Analysis

Back properly among the welterweights after suffering a couple of painful beatdowns at top five-ranked heavyweights Georgia and Indiana in September, Tyson Helton’s Hilltoppers can get back to business in Conference USA and take aim at their normal minor bowl berth. It was a big drop from the Hoosiers down to the FCS Mercyhurst Lakers last week, but Western Kentucky did regain a bit of swagger with its 52 points and near 600-yard onslaught. QB Rodney Tisdale in particular appreciated more favorable opposition while passing for over 300 yards and three TDs. Granted, New Mexico State represents a step up from Mercyhurst, but the Aggies are also a far cry from Georgia and Indiana, and the skittery Tisdale might continue his recent feel-good against the same Tony Sanchez defense he burned for 301 passing yards and four TDs in a 35-16 Hilltopper romp last November 1 in Bowling Green. In fact, Helton has beaten Sanchez like a drum the past two seasons with WKU winning each matchup by comfy double-digit margins. Further, not to compare results vs. Mercyhurst, but Sanchez and his Aggies had a lot more trouble vs. the NEC Lakers in September, trailing late in the first half before a late three-TD flurry in the fourth quarter provided a more-flattering scoreline. Sanchez might have other concerns on Thursday, too, after pulling scattershot Furman transfer QB Trey Hedden last weekend at home vs. rival New Mexico thanks to Hedden’s latest mistake-filled effort (two picks and a fumble) that prompted a switch to backup Adam Damante - a move that I-10 sources suggest will likely result in a QB switch to start this game at midweek. As Sanchez has also only won one of those last five outright at home vs. C-USA foes since late 2024, any Las Cruces edge also seems negligible at best.
Play Western Kentucky

Perhaps Tulsa has an excuse for last week's heavy loss at Arkansas as QB Baylor Hayes missed a second consecutive game due to a knee injury. Kennesaw State (and elsewhere) transfer Dexter Williams II has FBS starting experience in the past and he looked plenty serviceable when tossing three TDs vs. East Texas A&M on September 19, and wasn't completely helpless vs. the Razorbacks last week. Or, maybe the Golden Hurricane was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time last Saturday in Fayetteville, catching the full fury of the Razorbacks as Ryan Silverfield's troops looked intent on taking out their frustrations (for perhaps the last time this season) before SEC play resumes for them in October. Yet it also suggests that the Golden Hurricane’s early startling upset of Oklahoma State might have been a one-off, as Tulsa (with Hayes going most of the way) had a struggle vs. C-USA bottom feeder Sam Houston in the subsequent week. Meanwhile, even after head coach Eric Morris departed for Oklahoma State after last season along with several Denton stars (such as QB Drew Mestemaker and RB Caleb Hawkins), Neal Brown’s first Mean Green edition is demonstrating plenty of pop, too, scoring at a very healthy 43 points per game clip across the past three behind his own collection of portal adds including UCF transfer QB Tayven Jackson (already almost 1,200 yards passing) and West Virginia transfer RB Jaheim White (7 yards per carry), who motored for almost 1,700 rushing yards across the 2023-24 campaigns for Brown with the Mountaineers before missing almost the entirety of last season for Rich Rodriguez in Morgantown due to an early-September knee injury. Brown’s quick overall reload for the Mean Green brought in 50 new faces from the portal - many from Power 4 programs, like offensive weapons Jackson and White. Ex-SMU LB Zakye Barker (28 tackles already) and ex-Arkansas State LB Aaron Alexander are also making an early impact on the stop end. Meanwhile, though the sample size is small, and the spread minimal this week, note that Tulsa (if it stays favored) hasn’t covered the spread as chalk vs. an FBS foe in three tries since head coach Tre Lamb arrived from East Tennessee State last autumn. Moreover, as American Conference observers don't see much drop-off with Williams on the field, we're hardly sure the Golden Hurricane's chances improve greatly if Hayes is able to make the post on Thursday.
Play North Texas

