Analysis

Western Kentucky captured last year's contest with a 27-24 road victory in Newark. The Blue Hens out-gained the Hilltoppers by 97 yards in that contest and held a 27-16 advantage in first downs, but the game swung on an interception returned for a touchdown in the third quarter as WKU scored three times in less than eight minutes. The 'Toppers are coming off a much-needed bye week. Western Kentucky played five road games in the first seven weeks with trips to Nevada, Georgia, Indiana, New Mexico and Texas. The Hilltoppers won-and-covered their two Conference-USA games against Missouri State and Sam Houston to stay in the mix. Liberty appears to be the class of the league thus far, but WKU will have their shot against the Flames in late-November. The Hilltoppers' last four games against FBS-level competition have all stayed under the total. Delaware QB Nick Minicucci returned to the Blue Hens' lineup in last week's 61-38 home win over Missouri State, and Delaware looked like a completely different team compared to the one that played without him over the prior three weeks (0-3 straight-up and against the spread). Minicucci scored six touchdowns (five passing and one rushing) last week against the Bears. We gave Delaware a strong adjustment for the return of Minicucci, and even with that, we still have Western Kentucky favored in this matchup. Delaware is 2-7 against the spread on the road since joining the FBS ranks at the beginning of last season. Minicucci gives them a spark on offense, but this is still a program that needs to learn how to win/cover on the road before they should be favored against a team that was widely viewed to be a contender in the league when the season started.
Play Western Kentucky

This will be the first meeting at the FBS level between the Bears and Bearkats. Missouri State had an extra day to prep for this one after falling at Delaware last Tuesday. We're willing to give the Bears a small pass in that 61-38 loss (we said a small pass) because the Blue Hens did a very nice job concealing the status of their QB rotation. Normal-starter Nick Minicucci had missed the previous three games with a knee injury and head coach Ryan Carty did not leave many hints that Minicucci was going to be cleared last week. He was certainly much healthier than led to believe as Delaware scored 61 points and didn't have to punt in last week's win over the Bears. For what it's worth, that was a tie game midway through the third quarter before the flood gates opened in Delaware's favor. Missouri State QB Henry Belin IV went 26-of-35 for 337 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Bears' offense generated 7.4 yards per play, but three turnovers and 12 penalties for 100 yards became a little too much to overcome. Unfortunately, we don't have one of those passes handy for Sam Houston at the moment. The Bearkats are 0-4 straight-up and against the spread over their last four contests. Remember, Sam Houston was nearly leading Texas Tech at halftime at the end of September but QB Landyn Locke threw a pair of pick-sixes. In the 14 quarters since then, Sam Houston has been out-scored by a combined margin of 109-30. In our opinion, this is another nice buy-low spot on the Bearkats' total train. Belin IV wasn't Missouri State's opening day starter, but he's thrown for 300+ yards in back-to-back games. The Bears' offense has a lot more bite with him at the helm.
Play the Over

The home team has won-and-covered each of the first two meetings since Kennesaw joined Conference-USA. Middle Tennessee earned a 14-5 home win in October 2024, and the Owls returned the favor with an eight-point home win last season. Middle Tennessee out-gained Kennesaw by 126 yards and held a 24-17 advantage in first downs, but couldn't dig out of a 21-3 hole that was created in the first quarter. The Blue Raiders had two extra days to prep for this one after beating Florida International last Tuesday. MTSU is still in the Conference-USA mix after back-to-back upset wins over Delaware and FIU. Terrence Brown Jr. ran for 158 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries in last week's win over the Panthers. The Blue Raiders' last three games have all gone over the total. Kennesaw is still searching for its first win over an FBS-level opponent. After beating West Georgia in the opener, the Owls have dropped their last six games with a handful of them coming in late, heartbreaking fashion. Last week's loss to Liberty, however, was not one of them. The Flames out-gained the Owls by over 100 yards with a +2.1 yards per play differential. That game was played last Thursday, so as we mentioned, Middle Tennessee has a two-day rest advantage heading into this one. There are spots to back Middle Tennessee, but home favorite isn't one of them. The Blue Raiders haven't closed as a home favorite against an FBS-level opponent since beating 2-10 Sam Houston last season. Kennesaw lost three coinflips against Arkansas State, Jacksonville State and Missouri State. At some point, one of these is going to turn in the Owls' favor.
Play Kennesaw State

