Analysis

Troy has won-and-covered each of the last five meetings, including a 28-18 upset win at Southern Miss last season as a 6.5-point road 'dog. The Trojans out-gained the Eagles by 124 yards in that contest as it became clear at that point of the season that former Southern Miss head coach Charles Huff (now at Memphis) had one foot out the door in Hattiesburg. Both teams are playing with equal rest. Southern Miss is still searching for its first win over an FBS-level opponent after dropping games to Auburn, UConn and Tulane. All four of Troy's games have stayed under the total this season, which is part of a 10-game "under" streak that extends back to Halloween of last year. We don't LOVE the idea of backing Troy to win by double-digits as a low-scoring, defensive-minded team, but we can only look in the Trojans' direction. That three-point win over Sam Houston in Week 1 looked a little shaky at the time, but the Bearkats are 4-0 against the spread this season (maybe 3-1 if you caught a low number against Texas Tech two weeks ago). Troy's 27-17 loss to Missouri also looks a little better at the moment considering what the Tigers did to Florida last week. On the flip side, Southern Miss' profile isn't holding up very well. The Eagles allowed 43 points against an Auburn team that failed to crack the 17-point mark against Baylor, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. A 28-point home loss to UConn certainly isn't holding up very well. QB Landry Lyddy was sacked four times in the Eagles' recent loss to Tulane. Southern Miss' best chance for success is to keep the clock running with successful plays on the ground, but that unit was only able to average 3.85 yards per carry against the Green Wave and the Eagles went 3-of-14 on third down. As long as Trojans' QB Goose Crowder takes care of the football, Troy should cruise to a double-digit win.
Play Troy

These familiar foes met twice last season with Jacksonville State winning the regular season meeting at home, but Kennesaw got revenge in the Conference-USA Championship Game with a 19-15 victory to capture the league crown. After combining for 61 points and 1,030 yards in the first contest, both defenses made the necessary adjustments in the rematch as we saw 34 points and 624 total yards in the second game. Both teams are on equal rest. Jacksonville State hits the road after a pair of winning efforts against Georgia Southern and Middle Tennessee. Kennesaw is still searching for its first win over an FBS-level opponent after dropping games to Georgia State, Tennessee and Arkansas State. That Week 2 loss to Georgia State as a 7.5-point favorite didn't look good at the time, but the Panthers have become one of the best under-the-radar stories in college football thus far with a 4-1 mark straight-up, 5-0 against the spread. All four of Kennesaw's games have stayed under the total thus far, but in our opinion, that may be giving us some value on the over. Jacksonville State’s offense has produced some strong numbers this season, although the results haven't always shown up in the final score. Against a defensive-minded Middle Tennessee team, the Gamecocks produced 517 total yards and 25 first downs but settled for three field goals inside the Raiders' 15-yard-line. Against Georgia Southern, Jacksonville State scored all 31 of its points within a 30-minute span and the Gamecocks didn't score in the other half of the game. They experienced a very similar outcome against Ohio, scoring 24 points before the midway point of the third quarter with no more points scored over the final 23 minutes. If Jacksonville State can keep its foot on the gas for 60 minutes instead of 30-35, we're expecting to see some points in this one. Yes, the rosters have changed since last year, but we're looking at a total (50.5) that is 11 points lower than the closing total (61.5) of the game that was played ten months ago. That's a steep adjustment.
Play the Over

The home team has protected its turf in each of the last two meetings, but the Aggies and Panthers did not meet in Conference-USA play last season. Florida International earned a three-touchdown win in their last meeting in October 2024, out-gaining New Mexico State by nearly 200 yards. Florida International had an extra week to prep for this one coming off the bye, and perhaps even longer considering the Panthers' last game was against FCS-level Long Island as a 37.5-point favorite. The under is 3-1 in FIU's games this season as the Panthers' defense has allowed an average of 14.5 points per game thus far. New Mexico State is working on a condensed week after beating Western Kentucky at home last Thursday. That 34-13 final score was probably a little flattering for NMSU considering the Hilltoppers out-gained the Aggies and had more first downs, but Western Kentucky went 0-for-3 on fourth down and New Mexico State returned a pick-six for a touchdown in the second quarter to kick off the scoring barrage. Florida International has attracted some early money, and we agree with it. The Panthers' defense is No. 5 in the country in yards per play allowed this season. We imagine that FIU head coach Willie Simmons enjoys living in Miami, but he may have some options at the end of this year. In 2018, Simmons took over a Florida A&M program that was on a seven-year losing streak. He snapped that in his first season then went 9-2 the following year. By 2023, the Rattlers were 12-1, won the SWAC and won the Celebration Bowl. In the 2.5 seasons since he's been gone, FAMU has gone 13-16. He knows how to recruit, too, as the Panthers attracted the No. 3 class of incoming talent in Conference USA entering this season, while New Mexico State had the lowest-rated class in the league. The Panthers have earned our trust in a spot like this.
Play Florida International

