Analysis

The road team has won-and-covered each of the last three meetings in this cross-conference matchup, with the last one being New England's 19-3 road win in Chicago in November 2024. Both coaching staffs have changed since that contest, but it did feature the same QB matchup with Chicago's Caleb Williams hosting New England's Drake Maye. Williams returned to the Bears' lineup last week in Atlanta after missing the previous three games. Chicago's 31-23 road win broke a string of four-straight "under" results in Bears games. Chicago led 31-7 at the beginning of the fourth quarter before the Falcons made a late charge in the final minutes. Williams finished 30-of-36 for 305 yards, electing to stay in the pocket as he recovers from a hamstring injury. Tight end Colston Loveland had his best game of the young season, breaking a seven-game stretch where he failed to find the end zone. The Patriots bring a three-game winning streak to The Windy City after handling business against the Jets last week. All three of those games also went over the total. Maye's turnover issues have largely settled since an early-season barrage of giveaways, but the Patriots as a whole continue to struggle with fumbles. New England lost two more fumbles against New York last week, and third-string running back Corey Kiner has now produced back-to-back 50+ yard games on the ground as the Patriots’ coaching staff desperately looks for someone that can hold onto the ball. Kiner, who did fumble the previous week against the Raiders, replaced TreVeyon Henderson in the fourth quarter after Henderson turned the ball over against the Jets. The Patriots did not leave last week's win over the Jets in good health. Offensive linemen Will Campbell, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Ben Brown and Morgan Moses are all dealing with issues. New England also placed wide receiver Romeo Doubs on IR this week with a shoulder injury. Bears' defensive end Montez Sweat will miss this game because of a suspension for PEDs (pending appeal). Chicago is hopeful to get running back Kyle Monangai back this week after he missed the last two games with a thumb injury. While Chicago's defense is unlikely to win many awards this season, the Bears' stop unit has performed better than originally projected. Kyler Gordon made his season debut against the Falcons last week, and he generated three sacks with two forced fumbles. While Maye has certainly looked better in recent weeks, his history of struggling with pressure is well-documented. As the Patriots deal with some offensive line injuries, we're inclined to back Chicago as a short home favorite.
Play Chicago Bears

This will be the first NFL game ever played in France as the Saints and Steelers take the field at Stade de France in Paris. Pittsburgh played at Croke Park in Dublin last year (beat the Vikings), so the Steelers have some recent experience with European travel. New Orleans hasn't played an international game since 2022, so the Saints don't have much familiarity with a trek like this. It's obviously a very small sample size, but the betting market is beginning to pay close attention to the field conditions at some of these locations. London's Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is taking its NFL partnership so seriously that the venue has a plot of turf that only gets used for (American) football games. As a result, games played at Tottenham generally see good footing and a product that mimics what we're used to seeing back home. Over the last four seasons, the eight games played at Tottenham have seen an average of 39.6 points as defenses are able to maintain good footing and make the necessary cuts to keep up with opposing skill position players. Now take a look at some recent international games played outside of Tottenham on fields that perform a little differently than what a traditional NFL venue requires. Dallas and Baltimore combined for 65 points in Brazil earlier this season. Houston and Jacksonville combined for 65 points at Wembley last week, and field conditions were clearly an issue for both defenses. Indianapolis and Atlanta combined for 56 points in Berlin last year. Pittsburgh and Minnesota combined for 45 points in Ireland, but that game should have seen plenty more after the Steelers and Vikings combined to go 4-of-9 in the red zone and Carson Wentz threw two interceptions. Stade de France doesn't have a roof over the playing surface and this will be the first NFL game ever played in the country, so our eyebrow is raised regarding what kind of surface we’re going to see for this one. Neither the Texans nor the Jaguars were able to generate a sack last week at Wembley. If field conditions become a story once again and neither team can generate an effective pass rush, both quarterbacks should enjoy time to operate. The Steelers’ last four games have all gone over the total.
Play the Over