The home team has won-and-covered each of the first two meetings since Jacksonville State made the jump to join Conference-USA with New Mexico State, but the Aggies and Gamecocks did not meet last season. Jacksonville State is coming off its bye week, and it probably came at a good time for the Gamecocks after a series of nailbiters. The Gamecocks are 4-1 straight-up, 3-2 against the spread over their last five games, but the average margin in those contests was 4.0 points per game. During that stretch, Jacksonville State was involved in a one-point win, a two-point loss, a three-point win and a four-point win. Five of the Gamecocks' last six games have gone over the total. New Mexico State returns home after splitting a pair of road games at Florida International (loss) and Sam Houston (win). Because of such low margins of victory in Jacksonville State games, we're a little gunshy to pull the trigger, but we can only look in the Gamecocks' direction. New Mexico State caught a handful of teams in ideal situations over the first few weeks of the season. The Aggies played Florida State in Week 0 when the Seminoles clearly weren't fully-organized. They were the fourth road game in five weeks on Western Kentucky's schedule when the Hilltoppers had nothing in the tank. That Week 2 loss at Hawaii hasn't aged very well considering the Warriors have been dreadful this season. Jacksonville State's style of play doesn't typically generate high-scoring wins, but we're not seeing much on New Mexico State's profile to suggest the Aggies can pull the upset. We have this game lined closer to a touchdown.
Play Jacksonville State

These teams have only met once in the regular season since James Madison joined the Sun Belt (2023), but the Dukes took down Troy in last year's conference championship game. Troy easily stayed within the number as a 24.5-point 'dog, and that was only a 17-14 game with five minutes remaining before the Dukes scored a pair of late touchdowns to make the 31-14 final score look a lot more appealing. Nonetheless, JMU's defense still held Troy to 177 total yards on 2.6 yards per play in that contest. Both teams are coming off losses last week. James Madison has a couple extra days to rest and prep for this one after losing their first game of the season at App State last Thursday. The Dukes scored on their first drive of the game and they held a lead for most of the first three quarters before the Mountaineers turned things around in the fourth quarter. JC Evans and Camden Coleman split time at quarterback and both enjoyed success through the air, but the Dukes couldn't get anything going on the ground. A big reason for that was an injury suffered by running back George Pettaway, and he is not expected to return for this one. Troy is looking to snap its two-game losing skid, and the Trojans have left fans wondering who this team is over the last three weeks. Troy scored 55 points with over 650 total yards at home against Southern Miss. In the two games since that win, the Trojans produced a total of 20 points and 467 yards against Louisiana and UL-Monroe. Goose Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease split time at quarterback against the WarHawks, combining to go 9-of-18 through the air for 47 passing yards against one of the worst teams in the country. With Pettaway likely out of the lineup and Troy unable to move the ball the last two weeks, we can only look toward the under. The last two meetings between these teams saw 45 and 30 points, and like we mentioned, JMU needed two late touchdowns to simply reach those numbers. Any reason to believe this contest turns into a high-scoring affair? Troy scored 17 points against Missouri, ten points against Utah State and six points against Louisiana. That's not going to be enough to push this final score over the total.
Play the Under

North Texas has won each of the last three meetings, but the Mean Green and Owls did not play last season. The winning team has scored 40+ points in each of the last five meetings (4-1 to the over). The defensive backs on both sides wouldn't mind some work this week because both teams are coming off wins over triple-option rushing attacks. North Texas escaped Annapolis with a 49-39 win over Navy. The Mean Green are 4-0 straight-up, 3-1 against the spread since losing at Texas State in mid-September. North Texas' last five games have all gone over the total. Florida Atlantic got back in the win column with a 51-49 home win over Rice, but it certainly wasn't pretty. Over the last two weeks against Army and Rice, the Owls have allowed a total of 105 points and 978 rushing yards. Florida Atlantic gets a SMALL pass for last week after Rice made a late QB switch from Jacurri Brown to Gael Ochoa. Rice fans are now wondering why that move wasn't made sooner because Ochoa produced 259 rushing yards and four touchdowns on just 12 carries against FAU's defense. So Florida Atlantic probably didn't have a great scouting report on Ochoa, but other than that, the Owls' defensive performance over the last few weeks leaves a lot to be desired. With all of that said, we still have some mild interest in the Owls at this near-two-touchdown spread. Zach Kittley and the FAU coaching staff clearly have some things to work on as it pertains to defending the triple-option, but how much can you realistically take from some of those results? For all intents and purposes, there are five teams in the country that run the triple option and FAU had to play three of them within a six-week span. If the wheels come off once again, then we'll be forced to give the Owls a stiff downgrade. But they deserve a clean shot against a program that was viewed to be on the same level as them heading into the season. Heck, Florida Atlantic had a higher regular season win total than North Texas at DraftKings entering the year. Neal Brown has done a great job in Denton thus far, but the talent gap between these two teams shouldn't be two touchdowns.
Play Florida Atlantic