The Flames and Bearkats have been involved in some tight affairs since Sam Houston joined the FBS ranks in 2023. Liberty earned a 21-16 home win in October 2023, never coming close to covering the spread as a 21.5-point favorite in their debut meeting. Sam Houston earned a 20-18 upset win as a small home 'dog in November 2024. The Bearkats are coming off a well-timed bye week after a hard-fought loss at Texas Tech the week prior. That 49-14 final score is awfully flattering for the Red Raiders, considering that was a 21-14 game at halftime and Texas Tech scored two touchdowns off interceptions. QB Landyn Locke was probably a little too amp'd up against the Red Raiders, but he's still shown some notable improvement in his second stint leading the SHSU offense. Liberty has won four in a row, including a 30-14 road win at Delaware last Friday against a trio of Blue Hens' back-up quarterbacks. We've mentioned it a couple times already this season, but the sentiment continues to grow stronger as the season wears on: Liberty's 20-13 loss at James Madison in Week 1 now looks like a quality result considering the Dukes are 5-0 straight-up and against the spread. James Madison has covered the spread in each of its last four games by double digits, so Liberty out-gaining the Dukes and holding them to 291 total yards now looks like a really strong result with the benefit of some hindsight and context. We are encouraged by what we have seen from Locke and the Bearkats' offense thus far, and we are interested in the over. Liberty was able to take its foot off the gas last week once it became apparent that Delaware wasn't going to pose much of a threat with a back-up QB. That might not be the case in this one. Sam Houston can push the pace and find the scoreboard, but like we saw two weeks ago against Texas Tech, the Bearkats can also gift some free points to the opposition.
Play the Over

Western Kentucky earned a 27-22 road win at Missouri State last season. That game featured nearly 900 total yards of offense, but stayed under the closing total by ten points as both teams combined for six field goal attempts after three drives stalled within the opposing five-yard-line. Missouri State is coming off a bye week. The Bears are still looking for their first win over an FBS-level opponent after dropping non-conference games against Texas A&M, Marshall and SMU. The same is true in Bowling Green where the Hilltoppers' season is on the brink of collapse. You can excuse blow-out losses at Georgia and Indiana, but losing by a combined score of 83-27 against Nevada and New Mexico State is inexcusable. With four of the first five games played on the road, this is Western Kentucky's first home game against an FBS-level opponent this season. This number has opened in line with our power ratings, but we simply have no interest in Western Kentucky at the moment. With road games at Nevada, Georgia, Indiana and New Mexico State to open the campaign, the Hilltoppers' season was essentially toast before it even began. The bumps and bruises that you acquire from playing in Athens and Bloomington add up in a hurry, and this Western Kentucky team simply is not responding. Playing a rested Bears team off a bye is certainly not going to help. Bears or pass, in our opinion.

Each of the last five meetings between the RedWolves and Jaguars have stayed under the total, as those five contests have seen an average of 35.2 points per game. Arkansas State has covered the spread as a 'dog in each of the last three meetings, including a 15-14 upset as an 8.5-point road 'dog at South Alabama last season. Both teams are on equal rest after playing last Saturday. The Jaguars got a strong effort from back-up QB Jared Hollins, who went 14-of-19 for 321 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in last week's win over UL-Monroe. That result was good enough to cement Hollins as the full-time starter moving forward. There were question marks surrounding incumbent starter Bishop Davenport, who hasn't been seen since Week 2. South Alabama has gone 2-1 without him, and the Jaguars' coaching staff feels good moving forward with Hollins at the helm. South Alabama's last four games have all gone over the total. Arkansas State is coming off a hard-fought loss at Louisiana last week. The RedWolves held a lead midway through the fourth quarter, but the Ragin' Cajuns kicked the winning field goal as time expired. We are interested in backing the RedWolves at home. The move from Davenport to Hollins caught a lot of folks (us included) by surprise. But now opposing coaches have more tape on Hollins, and that initial "new QB bump" that some teams experience is now beginning to wear off. Hollins was only able to complete 53.5-percent of his passes against Kentucky with two interceptions and three sacks. The RedWolves' defense is certainly a step down from the Wildcats of the SEC, but Arkansas State is still a tough place to make the second road start of your career.
Play Arkansas State