Tampa Bay has won six of the last seven installments of this NFC South series, but Carolina stayed within the number in both contests last year as both games stayed under their respective totals. Baker Mayfield is tentatively scheduled to return to the Bucs' lineup this week after rookie Jalon Daniels provided a steady hand in relief. After beating Dallas the week before, Daniels and the Bucs pushed Pittsburgh to overtime last week before eventually falling. Sitting at 16-3 entering the fourth quarter, it appeared that Tampa Bay was heading toward its fourth-straight "under" result before the scoring gates opened in the final minutes. Mayfield's career has largely been defined by toughness and extending plays when the pocket collapses, but it's fair to question how effective he will be as he returns (early) from a dislocated thumb. Carolina returned from its early-season bye with a 25-14 road win at Philadelphia last week. Bryce Young and the Panthers played a clean game with no turnovers, as it was apparent from the early moments that the Eagles' offense wasn't going to generate much with Tanner McKee at quarterback and the top three running backs all out of the lineup. Although it's going to be tough for him to fully live up to the hype of being a former No. 1 overall pick, Bryce Young continues to show plenty of improvement in Charlotte. Young leads the NFL with 309.8 passing yards per game with an 11:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Panthers' passing offense has jumped from 6.3 yards per attempt last year to 7.7 yards per attempt this year. This would have been a chin-scratching thing to say a couple of years ago, but in the matchup of Young vs Mayfield, Young has become the more trustworthy QB. Also, Bank of America Stadium typically doesn't get too wild and crazy, but with Carolina making another playoff push, the Panthers are beginning to develop a nice home field advantage in the Queen City.
Play Carolina Panthers

The hold-your-nose special of the week. Since the 2021-22 season, Miami has gone 8-2 straight-up, 6-3-1 against the spread in this AFC East matchup. Miami won-and-covered both meetings last season. Five of the last six contests between the Jets and Dolphins have gone over the total. Miami is coming off its bye week after starting the year 0-5 straight-up, 1-4 against the spread. The Dolphins' lone point spread cover this season came at Minnesota as a 9.5-point 'dog where the Vikings took a voluntary knee at the goal line in the closing minute to keep Miami within the lofty spread. The Jets return home after a disappointing effort at New England last week. New York has opened as a 4.5-point home favorite in this contest, and if that point spread holds true through out the week, it will be the most points the Jets have been asked to lay since mid-November 2024. New York went 0-2 straight-up and against the spread as a favorite last season, but did beat Cleveland as a small home favorite two weeks ago. Through Week 6, division underdogs have gone 15-12-1 straight-up, 20-8 against the spread this season. Per betting analyst Evan Abrams, that's the second-best start for division underdogs at the betting window in the Super Bowl era. Miami is returning from its bye week and should be a little healthier. Wide receiver Caleb Douglas is scheduled to return to practice this week after missing the last three games. The Jets are hoping to get some pieces back this week, specifically on offense. Running back Breece Hall, wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, offensive lineman Dylan Parham and edge rusher Joseph Ossai all missed last week's loss to the Patriots. At the end of the day, it's very, very difficult to find anything nice to say about Miami right now other than "They are coming off a bye." But we simply can't trust a team led by Aaron Glenn and Geno Smith to win by 6+ points. Glenn stumbled his way through an interview during last week's game, suggesting that he didn't know which team would be getting the ball after halftime. Over the last five games, Smith has been sacked 19 times. For all of Miami's struggles (and there are plenty), you can now look back at the Dolphins' schedule with a bit more context. This week's game against New York represents a significant drop in class compared to San Francisco, Kansas City, Minnesota and Cincinnati, which Miami played before the bye. Realistically, the Dolphins probably only have 3-4 chances to win a game this season, and this might be the best one. We're expecting to see a solid effort out of Miami on Sunday.
Play Miami Dolphins