Tulane has won each of the last two meetings by a combined margin of 61-3. The 49ers failed to hit the 200-yard mark in either of those contests, including just 140 total yards in last year's 27-0 loss in New Orleans. Charlotte is coming off a bye after previously earning its first win of the season against Temple. The 49ers snapped their 16-game losing streak against FBS-level competition with a 38-31 win over the Owls in Philadelphia as a 17.5-point 'dog. There was nothing fluke-y about that result. QB Conner Harrell went 23-of-31 through the air with 281 passing yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Running back Henry Rutledge ran for 123 yards on 17 carries. Four different receivers finished with 50+ yards, led by Derrick Eley's six catches for 96 yards. Tulane is licking its wounds after getting crushed at home by UTSA on Saturday. The 42 points that UTSA scored is the most the Green Wave have allowed since....UTSA scored 48 against them last year. So Tulane is happy to be done with the RoadRunners for a while. The Green Wave turned the ball over six times last week - Four lost fumbles and two interceptions by QB Trace Johnson. Charlotte is going to need to put a couple more performances together before we can trust the 49ers. It's been almost two full calendar years since Charlotte won back-to-back games, so you'll have to forgive us if we're not ready to jump on the Niners' bandwagon just yet. Tulane has clearly taken a step back from previous editions of The Green Wave, but this is an opponent that Tulane should handle with relative ease.
Play Tulane

Baylor has won-and-covered each of the two meetings since the Knights joined the Big XII. The Bears earned a 30-3 home win as a 2.5-point favorite last season, out-gaining UCF by nearly 200 yards in a dominant effort. Vibes couldn't be any more different between these teams at the moment, as UCF is coming off a signature top-10 upset while Baylor fired its coach last week. Dave Aranda failed to make it through his seventh season in Waco as the Bears will turn to first-year defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman as the interim head coach. Klanderman has never served as a head coach before, but he brings a strong pedigree to the position after plenty of time spent at Kansas State and North Dakota State under Chris Klieman. The Bears are looking to snap a two-game losing skid after dropping back-to-back games against TCU and Kansas. On the UCF side, the Knights are looking to avoid a letdown spot after last week's overtime win over BYU. The Bounce House showed why it's one of the best atmospheres in college football, helping UCF past former-No. 2 BYU last week. All indications suggest that former-starter Alonza Barnett has been cleared to return from a hamstring injury that kept him out for several weeks, but UCF head coach Scott Frost said that the Knights are going to stick with Keyone Jenkins at quarterback for the foreseeable future. Dating back to the end of last season, the under is 7-2 in Baylor's last nine games and that is the direction we'd prefer to look in this one. Klanderman comes from the defensive side of the ball, so there should be no changes for Baylor in that department. Say what you want about Aranda, but the Bears' defense held Auburn, Louisiana Tech, Colorado, Arizona State and TCU below 20 points. That side of the ball hasn't really been the problem in 2026.
Play the Under

Kent State broke its three-game losing skid with a 35-20 home win over Akron last week. The Zips out-gained the Flashes by 46 yards and held a 26-21 advantage in first downs, but Kent State played the much-cleaner game. The Flashes finished +1 in turnover margin, only committed three penalties in the game and QB Dru DeShields was not sacked. Sacramento State is 0-7 straight-up, 1-6 against the spread against FBS-level competition this season. The Hornets' only point spread cover came against North Dakota State in a game that the Bison led 28-0 after 19 minutes then essentially stopped playing after that. Sacramento State was held to 17 points, 266 total yards and 16 first downs on 4.6 yards per play last week against Ball State, who probably has a bottom-15 defense in the country. We have some mild interest in Kent State's team total, which has opened at 28.5 (-110) at DraftKings on Tuesday. Sacramento State's last six opponents have scored an average of 39.2 points per game against the Hornets and all six of those teams cleared this 28.5-point mark (with relative ease). The Flashes' offense was overwhelmed by superior competition like South Carolina, Ohio State and South Florida, but DeShields is capable of lighting up the scoreboard against comparable competition. Kent State scored 42 points against both Akron and UMass last season, then 35 at Northern Illinois. Between last week against the Zips and this week against the Hornets, Kent State can't ask for a better opportunity to stretch its legs and have some fun.
Play Kent State Team Total Over 28.5