This will be the first meeting between these regional foes since Virginia Tech's 38-21 home win over the Panthers in September 2023. For what it's worth, now-Virginia Tech head coach James Franklin went 3-1 against Pitt when he coached in Happy Valley, winning the last three meetings by an average of 23.7 points per game. The Hokies were forced to battle both Boston College and Mother Nature last week. Virginia Tech eventually earned a 21-14 win, but never came close to covering the lofty two-touchdown spread against the feisty Eagles. We've seen quite the change in scoring in Pitt's games through the first month of the season. The over went 9-3 in the Panthers' regular season games last year, but Pitt's defense has allowed an average of 8.5 points per game thus far (3-1 to the under). Lane Stadium will be rockin' for this one and our power ratings are in line with where this game has opened, but we're inclined to take the points with Pitt. Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi can't be compared to Lane Kiffin when it comes to troll antics, but Narduzzi loves to push a button or two when given the opportunity. Pitt essentially had an extra week to prep for this one after beating FCS-level Bucknell 59-0 last week. Narduzzi will have something up his sleeve in this one. It appears that Hokies' QB Ethan Grunkemeyer made a good decision following Coach Franklin to Blacksburg, but let's not forget that this is a guy who entered his senior year of high school with one scholarship offer (Miami-Ohio) and was Penn State's third-string quarterback behind Drew Allar and Beau Pribula. Again, he's performed great in maroon-and-orange thus far, but we're not too far removed from Grunkemeyer throwing for 93 yards with two interceptions against Iowa or getting sacked four times against Ohio State.
Play Pitt

Liberty earned a 59-30 home win as a 3.5-point favorite last season. Flames' running back Evan Dickens ran for 217 yards and four touchdowns on 22 attempts, while QB Ethan Vasko went 14-of-20 through the air for 221 yards and two touchdowns. After dropping the season opener at James Madison, Liberty has won its last three games. The Flames and Blue Hens share a common opponent as both teams faced (and beat) Coastal Carolina over the last two weeks. Delaware limps into this one after suffering a blow-out loss to Virginia last week. Blue Hens' QB Nick Minicucci suffered a leg injury and he is listed as doubtful on the early-week report. Minicucci threw for nearly 3,700 yards last season with 23 touchdown passes, so if he is unable to go, that will be a big loss for Delaware's offense. We're seeing some "buy" signals on Liberty at the moment, as the Flames are gaining bettors' trust slowly-but-surely with each passing week. We mentioned it last week, but it's worth repeating as time continues to pass and more results hold true. Liberty's 20-13 road loss at James Madison continues to age well when you consider the Dukes have won their last three games by a combined margin of 159-36. Since that narrow win over Liberty, JMU has covered the spread over the last three games by 38, 15.5 and 19.5 points. So yeah, Liberty out-gaining James Madison by 30 yards with a 19-15 edge in first downs looks pretty good in hindsight, despite the early-season loss.
Play Liberty

This will be the first game at Northwestern's revamped Ryan Field, which cost roughly $850 million and will feature just 35,000 seats in an effort to keep the crowd in purple, and not attract TOO many visitors from rival schools. Northwestern earned a 22-21 road win at Beaver Stadium as a three-touchdown 'dog last season. The Wildcats held the ball for nearly 35 minutes and enjoyed a 23-13 advantage in first downs. Prior to that upset, the Nittany Lions had won the previous three meetings by an average of 20.7 points per game. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses last week. Penn State blew a 17-0 lead at home against Wisconsin, while Northwestern had a shot to upset the defending national champs but fell just short in the final minutes. For the Nittany Lions, the coaching staff has changed but the issue remains the same. During the first half of James Franklin's tenure in Happy Valley, Penn State sent wide receivers Chris Godwin, DaeSean Hamilton, KJ Hamler and Jahan Dotson to the NFL - All of whom were drafted within the first four rounds. Since Dotson was selected by the Commanders with the 16th pick in the 2022 draft, the Nittany Lions have sent ONE wide receiver to the NFL: Parker Washington in the sixth round (ended up being a great selection by Jacksonville). Penn State could not attract any notable receiving talent during Franklin's final four seasons, and it doesn't appear that Matt Campbell did any better. The under is 3-1 in Penn State's games this season, and without Koby Howard at receiver for the Nittany Lions, Campbell will likely have to revert to his Iowa State roots with some ugly, defense-first football. Last week's contest against Wisconsin saw a total of 44 points, but two of those touchdowns came directly off turnovers. As long as this game stays with a traditional script, we'd be surprised if this turned into a shootout.
Play the Under