The Bulls earned a 55-23 home win over the RoadRunners last season as a two-touchdown favorite. South Florida and UTSA have only met twice since becoming league mates in The American Conference, with those two games seeing an average of 74.0 points per game. USF fans would love to see an offensive outburst like that because the Bulls have been stuck in neutral all season for first-time head coach Brian Hartline. The cupboard in Tampa was not very full when Hartline arrived, but it was fair to assume that Ohio State's former top assistant would be able to build a competitive offense in a short amount of time. Instead, the Bulls have failed to crack the 20-point mark against Florida International, Bowling Green and Temple. Dating back to the end of last season, the under has cashed in six of South Florida's last eight games. The Bulls' rushing attack was only able to produce 3.35 yards per carry last week against Temple. UTSA is 4-1 to kick off the 2026 campaign with the lone loss coming at top-ranked Texas. There's been some sharp early-week money on the under in this contest, and we agree with it. Bulls' QB Michael Van Buren Jr. only has three touchdown passes this season, and he's only contributing an average of 2.4 yards per carry on the ground. UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor is known for attracting top defensive linemen in the transfer portal, which usually translates to a strong rushing defense. The RoadRunners held Rice's run-heavy attack below 4.0 yards per play last week. They only allowed 4.7 yards per carry against the Longhorns and no Texas running back generated more than 54 yards on the ground. If the South Florida offense can't generate success through the air, then the Bulls are going to struggle against the RoadRunners' defense.
Play the Under

Florida State has won-and-covered each of the last two meetings, but this will be the first time the Cards and Seminoles have met since the notorious 2023 ACC Championship Game. Florida State earned a 16-6 victory in that contest with back-up QB Brock Glenn throwing for 55 yards on 21 passing attempts. Since that win over the Cardinals, the Seminoles have gone 10-20 straight-up, 11-19 against the spread. Vibes are a little bit higher in Tallahassee, however, after last week's 38-7 victory over Virginia. Florida State attracted some sharp action in the betting market prior to that contest as word began to spread that Cavs' QB Beau Pribula was not 100-percent. That became pretty apparent early on as the Seminoles' defense held Pribula to 168 passing yards on 32 attempts and he was sacked ten times. Also, that Week 3 loss at Alabama looks A LITTLE bit better when you consider the juggernaut that the Crimson Tide have become in recent weeks. In fact, Florida State is the only team to cover the spread against Alabama this season. Louisville has dropped back-to-back games against Wake Forest and NC State. QB Lincoln Kienholz was facing some injury concerns last week, but the Cardinals' offense wasn't the problem against the Wolfpack. NC State's somewhat-limited offense was able to generate 26 first downs and 493 yards against Louisville's defense. Some early money has shown on Florida State, and while we can certainly understand the move, we have our hesitation. Let's not forget, the Seminoles struggled with FCS-level Central Arkansas the week before (first downs were 24-22 and the Seminoles' defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes). Against Virginia, Florida State's first three possessions generated a total of 25 yards. The Seminoles' second touchdown drive started on the Virginia 33-yard-line. With an apparently-injured QB in Pribula, Virginia was doing everything to hand Florida State the game and it still took the Seminoles the whole first half to take it. Louisville has had issues this season, but the Cardinals are not going to gift this game to the 'Noles on a silver platter like Virginia did last week. Also, all five of Florida State's touchdowns were scored on runs by QB Ashton Daniels. Louisville's defense should know what to expect after watching that performance last week.
Play Louisville

There might not be much use for those purple lights on top of the Space Needle that used to illuminate whenever the Huskies win a game. Instead, they’re about to post an online poll in the Seattle Times to decide who among Mariners manager Dan Wilson (now dismissed) or Washington head coach Jedd Fisch is doing a worse job this season, as Fisch might be soon getting into Wilson territory. The Huskies have had to readjust their sights to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix after back-to-back losses in very winnable games vs. Minnesota and USC. What’s wrong? Regional insiders have noted a potential disconnect between QB Demond “Mr. NIL” Williams and his team since his publicized dalliance with LSU in the portal last winter, and Williams’ NFL stock now dropping like an out-of-favor dot-com while Fisch isn’t even trying to balance the offense with a ground game that ranks a sickly 126th nationally (one place behind winless Charlotte, for gosh sakes!). That unit badly misses the physical presence of the departed Jonah Coleman, now drawing paychecks from the NFL Broncos. Many Big Ten observers are also wondering if the Hawkeyes aren’t being a bit shortchanged by the oddsmakers here, even with the questionable status of QB Hank Brown, who left last week’s game vs. Ohio State with a shoulder injury. Backup Jeremy Hecklinski hardly looked a deer-in-the-headlights vs. the Buckeyes, getting the ball downfield and leading Iowa on a TD drive. Moreover, despite proving it was still mortal and unable to slow Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (who can?) last week, the Hawkeyes have another typically-robust Phil Parker defense that still ranks No. 8 nationally in points allowed (12.6 per game). Grudgingly conceding only 2.9 yards per carry, Parker’s platoon also looks a good bet to turn Fisch’s offense one-dimensional once again, and we’re simply not seeing enough from QB Williams as we did last fall to trust him overcoming those shortcomings. Note, too, that despite the loss to the Buckeyes, Iowa has still covered six of its last seven as a dog for Kirk Ferentz, and is a sparkling 13-4 vs. the line since last season. Meanwhile, the host Huskies have now failed to cover five-straight in Seattle.
Play Iowa

