Analysis

The home team has won-and-covered each of the last nine meetings in this AFC North rivalry. Four of the last five meetings have stayed under the total, including both of last year's contests which were both lined with a closing total in the 30s. Since the final month of the 2024-25 regular season, the Steelers have gone 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 road games. Pittsburgh earned a 30-27 win over the Bengals in a game where the Steelers' offense could seemingly do no wrong. One week after scoring a total of three points on 3.5 yards per play against the Patriots, Pittsburgh's offense exploded for 411 total yards and 22 first downs on 7.0 yards per play against Cincinnati. Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns and Jaylen Warren added 127 yards on the ground. Just how surprising was the Steelers' offensive output against the Bengals last week? That was the first time Pittsburgh scored more than seven points in the first quarter of a game since Week 1 of the 2022 season when Mitchell Trubisky was the starting quarterback (69 games ago). Cleveland didn't see quite the same offensive explosion against Carolina, but the Browns made enough plays to squeak a 21-18 victory in their home opener. Deshaun Watson continues to show a little bit more confidence in his legs, running for 45 yards on 11 carries against the Panthers' defense. First-year head coaches like Cleveland’s Todd Monken have traditionally struggled in their Thursday Night Football debut because of the shortened prep period. From NFL analyst ClevTA: First-year head coaches making their Thursday debut have gone 20-40 straight-up, 24-35-1 (40.7-percent) against the spread. Teams that were a home 'dog in that situation have gone 3-18 straight-up, 6-14-1 (30.0-percent) against the spread while missing the cover by an average of 4.3 points per game. Neither team is particularly trustworthy at the moment, but we're inclined to side with Pittsburgh as a short road favorite. The Browns are 31st in EPA per rush attempt and 26th in rushing success rate. Cleveland hasn't shown the ability to run on a consistent basis, and that will allow the Steelers' pass rush to attack Watson from a variety of angles.
Play Pittsburgh Steelers

This is the first meeting between these cross-conference foes since Washington won in Indianapolis in October 2022. This will be the 13th game played at London's Tottenham Hotspur Stadium since 2019. The venue has produced some low-scoring results in recent years as the last six games played at Hotspur Stadium have seen an average of 40.0 points per game. Minnesota beat Cleveland 21-17 and the Broncos beat the Jets 13-11 in last year's games at White Hart Lane. Indianapolis earned its first win of the season in gutsy fashion, holding Houston to 223 total yards and 17 first downs on 4.4 yards per play. While battling a groin injury suffered during pregame warm-ups, kicker Spencer Shrader went 4-for-4 including a 58-yard field goal at the end of the first half and the game-winning 53-yarder with 16 seconds remaining. The Colts' offense was simply able to play keep-away from the Texans, running 20 more plays on offense while going 7-of-15 on third down and 2-for-2 on fourth down. Washington also showed plenty of grit last week, holding off Seattle as an eight-point home 'dog. The Seahawks out-gained the Commanders by 179 yards with a +2.8 yards per play advantage, but Washington played mistake-free football with no turnovers and Marcus Mariota was only sacked twice. The Commanders' injury report has been a mess this season. QB Jayden Daniels, tight end Chig Okonkwo, offensive guard Samuel Cosmi, linebacker Frankie Luvu and safety Nick Cross all missed last week's win over the Seahawks, and linebacker Leo Chenal suffered a season-ending injury in that contest. The Colts placed wide receiver Alec Pierce on IR with an injured heel. We're quite surprised that this total has opened at 47 and we have a strong interest in the under. Three of Washington's touchdowns last week came directly off Seahawk turnovers, with one drive starting at the Seattle 21-yard-line, another drive that started on the 32 and one interception that was returned for a touchdown. Here's what the Commanders' offense did on drives that started in a conventional manner: Punt, punt, punt, TD, punt, FG, punt, punt, punt, FG. Washington's defense has some major holes, but the Colts aren't the team to take advantage. Indianapolis' offense is 28th in EPA per drop-back and 19th in passing success rate thus far, and the absence of Pierce leaves a big hole in the Colts’ already-struggling pass attack.
Play the Under