Syracuse has won each of the last six meetings, but UConn has stayed within the number each of the last two years. The Orange earned a 27-20 win in overtime last season after the Huskies blew a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. Syracuse is coming off a much-needed bye after dropping back-to-back games against Cal and Pitt. The Orange averaged 12.0 penalties and 109.7 penalty yards per game through their first three games, which both ranked as the worst marks in the country. UConn returns home after splitting back-to-back road games at Southern Miss (win) and Miami-Ohio (loss). Syracuse has been such a tough team to trust this season because of the penalty issues, but after a week to figure stuff out, we can only look toward the Orange. Against Cal, Syracuse held a 437-249 edge in total yards with a 27-17 advantage in first downs but they turned the ball over three times. Against Pitt, they were almost dead-even in yards (368-347) and first downs (23-22), but Syracuse couldn't overcome ten penalties for 94 yards. The Orange are capable of playing some quality football if they can get out of their own way.
Play Syracuse

Toledo has won each of the last four meetings in this MAC series, including a 38-9 home win over the Cardinals last season. Yardage in that contest was fairly close (404-335) and they finished with the same number of first downs (19-19), but Ball State was unable to overcome three turnovers. The over is 4-0 in Toledo's games this season and the over is 3-1 in Ball State's contests. This is a big number for Toledo to lay on the road, and to be honest, we have some interest in the Cardinals. But we'll look to ride the over train a little bit longer, considering the Rockets are generating an average of 7.12 yards per play so far this year and Ball State has already allowed 50+ points on two occasions in September. Also, Toledo scoring 20 points at Michigan State in Week 1 is aging pretty well as the Spartans' defense has been stingy under Pat Fitzgerald.
Play the Over

This is the first meeting between the Owls and Bulls since South Florida earned a 27-23 home win in November 2023. Temple is a half-point away from being 4-0 against the spread this season. After getting bettors to the window against Rhode Island, Penn State and Toledo, the Owls lost by four as a 3.5-point 'dog last week against Army. Penn State transfer Jaxon Smolik has returned to practice after missing the last two games with a foot injury, but Ajani Sheppard took the majority of practice reps with the first-team offense and it appears that Sheppard will likely remain the starter for this week's clash with the Bulls. South Florida is 4-0 in Brian Hartline's debut season, but the Bulls were dreadful last week at Bowling Green. Because of Hartline's connections to Ohio, we expected South Florida to put a strong performance together against a MAC bottom-dweller. That certainly wasn't the case as the Bulls didn't find the scoreboard until 48 minutes surpassed. QB Michael Van Buren Jr. went 7-of-11 through the air for 78 passing yards, and he produced a total of 12 rushing yards on 13 carries. Against a schedule that's featured Florida International, Army, Delaware State and Bowling Green, there simply haven't been many "buy" signs on the Bulls' offense thus far.
Play Temple

Miami is 5-1 straight-up and against the spread in the last six meetings in this MAC series, but the RedHawks and Falcons did not play last season. Bowling Green put together its best effort of the season last week against South Florida, but the Falcons are still searching for their first win. After a heartbreaking loss to Cincinnati two weeks ago, Miami responded nicely with a 24-21 home win over UConn last week. RedHawks' starting QB David McComb is doubtful after suffering a leg injury last week against UConn. McComb threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns against the Huskies before being relieved by Caleb Heavner in the final minutes. We need a couple more data points from Bowling Green and South Florida to determine exactly what happened last week, but we're inclined to buy into some improvement from the Falcons on defense. If you can hold an American Conference team to 240 total yards and 16 first downs on 4.5 yards per play, then you can probably handle a MAC offense with a back-up quarterback. Let's see if Eddie George can get back-to-back efforts out of that unit as Bowling Green heads into conference play.
Play the Under

After a five-year hiatus in this ACC series, Virginia earned a 46-38 win in overtime against the Seminoles last season. Florida State out-gained the Cavaliers by 74 yards but failed to capitalize on three Virginia turnovers. The Cavaliers earned a 42-3 home win over Delaware last week, but that contest lost some of its luster after Blue Hens' QB Nick Minicucci went down with an early injury. Florida State got back in the win column with a 34-7 victory over FCS-level Central Arkansas last week. The final score looks fine, but when you commit ten penalties for 115 yards against an FCS team at home and you allow them to hold the ball for over 39 minutes with 22 first downs, you're not going to calm the nerves in Tallahassee. Florida State's defense allowed Alabama to generate 567 total yards on 8.6 yards per play. Virginia's offense isn't going to be confused with the Greatest Show on Turf anytime soon, but Beau Pribula and Co. are certainly capable of putting points on the board. Virginia generated 556 total yards and 34 first downs against Delaware last week. The Cavaliers are scoring over 40 points per game against a schedule that includes one ACC team, one Big XII team and a bowl rep from Conference-USA. We trust the Cavs to carry their share of the weight on this total.
Play the Over

