Analysis

Carolina upset Green Bay as a 13.5-point road 'dog last November. The Packers out-gained the Panthers by 104 yards in that contest but didn't find the end zone until there were three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Three of the last four meetings between the Panthers and Packers have stayed under the total. Carolina is licking its wounds after suffering a 43-13 home loss to the Bucs. The Panthers' offense was held to 266 total yards and 15 first downs while turning the ball over six times (two interceptions, two fumbles and 0-for-2 on fourth down). Bryce Young had his worst game of the season, suffering five sacks while generating just 6.0 yards per pass attempt. Offensive tackle Taylor Moton suffered a fractured leg in last week's loss to Tampa Bay and he will be placed on IR. Green Bay is coming off a three-point road loss in Detroit last week. Running back Josh Jacobs found the end zone in his season debut against the Lions, but the Packers continue to be dealt injuries on the offensive line. At one point last week, the Packers were down to their third-string center. Sean Rhyan and Jacob Monk were both knocked out of last week's contest, forcing Green Bay to play another round of O-line roulette. Dating back to last season, the under is 8-1 in the Panthers' last nine road games and that is the direction we're going to look in this one. Both teams are dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Young has certainly turned a corner this season, but the Panthers' offense still has some notable home-road splits. Each team has a short week, so realistically, it is going to be tough to add wrinkles into your offensive gameplan (especially with offensive line injuries). Both teams played at a below-average pace last season, and the Packers have typically played very slow under Matt LaFleur. Once Green Bay took those deep passing shots against Chicago with great success in Week 5, the Packers' last two opponents have been very well-prepared to defend what Jordan Love is looking for. Also, Green Bay has some big concerns in the field goal department after Trey Smack went 1-for-3 in a dome last week.
Play the Under

Minnesota upset Detroit twice last season as an underdog of 7.5 and 9.5 points. Prior to that, the Lions had won-and-covered each of the previous five contests. The Vikings are still unbeaten after beating the Colts 16-10 last week. While the wins are certainly welcomed, even the most-purple of fans in Minneapolis would agree that this offense still leaves a lot to be desired. Coming off a bye with extra time to prep, Minnesota was only able to find the end zone one time against one of the league's worst defenses. The Vikings have scored an average of 17.2 points per game over their last five wins. All five of those contests stayed under the total. Early indications suggest that Vikings' running back Aaron Jones escaped serious injury last week against the Colts. It looked like Jones would be out for a while with the way the knee injury first looked, but he's only listed as day-to-day and the Vikings hope to have him back shortly. Detroit came out of its bye week with a three-point home win over the Packers. The Lions held a +1.3 yards per play advantage with nine more first downs than Green Bay, but Detroit struggled to overcome two lost fumbles. Brian Flores has done a fantastic job with the Vikings' defense this season, but we simply haven't seen enough from Minnesota's offense to suggest that they can hang in this contest. The Vikings are still unbeaten with an offense that sits No. 30 in EPA per play, last in offensive success rate, 30th in passing success rate and 27th in rushing success rate against a schedule that includes the Bears' defense, the Dolphins' defense, the Saints' defense and the Colts' defense. Minnesota had scored first in each of its previous four games before Indianapolis grabbed an early lead last week. So the Vikings have been able to play from ahead in four of their six games, allowing Flores to apply pressure with no real fear of trouble. That will likely change on the road against a high-powered opponent that can be explosive through the air and on the ground.
Play Detroit Lions