The road team won-and-covered both meetings last season. New England earned a 23-20 upset as a 7.5-point road 'dog in Buffalo last October, and the Bills returned the favor in a big matchup in Foxboro two months later. In both contests, the team that won the yardage battle lost the game. Dating back to the start of last year's playoffs, six of New England's last seven games have stayed under the total and those seven contests have seen an average of 29.9 points per game. The lone game that went over the total was the Patriots' Division Round playoff game against the Texans, which featured five fumbles and five interceptions. From Week 1 of last season through the AFC Championship Game, Patriots’ QB Drake Maye went 20-straight weeks without throwing multiple interceptions in a game. Including the Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks, Maye has now thrown multiple interceptions in three of his last four games after laying another dud last week against the Jaguars. Maye was sacked three times and turned the ball over three times in last week's 35-6 loss in Jacksonville. If New England is looking for a place to find an offensive spark, Orchard Park is the right locale. The Bills have moved across the street from old Highmark Stadium to the shiny new version, but Bills' home games since the start of the 2024-25 season have gone 15-7 to the over. Patriots' defensive tackle Christian Barmore was taken out of last week's loss to the Jaguars with a shoulder injury, while star receiver AJ Brown remains on IR. Buffalo remains in relatively-good health through the first three weeks. Cornerback Christian Benford was seen in a walking boot after last week's win over the Chargers after suffering a toe injury. It's not one of our favorite plays on this week's card, but we have this game lined above a touchdown so seeing -6.5 for the Bills has our attention. This is Buffalo's third-straight game at Highmark Stadium, so the Bills should be familiar with their new surroundings. Even with all of last week's turnover issues against the Chargers, Buffalo's offense still sits top-5 in the league in EPA per play (No. 2), offensive success rate (No. 5), EPA per drop-back (No. 2), EPA per rush attempt (No. 1) and rushing success rate (No. 1). And that's against a schedule with three teams that all finished above .500 last season.
Play Buffalo Bills

This is the first meeting between the Jets and Bears since New York earned a 31-10 home win over Chicago in November 2022. How much does coaching matter in the NFL? There may be no better example than this matchup between the Jets and Bears. On Monday night, Ben Johnson led Chicago to a convincing victory against the Eagles with a 38-year-old third-string QB at the helm who hadn't taken a snap in three years. On the other side, Aaron Glenn's curious decisions continue to be viewed under a microscope in Florham Park. Decisions matter the most during end-of-half and end-of-game situations as head coaches have to balance clock management and timeout usage. During Glenn's 20-game tenure with the Jets, New York has been out-scored by 69 points during the final four minutes of the first half and full game. Detroit out-scored New York by 14 points in those pressure situations last week, which proved to be the difference in the Lions' win-and-cover at Ford Field. The Jets' offense has suffered some major blows over the last week. Wide receiver Adonai Mitchell and tight end Mason Taylor were both unable to go last week against the Lions, while running back Breece Hall and offensive guard Dylan Parham were both knocked out of that contest. As we go to print on Tuesday, there is very little clarity on the Bears' quarterback situation. Early reports suggest that Caleb Williams will not be ready for this game as he recovers from a hamstring injury, but normal-backup Tyson Bagent will likely leapfrog Case Keenum in the pecking order after clearing concussion protocol. Keenum was fantastic against Philadelphia on Monday, going 24-of-34 through the air with three touchdowns and no interceptions. We don't LOVE the idea of backing Chicago on a short week after an emotional Monday Night Football win, but the Bears' defense was only on the field for 47 snaps. With the Eagles going 2-of-9 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth down, Chicago's defense wasn't asked to do very much against Philadelphia. That may end up being the case once again at home on Sunday.
Play Chicago Bears

Arizona has covered the number in each of the last five installments of this NFC matchup, with the last one coming in September 2023. Arizona is 2-0 against the spread away from home this season, which is just a small piece of the Cardinals' success on the road in recent years. Since mid-November 2023, Arizona has gone 15-8 against the spread away from home. The Cardinals covered the spread in their first four road games last season before injuries and attrition began to mount. The Giants made the not-so-surprising move to acquire quarterback JJ McCarthy from Minnesota in exchange for a fifth round draft pick. We imagine that Giants' head coach John Harbaugh has seen plenty of McCarthy's film from the past after he won a national championship at Michigan under John's brother, Jim, in 2024. Asking McCarthy to start this week sounds like a tall ask, so we're looking in the Cardinals' direction against a punchless Giants' offense. The weather was poor at MetLife Stadium last week, but New York was only able to generate four field goals and 238 total yards against the Titans last week. Jameis Winston is only completing 51.0-percent of his passes thus far with no touchdowns, one interception and five sacks. Giants' defensive end Brian Burns reportedly tore his ACL during Sunday’s win over the Titans. Cornerback Deonte Banks and safety Tyler Nubin were both unable to go last week against Tennessee. It's a small sample size, but the seeds for quick improvement on offense are being planted by first-year head coach Mike LaFleur. The Cardinals' offense sits 12th in EPA per play and tenth in offensive success rate through three games after placing 23rd and 24th in those respective categories last year. And that's against a difficult schedule that features Seattle, San Francisco and a should-have-been-better Chargers' defense.
Play Arizona Cardinals