Tennessee earned a 31-29 road win at Cleveland last season as a 3.5-point 'dog. The Browns out-gained the Titans by 120 yards and held a 22-13 advantage in first downs in that contest, but Tony Pollard was able to carry Tennessee to victory with 161 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The Titans got a small taste of what victory feels like, earning a 26-20 road win at Indianapolis last week to break a seven-game losing skid. We made a recommendation on the over in that contest, and while we are happy with the end result, we certainly didn't see any notable improvement from the Titans' offense. Out of those 26 points scored, only seven came from an offensive touchdown. Joey Slye kicked four field goals and Tennessee's special teams unit returned a blocked punt for a score as Tennessee finished with 186 total yards and 11 first downs. Cleveland enters Week 7 as the leader in the AFC North. The Browns have a pair of three-point wins over both Baltimore and Pittsburgh thus far with four outright upset wins on the young season. Much like Robert Saleh with the Titans, Browns' first-year head coach Todd Monken was happy with the win but he's well-aware of what his offense looks like right now. After the win over Baltimore, Monken said, "I don't know what to say in a lot of ways other than we've got a lot of work to do on the offensive side of the ball and we'll continue to work at it and get better." Browns running back Quinshon Judkins, offensive lineman Teven Jenkins, defensive tackle Mason Graham and defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. all missed last week's win over the Ravens. Safety Grant Delpit left that game with an apparent concussion and will be monitored through out the week. Some early money has shown on the over in this contest, and while that feels like a terrifying proposition once again, we can see the path to points. Plenty will be made about Tennessee's offense last week against the Colts, but the Titans simply didn't have the ball. Tennessee finished with a time of possession mark at 21:28 against Indianapolis and the Titans only ran 45 plays. Tennessee's defense was on the field for over 38 minutes and faced 78 plays. When you have a kicker like Joey Slye, all you realistically need is two first downs on a drive and you're on the cusp of field goal range. From a matchup perspective, things are A LITTLE easier for both offenses. Cleveland can't run the ball and Tennessee's defense is better against the run. So since the Browns already can't run the ball, there's no need to push that envelope. On the other side, Tennessee can't throw the ball and Cleveland's defense is better against the pass. So since the Titans already can't throw the ball, they might as well keep it on the ground against a Browns' defense than occasionally struggles against the rush. So the blueprint for both offenses shouldn't be too tough to figure out this week.
Play the Over

New York has won-and-covered each of the last four meetings in this cross-conference matchup, but the Texans and Giants haven't played since November 2022. Houston returns home after picking up a division win over Jacksonville in London last week. After some early-season struggles, the Texans have certainly shown plenty of "buy" signals in recent weeks with an offense that has scored 30.0 points per game over the last three contests. After some low-scoring affairs to get the season started, New York's last three games have flown over their respective totals. Giants' first-year head coach John Harbaugh shook up the roster last week. Running back Cam Skattebo did not have any carries against the Saints after struggling with some fumble issues earlier this season. Harbaugh then made the surprising move to bench Jameis Winston during the game in favor of newly-acquired J.J. McCarthy. As we go to print on Tuesday, Harbaugh has not named a starter for this week. From an x's and o's perspective, it's hard to argue that Harbaugh has raised Big Blue's floor this season. However, he's certainly got this team playing hard. Three weeks ago, they made a gritty goal line stand to beat the Cardinals. Two weeks ago, they had a 14-point comeback in the fourth quarter to force a tie against Washington. Last week, they easily could have waved the white flag when down 34-10 but they closed the game on a 17-0 run. It's hard to trust the quality of play you're going to see from Winston and/or McCarthy, but you can definitely trust the energy level. With Houston coming home after a division game in London, the Giants are likely going to be knocking on the back door when this game reaches the fourth quarter. Favorites of -6 and higher have gone 8-19-3 against the spread this season. At least one favorite of 6+ points has lost in each of the first six weeks after Tennessee and Arizona both pulled off outright upsets last week.
Play NY Giants

