you have to question how much Daniels will be able to use his legs and whether he can take a hit. With a sprained MCL, Mariota is no longer available as the back-up behind Daniels. When you look up "misleading final score" in the sports bettor's dictionary, you may see a highlight of the Giants' 36-24 home win over the Cardinals. Arizona had 1st-and-goal from the Giants' 4-yard-line with 22 seconds remaining. A touchdown would have tied the game and the extra point would have put the Cardinals ahead, but instead, Jacoby Brissett threw a 98-yard pick-six that Deonte Banks returned the other way. So over the course of a few seconds, New York turned a likely loss into a 12-point win. With the uncertainty around Daniels, we don't have much interest in the spread. However, his questionable health can only help support a case toward the under. The last four editions of this NFC East rivalry played at Northwest Stadium have seen an average of 37.0 points per game. Abdul Carter was a menace against the Cardinals last week, generating three QB hits and three QB hurries. Carter received Pro Football Focus' highest grade of any pass rusher last week. Washington's offense has to be built on quick plays this week because Carter can cause havoc on any long drop-backs that require time for routes to develop.
Play the Under

Houston has won six of the last seven meetings, including a two-game sweep of the Titans last year. Six of the last eight meetings have stayed under the total, including both of last year's contests which saw an average of 27.5 points per game. In those two losses from last season, the Titans' offense was only able to generate 175 and 229 total yards. Houston is 0-4 straight-up and against the spread this season after last week's 34-30 loss to the Cowboys. An early-season schedule featuring the Bills, Bengals and Cowboys was never going to be easy for DeMeco Ryans' team, but he certainly wasn't expecting to have his defense allow an average of 27.3 points per game. Dallas generated 399 total yards and 28 first downs in Houston last week while coming off nine-hour travel from Rio the week before. Running backs David Montgomery and Woody Marks combined for 46 rushing yards on 16 attempts against one of the worst defenses in the league. If this is the buy-low spot on Houston, we're struggling to see it. A worse version of Tennessee gave the Texans some fits last season. The final score of the first meeting in Houston was 26-0, but that was a 6-0 game in the fourth quarter and Tennessee's defense held star receiver Nico Collins to four catches with no touchdowns. Houston needed a walk-off field goal with no time remaining to win the second meeting in Nashville. The Titans have gotten up for this game in recent years, and although Robert Saleh leaves a lot to be desired in terms of in-game coaching, he knows how to motivate a squad. At the end of the day no one wants a participation trophy, but Tennessee did out-score Baltimore 11-0 in the second half of last week's loss in Baltimore. If there's anyone out there that can spin that into a positive sign for the Titans, that guy is Saleh.
Play Tennessee Titans

Signs of life from the moribund Chargers attack? A lifeline, perhaps, for embattled offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel? We’re talking about the second half last week vs. the Seahawks, when Justin Herbert finally got the offense moving as Jim Harbaugh’s team fought back from a 27-6 deficit to at least make things interesting in Seattle. A few caveats, however: Herbert’s first half might have been his worst 30 minutes of the season, if not his NFL career, when passing for just 36 yards with a couple of picks, and while recovering for 144 passing yards after intermission, he was also strip-sacked on the Bolts’ final drive, effectively ending the game. Moreover, the Seahawks helped keep the game closer than it should have been with a ghastly seven different 15-yard penalties, four of those coming on the Bolts’ two second-half TD drives, among the 14 flags that accounted for 150 yards worth of penalty yards. That understandably caught the ire of head coach Mike Macdonald who said, “That’s not going to be how we play football around here.” Even so, the Chargers' own sloppiness was comparable as they were flagged 16 times at Lumen Field. As for McDaniel’s status, Harbaugh continues to insist it’s not tenuous, but at 0-4, the Bolts must realize that the last NFL team to make the postseason after such an atrocious start was their predecessors from 1992 in San Diego. So, perhaps calls to Bobby Ross, Stan Humphries and Natrone Means are now in order for encouragement, though the biggest break for the Chargers this week might be injuries on the Denver side, especially the Bronco secondary that was down both of its starting corners - 2024 NFL Defensive MVP Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss - in the second half at Santa Clara last Sunday, with Surtain (ankle) for certain unable to go this week. That limits some of the special schemes and coverages that defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can draw up for his stop-unit, utilizing Surtain’s unique skills. But there are other concerns for Sean Payton, including (especially) an offense that still isn’t answering the wake-up call in the first half, now with just two field goals to show before intermission across the past three games before things marginally improve in the second half for Bo Nix. Not enough, however, for Sean Payton to continue his experiment with OC Davis Webb as the play-caller; Payton grabbed back the wheel this week and will assume his former duties, looking to jump-start an attack that ranks near the bottom of the league in most relevant offensive categories. With Seattle next on deck on Thursday night, Payton (wisely it seems) picked right now to switch back to the old formula in hopes of beating the Bolts, which they’ve never done against Herbert in a full game at So Fi Stadium (it was mostly Easton Stick taking snaps for the Chargers in 2023 when Herbert was KO’d early, the only time the Broncos have won in Inglewood). If Payton's instincts are right, Denver might start to hit on at least a few more cylinders, and fire enough scoring shots to regain some balance at SoFi.
Play Denver Broncos