Whether Jerry Jones agrees or not, this certainly isn’t a modern-day version of Tom Landry’s old Cowboys “Doomsday Defense” from the 60s and 70s, not after unforgivably allowing Lamar Jackson to get the Ravens into last-second field goal range last Sunday in Rio de Janeiro merely the latest example of recurring shortcomings on the defense. While a recent spate of injuries hasn't helped, it's the same old tune for Jones and Brian Schottenheimer, who had hoped an infusion of new faces via the draft and free agency, plus a supposed new state-of-the-art defensive coordinator in Christian Parker (recently on Broncos and Eagles staffs), would solidify the stop unit. Not yet! The good news for Jones, however, is that Dallas at least has a win and the Texans don’t, with a crisis of confidence now afflicting CJ Stroud and the Houston attack that might have missed home run WR Nico Collins more than envisioned the past two weeks in losses to the Bengals and Colts when the offense did little, scoring only a combined 23 points. Collins (hamstring) might be able to give it a go this week, but that’s not the only issue for Houston, which also isn’t running the ball with any consistency (only 3.6 yards per carry) to take some of the pressure off of Stroud, in turn causing a still-robust stop unit to carry more than its share of the burden. Rest assured, too, there are still plenty of Cowboys (and Jones) who remember Houston laying a 34-10 beating on them in Arlington two years ago when Dak Prescott was out and Cooper Rush looked helpless against the Texans’ pressure defense. Keep in mind as well that Dak is just one game removed from four TD passes vs. the Commanders, and the intermediate routes of the Dallas passing attack are well-suited to exploit the Texans’ zone-heavy schemes, while Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens always lurk out wide as ever-present dangerous targets to stretch the field. Though Houston's DeMeco Ryans surely knows that no NFL team since the 1992 Chargers has recovered from an 0-4 start to make the playoffs, he might be soon be giving Bobby Ross a call, or dialing up Stan Humphries, for some advice. Each of the Cowboys' first three games this season have gone over the total, which is part of a larger 14-2-1 "over" trend since the early stages of last season.
Play the Over

Cincinnati has won-and-covered each of the last four meetings in this AFC matchup, including a 31-27 home win over the Jaguars last season. Each of the last five meetings have gone over the total, with those five contests seeing an average of 54.0 points per game. Both of these teams have gotten through the first three weeks of the season in good health. Defensive tackle Albert Regis was the only Jaguar unable to play last week against the Patriots, while Bengals' defensive tackle B.J. Hill is the only notable name on Cincinnati's early-week report. We were on the Jaguars last week against the Patriots and we are prepared to go right back to the same well. With last week's win over New England, Liam Coen became the first coach to win 15 of his first 20 games at the helm since Green Bay's Matt LaFleur did it six years ago. Jacksonville's offense has quietly produced a better success rate than Buffalo, Dallas, Kansas City and Los Angeles through the first three games. While most other teams build around a No. 1 wide receiver in the passing game, Coen can mix-and-match any number of weapons in his offense. Receivers Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. are all capable of featuring in the offense, and tight end Brenton Strange provides a reliable target for tight end Trevor Lawrence. Cincinnati's passing offense used to be the gold standard when it came to feeding several mouths, but Jacksonville may have passed Joe Burrow and Co. Since Week 11 of last season, the Jaguars have gone 10-2 straight-up and against the spread across their last 12 games.
Play Jacksonville Jaguars