It hasn’t cost the 49ers just yet, but with the wide receivers injury list growing by the week, GM John Lynch might need to get Jerry Rice or Gene Washington on the speed-dial pretty soon after Mike Evans’ exit last Monday vs. the Commanders. Minus Evans (Achilles), and with the wide receiver crew already down several other key cogs like Deebo Samuel, Demarcus Robinson, Christian Kirk, and exciting rookie De’Zhaun Stribling, Brock Purdy’s remaining wideout targets - Jordan Watkins, Brandin Cooks, Jacob Cowing and Malik Turner - combined for a mere two catches in the second half on Monday night as Washington made a late run in Santa Clara. We’ll see who’s available and who’s not this week (Evans was ruled out on Saturday, though Kirk appears close to a return), but regardless, San Francisco has been cutting it awfully close in recent weeks. Sub-.500 Arizona and Washington pushed the Niners to the edge while the Denver win was a 3-point game into the last 2:15, with a narrow 3-point escape at Seattle also in the mix. Flying so close to the flame will burn the Niners sooner or later, perhaps this week if the Falcons can keep Michael Penix in the game as he nurses sore ribs like Apollo Creed in the 15th round of Rocky I. Penix, who was KO’d late by a rib shot in the October 11 OT loss to the Ravens, played thru the pain last week vs. the Bears when a late Atlanta rally would fall just short. All bets are off with the Falcons should Penix go down, so can expect Kevin Stefanski to summon a near Secret Service-like detail to help keep a clean pocket this week which as a byproduct should also aid RB Bijan Robinson, who like the rest of the offense, didn’t begin to catch fire until Penix returned to active duty in a Week Three win at Green Bay. Another angle of note is 49ers DC Raheem Morris facing the Atlanta team he coached the past two seasons (but we are sure Stefanski is aware of that as well and adjusts accordingly). More significant, we suspect, is that San Francisco hasn’t exhibited chilling knockout power in the past month, settling for split decisions as win streak has grown to six, the feeling of many NFC West insiders is that the Niners are going to be hard-pressed to keep avoiding banana peels, and the likelihood of another close game makes a capable dog like Atlanta all the more interesting. The Falcons have landed “over” in all four games since Penix returned to active duty last month in the aforementioned win vs. the Packers.
Play Atlanta Falcons

Five of the last six meetings in this cross-conference matchup have stayed under the total, with the last one being Minnesota's 21-13 victory in November 2024. Even though they are only two games outside of a playoff spot in the AFC, Indianapolis is ready to turn the page on the 2026-27 season. The Colts fired GM Chris Ballard on Monday. Tight end Tyler Warren was unable to play in last week's loss to the Titans. Wide receiver Alec Pierce is not likely to return this week and cornerback Sauce Gardner will now miss time with a strained calf. Even though the Colts have endured some tough times in recent years, they have been a good bet-on team when Indy hits the road. The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last ten away from home. The Vikings are coming off an early-season bye. Wide receiver Jordan Addison, tight end T.J. Hockenson, offensive lineman Christian Darrisaw and running back Jordan Mason were all battling injuries before the week off. Mason is scheduled to return from the IR this week. The under is 4-1 in Minnesota's games this season. Over the last four contests, the Vikings' defense has allowed an average of 10.5 points per game. Minnesota's offense has been difficult to trust as Kyler Murray simply hasn't found a rhythm in his new home, but the Colts' season has the potential to go off the rails. Indianapolis doesn't have a bye until December, so this unit has to ride the wave together for another six weeks. Minnesota's defense has terrorized opposing quarterbacks this season. The Vikings forced Green Bay's Jordan Love into a 50-percent completion rate as he was sacked four times with an interception. They held Chicago's Caleb Williams to 5.3 yards per pass attempt with no touchdowns, three sacks and an interception before he was eventually removed. Tampa Bay was held to 243 total yards and 11 first downs on 3.8 yards per play before the Vikings' defense eventually injured Baker Mayfield. Miami's Malik Willis went 9-for-17 with 85 passing yards, no touchdowns and two sacks. New Orleans' Tyler Shough went 16-of-25 for 96 passing yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Raise your hand if you feel good about Daniel Jones' outlook this week. Anyone?
Play Minnesota Vikings