This is the first meeting between Memphis and Army since the Knights joined The American Conference. Army and Memphis have not shared the field since the Tigers swept a four-game series from 1999-2002. It certainly hasn't been pretty at times, but Army has quietly climbed to 4-1 in conference play, and for all intents and purposes, the winner of this game will likely be sitting in third place in the league behind unbeaten UTSA and North Texas. The Knights have earned three-straight wins over Tulane, Florida Atlantic and Tulsa. While Memphis doesn't have recent experience against Army, the Tigers do have recent experience against Navy and those results haven't been pretty. Memphis has lost as a favorite against the Midshipmen each of the last two seasons, including a 12-point loss as a 9.5-point favorite in 2024. Can a new coaching staff change that fortune? We have our concerns. The Tigers' defense allowed Boise State to rush for 357 yards in Memphis' marquee non-conference game against the Broncos in Week 2. Memphis went to overtime as a 10.5-point home favorite against East Carolina last week, which is not what you want to deal with before trying to prepare for a military academy. That game against the Pirates featured 157 total plays between the teams. Also, the Tigers' bye was in mid-September so Memphis hasn't had a week off to help with prep for this matchup. We still have doubts that Army can be a legit contender in The American Conference, but we can only look in the Knights' direction on Saturday.
Play Army

Marshall has won each of the last eight meetings in this Sun Belt matchup, including a 48-24 outright upset last year as a 14.5-point 'dog. Each of the last three meetings have flown over the total as those contests have seen an average of 75.0 points per game. Marshall is coming off a kinda-sorta bye after beating South Alabama last Tuesday. That was a fantastic defensive effort from The Herd considering the Jaguars scored 50+ points in each of their previous two games. The wheels have fallen off the Monarchs' train in recent weeks as Old Dominion is 1-6 straight-up and against the spread against FBS-level competition this season. ODU is coming off a 26-0 shut-out loss at Louisiana Tech last week. The Monarchs have tried a handful of quarterbacks this season, and Jaxon Potter got the nod last week. Potter went 18-of-34 for 154 yards with one interception last week against the Bulldogs. Our power ratings are in line with where this game has opened, but we can only look in Marshall's direction. The Herd have some Jekyll and Hyde tendencies (i.e. only beating Gardner-Webb as a 24.5-point favorite), but we need to see any signs of life from the Monarchs before we can feel comfortable with a wager on Old Dominion.
Play Marshall

NC State fired longtime head coach Dave Doeren after last week's loss in Stanford. After 14 seasons in Raleigh, Doeren was one of the longest-tenured Power 4 coaches in the country at one school. The Wolfpack roster apparently didn't take the news very well and there were some emotional reactions. Starting QB CJ Bailey said, "It was kind of a shocker to me, thinking that it wouldn't happen during the season. It was like unbelievable to me." NC State doesn't feel like the kind of team that's going to see a positive bounce after having its coach dismissed. Heck, we'd argue that Doeren actually deserves some kudos for keeping the team together after the shocking collapse against Vanderbilt in Week 3. Plenty of other teams would have folded after that, but the Wolfpack went out and beat App State and Louisville over the next two weeks. There are already rumors swirling about players that may be looking to preserve their health for future opportunities. The NC State marketing and social media departments didn't do the team many favors this week, curiously electing to put the back-up QB (Will Wilson, who's completed 12 passes in two seasons with the Wolfpack) on the cover of this week's digital program. You don't see that very often. A completely-innocent gesture that the internet is overreacting to? Perhaps. Or perhaps it's a signal of, "We're not completely sure who's actually going to be playing this week so let's pick someone safe on the roster." Things went off the rails in a hurry last week at SMU, but Cal led the Mustangs at halftime before getting out-scored 42-0 in the second half. In a game where the effort level of both teams is going to be questioned, we'll take the seven-point head start.
Play Cal

Utah earned a 45-14 home win over Cincinnati last season, even though the Utes only out-gained the Bearcats by 53 yards. Utah was the beneficiary of three Cincinnati turnovers and the Utes returned a punt 75 yards for a touchdown in that contest. The Bearcats finished that game with less than 20 minutes of possession. Both teams are coming off wins last week. Utah's unbeaten season remains intact after the Utes beat Houston at home. Cincinnati earned a much-needed signature win as the Bearcats beat Texas Tech as a 10.5-point home 'dog. Five of Cincinnati's last six games have gone over the total, but we're viewing this as a "sell high" spot in the totals market. Utah entered this season with the benefit of unfamiliarity on its side with a new coaching staff, including former Utah State offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven. The Utes' offense looked like gangbusters at the beginning of the year, scoring 66 points against Idaho and 43 points against Arkansas. But now there is plenty of tape on McGiven's offense and how the Utes are using Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin, and opponents are beginning to catch up. Houston intercepted Dampier twice last week as the Utes struggled to find success in the passing game. Even Big XII-worst Colorado had success defending Utah the week prior, holding the Utes to 3.36 yards per carry. Also, as we mentioned in the BYU-Arizona State preview, Utah has the Holy War against the Cougars next week. First-time head coach Morgan Scalley will likely have his hands full, keeping his team focused on the task at hand this week. Our primary play is going to be on the under in this contest, but we certainly wouldn't be shocked if Cincinnati pulled off the outright upset.
Play the Under