The road team has won each of the last three meetings in this NFC matchup, with the last one being Tampa Bay's 34-20 win in Green Bay in December 2023. Tampa Bay has lost 12-straight games against the spread, which is the longest point spread losing streak in the Super Bowl era. The Bucs' last point spread cover came in Week 8 against the Saints before Halloween last year. Bucs' QB Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb in the final plays of Sunday's loss to the Vikings. Mayfield will undergo an MRI this week to assess the damage and recovery plan. Early indications suggest Mayfield will likely miss the next 2-4 weeks, handing the reins of the Bucs’ offense to rookie Jalon Daniels. The Kansas product showed a big arm in limited action against Minnesota last week. Daniels went 0-for-3, but most of those incompletions came as a result of needing a big play to try and tie the game in the final minute. Trusting a rookie making his first career start to produce points is a dangerous proposition, but we are inclined to look toward the over in this matchup. Green Bay fell to the Falcons last Thursday without offensive linemen Zach Bako-Bewele and Aaron Banks, plus defensive tackle Warren Brinson and wide receiver Jayden Reed. The Packers signed veteran offensive lineman Mekhi Becton on Monday, hoping to add some stability to that fractured unit. With so many issues in the Packers' running game, Jordan Love attempted 53 passes against the Falcons last week while running backs Kaleb Johnson and MarShawn Lloyd combined for 17 rushing yards on eight carries. You can't really pin that on Green Bay playing from behind and needing to throw the ball because that was a 10-7 game through 29 minutes, and the Falcons didn't build a sizable lead until the final minutes of the third quarter. At a time when Green Bay is willing to throw the ball 50+ times, should we have an opening total under 40 points?! Who knows what we'll see from Daniels, but with a rookie QB making his first start, the chance for a defensive score is certainly on the table. With a combined record of 1-5, neither team has anything to lose at this point of the season. We expect both coaching staffs to throw the kitchen sink at this one.
Play the Over

Philadelphia has won ten of the last 11 meetings with Los Angeles, including three victories over the last two seasons. Eight of the last nine contests between the Eagles and Rams have gone over the total. LA blew a 26-7 lead at Lincoln Financial Field last season. Jalen Hurts connected with DeVonta Smith for the go-ahead touchdown with under two minutes remaining, and the Eagles' special teams unit blocked LA's game-winning field goal attempt as time expired. We're not sure how much of the Rams' early-season struggles should be blamed on their schedule and travel, but Sean McVay has been elite at preventing losing streaks and getting a strong bounce-back effort following a loss. Los Angeles is 34-20-3 against the spread following a straight-up loss, and blindly backing the Rams in this spot would have produced a +20.5-percent ROI since McVay took over the Rams' program. Rams' wide receiver Puka Nacua has missed each of the last two games, and head coach Sean McVay was not beaming with optimism that Nacua would be back at full strength in this game. Speaking of 'not beaming with optimism,' that would be a kind way to describe what Eagles fans are feeling this week after watching their team score seven points on Monday night in Chicago. If the timekeeper had a slightly-faster finger, Philadelphia would have gotten shut-out against the Bears because the lone touchdown was scored with one second (probably closer to 0.1) remaining in the first half. Since the beginning of the 2025 season, the Eagles' offense has produced 60 drives that have gone three-and-out (29.0-percent is the highest rate in the NFL). During that time, Philadelphia's average distance-to-go on third down is 7.7 yards, which is the second-highest mark in the league. The Eagles' rushing attack has produced either zero or negative yards on 131 rushing attempts, which is the second-highest mark in the league. The coaching changes and wide receiver moves have produced very little difference thus far. The Rams know how to bounce back from a loss under McVay, and while Lincoln Financial Field is typically a tough place to play, the Philly Phaithful may have an appetite to turn sour on the home team if this offensive spiral continues.
Play Los Angeles Rams

Baltimore has won-and-covered each of the last two meetings, with the last one being a 24-16 road win in Nashville in October 2023. Since the beginning of the 2024-25 season, Tennessee is 4-14 straight-up, 5-13 against the spread away from home. Ravens' wide receiver Zay Flowers returned to action last week against the Cowboys, but the offensive line is becoming a concern. Offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley did not make the trek to Brazil with a toe injury, and fellow linemen Ethan Pocic and Jovaughn Gwyn along with tight end Mark Andrews were all injured during the game. We don't LOVE the idea of backing Baltimore off a ten-hour flight home from Brazil, but Tennessee has shown us absolutely nothing thus far. That Week 1 loss to the Jets isn't holding up very well considering New York has lost its last two games. Tennessee's "good" performance against the Eagles in Week 2 isn't holding up very well considering Philadelphia is 0-3 against the spread and just lost by 20 to a third-string QB. What can Tennessee hang its hat on at the moment? Cam Ward is only generating 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Dallas laid a nice blueprint on how to attack Baltimore's defense as CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens combined for 14 receptions and 194 yards, but the Titans' passing attack has no shot at replicating that kind of production. The Ravens have a habit of stubbing their toe against inferior competition (i.e. losing to New Orleans as an 8.5-point home favorite), but Baltimore already got that out of their system this year. When favored by at least nine points, the Ravens have gone 6-2 against the spread since 2023 with an average margin of victory at 20.1 points per game.
Play Baltimore Ravens