Threatening to become an NFL version of Joel Embiid with an inability to stay healthy, Lamar Jackson’s ongoing iffy status with the ankle injury that has kept him out of the past two weeks is forcing adjustments all around for the Ravens. While backup Tyler Huntley has always been capable of stepping into the breach for short stretches, and indeed had won three straight emergency starts into last week, Jesse Minter is now looking at a third game in a row with Huntley as Jackson was ruled out on Saturday. Worryingly for Baltimore, after a rousing effort in the OT win at Atlanta on October 11, Huntley’s limitations were exposed by the Browns in last week’s 13-10 loss at Cleveland. Even if Jackson does return to active duty, however, it’s worth noting that the last time he was in the lineup at home vs. Joe Burrow, the Bengals won going away by a 32-14 count last Thanksgiving, a night in which the Ravens (then still under John Harbaugh) shot themselves in the foot with five giveaways. (Remember, however, that Baltimore avenged that result with a 24-0 win two weeks later on the road). As for Burrow, he’s been able to stay on the field lately, which hasn’t always been the case in his six past seasons, including a year ago when he was out over two months with a toe injury before making his return in that Thanksgiving night win at Baltimore. Last week’s bye was a lot more comfy for Burrow and the Bengals, too, after Burrow’s four TD passes on October 11 at Miami, when Zac Taylor also adjusted the game plan with positive results, relying more on a straight-forward run attack with vet workhorses Samaje Perine and Chase Brown carrying most of the mail and providing a perfect diversion for Burrow. Keep in mind, too, that prior to last season’s two outlier lopsided results, most recent meetings between these AFC North rivals have gone down to the wire with four of six clashes between 2022-24 decided by three points or fewer. Home-field edge has also meant little in this rivalry, either, with the road team covering nine of the last 11 meetings between these very-familiar foes.
Play Cincinnati Bengals

Denver has won-and-covered each of the last three meetings, but this is the first time these regional foes have met since December 2022. For what it's worth, each of the last five meetings have gone over the total as those five contests have seen an average of 53.6 points per game. The Cardinals snapped a four-game losing skid with an 18-16 road win over the Rams last week as a 13-point 'dog. Denver has a couple extra days to prep for this one after beating Seattle at home last Thursday. Five of the Broncos' six games have stayed under the total, and the lone game that went over (vs LA Rams) only saw one touchdown in the first 36 minutes. Cardinals' rookie running back Jeremiyah Love did not play in last week's win over the Rams. The Broncos are hopeful to get defensive backs Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga back this week. Both missed last week's win over the Seahawks. Sometimes, an "easy" road trip can do wonders for a team. Bo Nix has certainly heard the criticism, particularly the sharp words from former QB and current Amazon analyst Ryan Fitzpatrick, who said that Nix's performance against Seattle was, "almost disrespectful to the quarterback position." This trek to Phoenix probably represents the best-possible opportunity for a quick reset. You're a road favorite with limited travel with extra time to prep, playing in a dome where you will have plenty of fan support against an opponent that just pulled off an upset as a near-two-touchdown underdog the week prior. Let's not forget, Arizona beat the Rams last week without scoring a touchdown. That team isn't going to turn into the Greatest Show on Turf all of a sudden. Prior to beating Los Angeles, Arizona had lost its previous four games by an average of 16.5 points per game. Playing on the road in the NFL is difficult, but for Denver in this specific spot, a trip to Phoenix may be just what the doctor ordered.
Play Denver Broncos