Georgia is 6-0 straight-up, 5-1 against the spread in this SEC series since 2017, but the 'Dawgs and the 'Dores have not met since 2023. Vanderbilt suffered its first loss of the season at Auburn last week, but the Commodores stayed within the number thanks to a strong defensive effort. Vandy is 9-1 against the spread in its last ten SEC road games. Georgia has out-scored its first two conference opponents by a combined margin of 86-30. The 'Dawgs jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the first half against Oklahoma last week and put things on cruise control after that. We don't LOVE the idea of backing a true freshman on the road at Georgia, but after the last two weeks, Jared Curtis has seen it all. In his first career start, his Commodores pulled off arguably the most-improbable comeback in recent memory. His second start was at Jordan-Hare Stadium where he went 22-of-33 and led the team in rushing. So he's already seen and experienced plenty during his brief college career to help prepare him for this challenge. Vanderbilt used an average of 29.4 seconds between plays last season, with only a handful of teams like Iowa, Army and Navy playing at a slower pace. Don't forget, that was with a 23-year-old Heisman finalist at quarterback. With a true freshman at the helm, we expect Clark Lea to slow this one down in an effort to drag Georgia into the mud. The Bulldogs are the top team in our power ratings at the moment, but we still struggle to justify a point spread this high against an opponent that knows how to make a game ugly.
Play Vanderbilt

Ohio has covered the number in each of the last four meetings, but the Bobcats and Flashes did not play last season. Ohio is hopeful to get starting QB Nick Poulos back this week after missing the last two contests. Kent State opened MAC play with a nice home win over Ball State last week. Returning QB Dru DeShields played a clean game with three touchdowns and no turnovers, but the biggest story was Kent State's defense which held the Cardinals to 46 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Keep an eye on the status of Polous, but if he's good-to-go, we have this game lined closer to a touchdown in Ohio's favor. Kent State has certainly shown improvement over the last two seasons under Mark Carney, but historically speaking, there is still a decent-sized gap between these two programs. Talent ratings are certainly not a bible, but even with last year's improvement under Carney, the Flashes still attracted the second-worst class of incoming talent according to 247Sports' composite ratings. Until the Flashes show us otherwise, we believe there is larger than a three-point gap between these programs.
Play Ohio

South Carolina has won-and-covered each of the last four meetings, including a 35-13 home win over the Wildcats last season. That final score crept over the closing total (47.5) by a half-point, which broke a string of four-straight unders between the Gamecocks and Wildcats. Kentucky held a 10-7 lead at the end of the first quarter before South Carolina generated back-to-back defensive touchdowns in the span of 45 seconds. Shane Beamer could certainly use a bounce-back performance after his squad was thrashed by Mississippi State and Alabama over the last two weeks. Gamecocks' star defensive end Dylan Stewart has been suspended indefinitely after some unusual outbursts in Saturday's loss at Alabama. Stewart was seen punching a Crimson Tide offensive lineman late in the game, and that came after a brief altercation with the South Carolina coaching staff regarding his substitutions and playing time. Frankly, we're not sure what to expect in this one. Kentucky is likely going to be a popular underdog pick this week, but that upset win at Texas A&M lost a little bit of luster after the Aggies got crushed by LSU last week. Perhaps losing Stewart will light a jolt under the rest of the South Carolina roster because it certainly didn't appear that he was contributing much from a positive attitude standpoint. We were on the over in South Carolina's game against Alabama last week, and we're fine with going right back to the same well. Ignoring each team's game against FCS-level competition, the over has gone a combined 6-0 against FBS foes. The Gamecocks' defense allowed Tide QB Keelon Russell to go 21-of-27 for 365 yards with four touchdowns last week. Kentucky QB Kenny Minchey could be poised for a nice break-out performance in this one.
Play the Over