The Raiders have won four of the last five meetings, with the last one being a 16-12 home win in November 2023. We're not sure the Jets love the idea of being a home favorite at the moment after New York lost at home to the previously-winless Dolphins last week. The Jets lost outright as a 4.5-point home favorite and they were largely out-played by Miami for long stretches of that contest. Geno Smith continues to provide a somewhat-steady hand for the Jets' passing attack, but he is guilty of so many back-breaking plays that take New York out of its rhythm. Smith has thrown an interception in back-to-back weeks and he's been sacked 21 times over the last six games. Top receivers Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell combined for two catches for 26 yards against the Dolphins, forcing Wilson to cause a bit of a scene on the sidelines and in the locker room. It's probably a safe bet that they will be a little more involved in the gameplan this week. This was always going to be a tough stretch on the Raiders' schedule, but the bloom has fallen off the rose a little bit after Las Vegas failed to capitalize on a 3-0 start. Plenty of teams around the league would have gone 0-4 against the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams, but the Raiders could really use this one to avoid a complete tailspin. Las Vegas plays San Francisco, Seattle and Denver after this, so an eight-game losing skid is firmly on the table if the Raiders can't stop the bleeding. Head coach Klint Kubiak said he's not considering a QB switch to Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins has a firm grasp of the job. Some early money has shown on the over in this contest, and we agree with it. Keep an eye on the weather conditions because The Meadowlands in early November can be tricky, but we're expecting to see some points in this contest. Las Vegas has completely abandoned the run, choosing to use Ashton Jeanty as a pass-catching receiver out of the backfield. Jeanty caught all eight of his targets last week against the Rams, producing 61 receiving yards and a touchdown. With Cousins and Smith on opposite sides, a pick-six or a sack-fumble that gets returned for a touchdown is firmly on the table. We've got two aging quarterbacks trying to sling it around for as long as they can, and that usually tends to produce some entertaining (we didn't say "good") football.
Play the Over

The Cardinals are 8-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last nine meetings in this regional NFC matchup. The Cardinals earned a 27-17 road win in Dallas as a 3.5-point road 'dog last season, and they upset the Cowboys as a double-digit 'dog in September 2023. The Cowboys return home for a short week to prep after winning in Philadelphia on Monday night. Dallas was trailing at the end of the third quarter before the Cowboys ended the game on an 18-0 run. Javonte Williams finished with 155 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens combined to catch three touchdowns from Dak Prescott. Since midway through last season, Dallas is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games as a home favorite. The Cowboys lost outright as a 9.5-point favorite against Tampa Bay in Week 5. Arizona's 30-16 loss to Denver last week can be viewed in a number of ways. The obvious first choice is to look at the defense, allowing a not-very-good Broncos offense to generate 30 points on 6.8 yards per play. That's not ideal, but an argument could be made that Arizona played dead-even with Denver for most of that contest. Bo Nix was somehow able to scramble for a 62-yards touchdown run on a play where the Cardinals simply didn't know who had the ball. Take out that one play and Arizona out-played Denver in almost every other area in the box score. The Cardinals certainly have their limitations, but do you trust the Cowboys' defense to cover this spread on a short week? They allowed 21 points and 23 first downs on 5.2 yards per play against a team led by Tanner McKee, Dameon Pierce and Makai Lemon last week. Arizona's recent success in this matchup certainly doesn't hurt, either.
Play Arizona Cardinals

Home field advantage hasn't meant too much in this NFC South matchup over the last three seasons. The road team has won five of the last six meetings, and the lone home win (Atlanta in October 2024) required overtime to get there. We played against Tampa Bay last week, expecting Baker Mayfield to have some limitations following a dislocated thumb suffered three weeks ago. Well, the joke was on us because the Bucs were able to crush the Panthers without needing Mayfield at all. Tampa jumped out to an early 7-0 lead in the first quarter following a Bucky Irving TD run, and the floodgates opened from there. Mayfield finished with seven pass completions and 64 yards. If you would have said that to any bettor before the game, they probably would have assumed that Carolina was the team that won by 30 and not the other way around. Tampa Bay finished with 258 rushing yards and the Bucs got a fumble return for a touchdown from defensive lineman Calijah Kancey as the cherry on top. Atlanta snapped a two-game losing skid with a 29-20 home win over San Francisco that may look a little flattering for the Falcons. The 49ers were -4 in turnover margin, yet that was still a one-score game at the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter before the Falcons got some insurance points. The Falcons' offense was held to 295 total yards on 4.7 yards per play. San Francisco out-gained Atlanta by over 100 yards, had five more first downs and held a +1.5 yards per play differential. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have gone over the total, and that is the direction we're going to look in this one. Even though he looked fine last week, Mayfield should be close to 100-percent this week after he was able to avoid hard contact last week against the Panthers. When these teams met in Tampa Bay last December, this was Atlanta's receiving corps: David Sills V and Darnell Mooney. Those were the only two wide receivers that caught a pass. The Falcons won that game by simply giving the ball to Kyle Pitts (11 touches) and Bijan Robinson (27 touches) as much as possible. Now with Drake London, Jahan Dotson and a better receiving corps, Atlanta has more weapons at its disposal.
Play the Over