Maybe that was just part of Pamela Ewing’s long-ago dream episode on Dallas when Wyoming actually scored 27 points and gained almost 400 yards of offense the week before in a thumping win over Hawaii. Yet at the Fargodome in the “Craig Bohl Bowl” last Saturday, it was back to reality as the Cowboys we have come to expect reappeared vs. North Dakota State and then promptly disappeared, with zero points and only 162 yards gained to show for a heavy 28-0 loss to the Bison. It’s apparent that with the nation’s 131st-ranked overall and 135th-ranked scoring offense, Jay Sawvel’s raid on William & Mary in the offseason for the Tribe’s OC (Christian Taylor) and QB (Tyler Hughes, with just 2 TD passes and six picks to date) isn’t working as planned. Meanwhile, at least Ken Niumatalolo has made some progress with his 3-2 San Jose State side that has favorable scheduling the next three weeks to get bowl-eligible (really!) before the slate begins to toughen up down the stretch. Remember, the Spartans have been good enough to go on the road for a couple of wins already (at Eastern Michigan and last week at Hawaii), and have found some balance on offense with senior RB Jabari Bates on course for a 1,000-yard season. Moreover, save for one bad effort vs. a rugged Fresno defense when tossing four picks, Rainbow Warrior transfer QB Luke Weaver has fired 11 TD passes and gives the Spartans the kind of aerial dimension that Wyoming has been only able to dream about with the struggling Hughes. Plus, with the easiest trip (relatively-speaking) back to the mainland from Honolulu, there should be no hangover from Saturday's rousing win over the Rainbow Warriors. Note, too, that the whispers around the Mountain West are now getting a bit more audible that Sawvel’s job could be on the line in Laramie if the Cowboys don’t start displaying some more consistent punch on offense...and soon.
Play San Jose State

There’s word that the CW is getting inundated with ad requests from the makers of No-Doz whenever Washington State gets one of the evening slots on the new version of “Pac-12 After Dark.” So far, watching Kirby Moore’s first edition of the Cougs has been a fine alternative to counting sheep before going to sleep, as nothing is happening when Wazzu has the ball. The latest example produced just six points and 182 yards of offense in last Saturday's yawning loss to Fresno State. Perhaps the young (he’s only 36) Moore deserves a mulligan as this was a total rebuild in the Palouse after Jimmy Rogers kept the Cougs afloat a year ago following some deft work in the portal before taking many of them with him to Iowa State. In the meantime, Moore is saddled with an FCS-transfer (Caden Pinnick, via UC Davis, with just three TD passes and five interceptions to date) as his most-viable alternative at QB. Yet without receivers getting open downfield, Pinnick’s scrambles from the pocket have been among the most-effective plays for this attack that save for the 316 rush yards it piled up vs. FCS Duquesne (they still play football at Duquesne?) has rushed for only 81 yards per game, which would put it ahead of only lowly Northern Illinois and its interim coach in national rush stats. At least Bronco Mendenhall’s Aggies are showing a bit more life, squeezing inside of a spread at high-flying Boise last week in a third game against ranked foes the past month. Credit the Ags for trying to throw some leather vs. the big boys, as improving Virginia transfer QB Grady Brosterhous has tossed a pair of TD passes in two-straight games, while RB Javen Jacobs provided some needed spark to the infantry on the blue carpet when breaking off a couple of long gainers en route to 139 rushing yards vs. the Broncos. Though Mendenhall gave a brief look to early-season QB starter McCae Hillstead (BYU transfer; injured in Idaho State opener) last week, Brosterhous has the better handle on the offense and likely sees the majority of snaps and gives Utah State an edge here. Moreover, though many of the faces have changed on the Cougar side since last December, it’s a chance for the Aggies to avenge a 34-21 loss in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against a better (and more-potent) WSU side that piled up 628 yards worth of offense in Boise. We’re not expecting to see those fireworks on Friday night.
Play the Under