Buffalo has won four of the last five meetings, with the last one being a 41-40 thriller in Week 1 last season. The Ravens took a ten-point lead into the fourth quarter, but Buffalo scored three times over the final four minutes to steal the win. The Ravens' offense generated 8.6 yards per play in that contest, but a costly fumble proved to be the ultimate difference. Obviously, the storyline heading into this one is the health of Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson, who continues to find himself in these weird predicaments when it comes to the injury report. It's hard to remember the last time where several notable NFL insiders were all essentially stumped by what was going on in the Ravens' facility last week. Jackson reportedly showed up to the facility with a notable limp and was seen in sweat pants early in the week. Then he was an almost-full participant in practice later in the week, leading most to believe he was fine to play. Then on Saturday the Ravens announced that Jackson wasn't playing against the Bengals last week. No pregame warm-up? Couldn't serve as the emergency back-up in case something happened to Tyler Huntley? Nothin? CBS pushed the issue last week, suggesting that head coach Jesse Minter wasn't thrilled with how that process played out. As we go to print on Tuesday, unfortunately, we're not much closer to a resolution. We'll post an update later this week when Jackson's status hopefully becomes a little more clear, but we have some mild interest in Buffalo. Heck, we'd prefer if Jackson got announced in so that we could get a cheaper price on the Bills. As the attention focuses on Jackson, one storyline has been floating under the radar. He still hasn't practiced or played with new center Cam Jurgens. Tyler Linderbaum was Baltimore's center for nearly 100-percent of Baltimore's snaps from 2022-25. Linderbaum missed two games in four seasons with the Ravens, and he's now in Las Vegas. Jurgens is one of the best centers in the NFL, but you still need to develop a little bit of chemistry between a center and QB, especially a duo that was thrown together unexpectedly in the middle of the season.
Play Buffalo Bills

Jacksonville is 5-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last six meetings, and Indianapolis' lone win (Week 18 of the 2024-25 season) required overtime to get there. Six of the last seven meetings have gone over the total, with the lone "under" being the last meeting in December of last year. Jacksonville is coming off its bye after the two-week trip to London where the Jags beat Philadelphia but lost an AFC South showdown against the Texans. Jacksonville was off last week but was still a winner, considering the other three teams in the division all lost. The Jaguars maintain a 2.5-game lead atop the standings thanks to Houston's loss as a double-digit home favorite against the Giants. In our Eagles-Commanders preview (scroll down a few games), we dive into the NFL trade deadline and what it means for a team like Philadelphia. Indianapolis is likely going to be the other major team to monitor over the next two weeks, because the Colts are about to undergo a complete rebuild. General manager Chris Ballard has already been fired. Head coach Shane Steichen appears headed toward a similar path. Running back Jonathan Taylor and wide receiver Josh Downs are both going to be attractive pieces in the trade market. When you've got a cloud sitting over your head like that, it's not easy for a team to perform. We can excuse Indianapolis for a tough early stretch that included games against the Ravens, Chiefs and Texans, but the Colts' schedule has been very comfortable over the last month. Allowing Pittsburgh to score 34 points hasn't aged well considering the Steelers found the end zone one time against the Saints last week. If you're a Colts player that is battling a nagging injury or two, how hard are you pushing the issue this week knowing that you may be available for a playoff-contending team over the next week? Jacksonville hasn't played a home game in over a month, so the Jaguars should be excited to give the Duval faithful a show.
Play Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five meetings, with the last one being a 37-27 road win in Nashville. Tennessee actually out-gained the Bengals in that contest, but plenty has changed on both sides since then. The Titans have been competitive over the last couple weeks, winning in Indianapolis before falling on a walk-off field goal against the Browns last week. Cincinnati returns home after back-to-back road wins over the Dolphins and Ravens. The Bengals were held scoreless against Baltimore last week and trailed 13-0 at halftime before out-scoring the Ravens 35-0 in the second half. Joe Burrow finished with 292 passing yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. We have some interest in the under in this contest. Assuming this total stays in the 46.5 neighborhood, it will be (by-far) the highest total in a Titans game this season. If you remove the Week 18 game against Jacksonville where there was nothing on the line and a free-for-all on the roster, Tennessee hasn't been involved in a game with a total this high since Week 8 of last season at Indianapolis. Is Cincinnati the right opponent to turn this game into a shootout? We have our doubts. The whole NFL world already knows what Burrow, Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase can do in the passing game, but Cincinnati needs to figure out what's going on in the running game. Over the last three weeks, Chase Brown has produced a total of 88 rushing yards with no touchdowns on 2.67 yards per carry. If you're expecting the Bengals to run up the score like they did last week against the Ravens, Cincinnati showed plenty of mercy against the Dolphins earlier this season. With a comfortable lead at halftime, the Bengals only scored one touchdown in the second half against the Miami. We expect this game to look fairly similar to what we saw last week against the Ravens: A steady dose of Brown to try and get the run game going, then Burrow will be available to bail them out through the air in the second half if the rushing attack isn't working. Ultimately, we expect the final score to land below the oddsmakers’ expectation.
Play the Under