After looking like they might have been better served to bring in devoted BYU fan Marie Osmond for a pre-game pep talk to get their attention last week, it is fair to wonder if Kalani Sitake’s Cougars might already be looking forward to the two games that will likely have the most-bearing on their playoff hopes, starting with next week’s visit of Notre Dame to Provo and a short ride up I-15 to Salt Lake City to face the hated Utes three weeks later. Drizzly conditions in Fort Worth and an aroused TCU defense might have had something to do with a lethargic showing last Saturday vs. the Horned Frogs, and the result (and narrow spread W) not salted away until recovering an onside kick in the last minute to preserve the grinding 17-10 win. Yet the mere 216 yards of offense at Amon Carter Stadium, and QB Bear Bachmeier unable to look downfield (we’ll say, just 62 passing yards on 24 attempts–just 2.6 yards per pass!) are issues that Sitake and OC Aaron Roderick are going to have to address ASAP. Moreover, top rusher LJ Martin (1,305 rushing yards in 2025, and on another 1,000-yard pace this season) went out early with an ankle injury in Fort Worth and is expected out at least a month, meaning he'll miss facing the Domers next week, too. Yet his absence potentially robs BYU of one of its most-dynamic elements who might be needed to extend the margin on a scrappy bunch of Cyclones who were within one score of Utah into the final minutes two weeks ago at Ames and are further battle-tested by a three-point loss at rugged Iowa and last week’s shootout win over an improved Rich Rodriguez West Virginia edition. New head coach Jimmy Rogers knows what it’s like to win (including an FCS title a few years ago at South Dakota State) and has crafted an incredibly-balanced attack at ISU that’s gained 971 yards through the air and 987 on the ground. All after Rogers found his serviceable QB in the portal when luring three-year starter Jaylen Raynor from Butch Jones’ Arkansas State, with dual-threat Raynor tossing a TD pass in all five games to date. Rogers also uncovered a big-play machine in holdover sophomore RB Aiden Flora, who ranks 7th nationally with 594 rushing yards and who destroyed the Mountaineers last week with 212 yards and three TDs, including 24 and 63-yard TD lightning bolts. In the end, BYU's brawling defense, allowing only 268 yards per game, likely proves the ultimate edge, but this would be a tough test for the Cougs regardless of the scheduling, with the potential look ahead to the Fighting Irish adding an extra degree of peril for the hosts.
Play Iowa State

Indiana earned a 56-7 home win over the Huskers in October 2024, which was one of the first stops on Curt Cignetti's tour de force through the Big Ten in his debut campaign. Things have turned around in Lincoln since then as the Huskers are 5-0 straight-up, 4-1 against the spread to open the 2026 campaign. After falling behind 16-7 in the first quarter against Maryland, Big Red responded by closing the game on a 41-7 run over the final three frames. Anthony Colandrea threw for three touchdowns and was the Huskers' leading rusher last week against the Terps. They still have a long way to go before they can be compared to Blackshirt defenses of the past, but this year's version has allowed an average of 14.2 points per game so far this season. Indiana picked up its first point spread cover of the year with a 32-point road win at Rutgers last week. The Hoosiers looked like the defending national champs once again as they out-gained the Knights 593-254 with a 26-9 advantage in first downs. Cignetti's brand of mistake-free football was on display as Indiana did not commit a turnover, did not commit a penalty and the Hoosiers' offensive line only allowed one sack. If we were writing a letter to Huskers' head coach Matt Rhule, it would start with "It's not you, it's us." Until proven otherwise, we simply can't trust Nebraska in this spot. Admittedly, this year's team does look improved and we wouldn't be shocked if Nebraska hung tough. But in terms of the trust factor, Cignetti has it and Rhule doesn't. Take a look back at all of Nebraska's big games last season. Neutral site against Cincinnati in Week 1? Didn't cover. Pick'em at home against Michigan? Lost by a field goal. Road favorite at Minnesota? Lost by 18. Short road 'dog at Penn State with an interim head coach and a third string QB? Lost by 27. Short home 'dog to Iowa in the regular season finale? Lost by 24. Bettors have seen this story play out in the past, and guys like Cignetti tend to be one step ahead of guys like Rhule.
Play Indiana