The “Deshaun Watson Redemption Tour” continues in Pittsburgh against a Steelers side that he and the Browns already beat by a 27-24 count in Cleveland back on October 1. That was a hair-raiser, like every one of the Browns’ five wins to date, all recorded by four-point-or-fewer margins. Borrowing a page from the Kentucky Wildcats, the Brownies also now have back-to-back last-play wins, with their victories not courtesy of two-point conversions in OT but rather last-play field goals by the new Mr. Clutch in Cleveland, PK Andre Szmyt. Meanwhile, Watson’s 306 passing yards last week vs. the Titans were his most since the final game of the 2020 Covid season, also against Tennessee. Still, borrowing a page from the Perils of Pauline is a risky way to go every week, and the opposing Steelers (who were resplendent in their black pants with white jerseys last Sunday in Paris vs. the Saints) seem to have rediscovered some of the old magic that HC Mike McCarthy had once upon a time with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Though the new version of their partnership is leaning more on a rejuvenated infantry featuring Jaylen Warren, whose four games of 125+ scrimmage yards ties KC’s Kenenth Walker II for most in the NFL Along with ex-Cowboy and Panther Rico Dowdle adding a thunder component to Warren’s lightning, the Steelers have lessened the load on 42-year-old Rodgers, while Patrick Graham’s defense continues to make proper adjustments after holding New Orleans to just 18 rush yards in the win at Stade de France on Sunday. True, Rodgers isn’t generating many big downfield throws lately, though DK Metcalf reminded of what he could do with a 51-yard catch against the Saints, and he did pass for a season-high 299 yards and three TDs in the earlier meeting aside Lake Erie. It’s the Pittsburgh win formula that seems slightly more sustainable, and the Steelers have also extended a few margins past three points, an important consideration against the low-variance Browns. Though it's the series trends--home sides have won and covered the last ten meetings--that might be the biggest endorsement for Pittsburgh with the AFC North lead at stake.
Play Pittsburgh Steelers

The Chargers have tried everything else this season, so maybe a bye week will work? Nothing else seems to have gone right for the Bolts, as Jim Harbaugh went thru the off week paying only lip service to improving the offense and instead holding off any structural changes that most suggest must include doing something with out-of-depth OC and play-caller Mike McDaniel, either being shorn of one or both roles before the confidence of franchise cornerstone and QB Justin Herbert is completely shot and his career perhaps permanently thrown off course. Potentially risking the sacrifice of your franchise QB to stick with a plan that isn’t working has many baffled at Harbaugh’s lack of action, with nightmarish numbers including Herbert’s league-worst eight interceptions and lowest QBR (29.9), not to mention an offense sputtering at a mere 15 points per game, the worst for the Chargers since a dreadful 1975 under Tommy Prothro when Dan Fouts, Jesse Freitas, and Bobby Douglass piloted an attack that scored only 13.5 points per game. Moreover, the winless Bolts don’t have a spread cover, either, the best they could do being a push at Seattle a few weeks ago. By comparison, any problems the Rams had seem almost minor, and last week’s 35-21 win in Vegas over the Raiders was the best effort since a Week 2 win over the Giants. Sean McVay seems to have devised a plan to compensate for the absence of Davante Adams, as Matthew Stafford now has an overload of tight end targets (Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen), and Puka Nacua’s return to active duty somewhat minimizes the absence of Adams. The bottom line, however, is that we’d simply rather not back the Bolts until further notice. The under has cashed in 11 of the Chargers' last 12 games, and any notable improvement following the bye week is likely to be felt on the defensive end.
Play the Under