Analysis

FIU has won-and-covered each of the last two meetings with a pair of double-digit wins. The Panthers earned a 56-30 road win in Murfreesboro, despite out-gaining the Raiders by only 37 yards in that contest. Six of the last seven meetings have gone over the total. Both teams are on equal rest after playing last Tuesday. Middle Tennessee snapped a brief losing skid with a 33-30 home win over Delaware last week. The Raiders were the beneficiary of 13 Blue Hen penalties that produced over 100 yards in Middle Tennessee's favor. Florida International is looking to get back in the win column after falling to Jacksonville State on a last-minute field goal. The Panthers out-gained the Gamecocks, had more first downs, won the turnover battle and held a sizable edge in time of possession, but couldn't overcome a pair of costly missed field goals. FIU kicker Robert Czeremcha had a 38-yard opportunity at the end of the second quarter and a 49-yard opportunity at the end of the fourth quarter, but missed both. The Panthers' defense allowed Jacksonville State to score 27 points after holding its first five opponents to an average of 12.2 points per game. Ultimately, we have some interest in the under in this contest. Conditions are expected to be quite breezy at Pitbull Stadium in Miami with gusts up to 20mph through out the game. As we mentioned, the Panthers' defense has been stout all season with the exception of last week's stumble against the Gamecocks. And we're willing to give Middle Tennessee a little bit of a pass for last week's performance against Delaware. The Blue Hens used three quarterbacks the week prior against Liberty, so Middle Tennessee had no clue who/what to prepare for in last week's contest. Last year's game between the Panthers and Raiders saw five turnovers and FIU scored 29 points over the course of eight minutes from the end of the third quarter into the beginning of the fourth quarter. As long as we can avoid a crazy scenario like that, we believe this will eventually be a low-scoring affair.
Play the Under

This will be the first meeting at the FBS level between the Bears and Blue Hens. Delaware had an extra day to prep for this one after falling at Middle Tennessee last week. The Blue Hens have dropped each of their last three (both straight-up and against the spread) since the injury to starting QB Nick Minicucci. Tyler Bell threw for over 300 yards in last week's game against the Blue Raiders, but Minicucci is one of the best quarterbacks at this C-USA level and leaves some big shoes to fill. Delaware head coach called Minicucci's status "week to week," which seemingly confirms that his return is unlikely on Tuesday. Missouri State earned a small upset win over Kennesaw State last Wednesday as a short home 'dog. The Bears' last three games have all stayed under the total. Getting a field goal with Missouri State feels pretty generous in this spot and we have some interest in the Bears. Missouri State made the QB switch to Henry Belin IV last week against Kennesaw State, and the Duke transfer rewarded that trust by going 28-of-39 for 300 yards and two touchdowns. Belin IV is a fifth-year senior who played his previous four seasons at Duke. Even though he is still somewhat of an unknown quantity in Conference-USA, his pedigree is still a notch above what other teams in the league are producing at the QB position. As we mentioned in our Middle Tennessee-Florida International preview, Delaware had the advantage of smoke-and-mirrors on their side last week. The Blue Raiders were forced to prepare for four quarterbacks last week (three saw playing time the previous week against Liberty, plus the small chance that Minicucci returned). Now that it appears Tyler Bell has the reins of Delaware's offense, Missouri State has a much better idea of what to prepare for this week compared to what Middle Tennessee had to do last week.
Play Missouri State

This will be the first meeting between the Jaguars and Herd since South Alabama's 28-0 win in November 2023. South Alabama has scored 50+ points in back-to-back wins over UL-Monroe and Arkansas State. The Jaguars' last five games have all gone over the total. Marshall has dropped back-to-back games against James Madison and Coastal Carolina. Dating back to the end of last season, the Herd are just 1-7 against the spread over their last eight games. This total has climbed into the mid-60s, and from the South Alabama side, we certainly see why. The Jaguars' last four games have seen 77, 66, 87 and 105 points. In conjunction with that, the totals have also gone through the roof. Those last four games have seen an average closing total of 55.3, so we're looking at a total on Tuesday that is significantly higher than what oddsmakers have been offering in South Alabama's games over the last month. Betting the under in a Jaguar game feels like a trip to the dentist at the moment, but we have some reservations about Marshall's ability to pull its weight. The Herd have been playing roulette at QB between Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and Zion Turner. After a strong campaign last season that saw him throw 17 touchdowns with only five interceptions, Del Rio-Wilson has already matched that interception tally from a year ago. If you took away his 413-yard day against FCS-level Gardner-Webb in September, Del Rio-Wilson's completion percentage would be down 4.5-percent from last year while generating fewer touchdowns and a big drop-off in production from the running game. Both defenses have their concerns, but we're not sure Marshall is the proper dance partner that can push this game into the upper-60s and beyond.
Play the Under

The home team has won-and-covered all three meetings since Sam Houston joined New Mexico State in Conference-USA. The Aggies earned a 37-10 win last season as a short home 'dog. All three meetings in this series have stayed under the total. New Mexico State is coming off a bye after previously falling at Florida International. In the Aggies' games against FBS-level opponents, the under has gone 4-1. After playing some solid football over the first month of the season, Sam Houston has fallen off a cliff over the last ten quarters. The Bearkats were nearly beating Texas Tech at halftime three weeks ago. Since then, Sam Houston has been out-scored by a combined tally of 79-6. It's been almost a full calendar month since the Bearkats last scored a touchdown (Sept. 26). We rode the SHSU train for a couple weeks at the start of the year because it appeared that the Bearkats' offense was taking a nice step forward with Landyn Locke under center. For whatever reason, that train has hit a wall. Over the last two weeks against Liberty and Western Kentucky, Locke has gone 33-of-60 (55.0-percent) for 250 passing yards with no touchdowns and an interception. That's 4.2 yards per pass attempt. The Bearkats' offense (or lack there of) will generate the headlines, but SHSU did put together a strong defensive performance against the Hilltoppers last week. And don't pin that 49-14 loss to Texas Tech on the Bearkats' defense, either, because two of the Red Raiders' first three touchdowns were scored off a pair of pick-sixes. SHSU's defense has been better than advertised in recent weeks.
Play the Under

When you think about the rise of Sun Belt football over the last five years, this rivalry played a big role in that. The Mountaineers and Dukes played some classics when JMU first joined the conference. Each of the first three meetings featured an outright upset by a 'dog of at least seven points. After back-to-back upset wins by App State in 2023 and 2024, the Dukes squashed any hope of a threepeat with a 58-10 home win last season. James Madison out-gained App State by nearly 500 yards in that contest. The 2026 version of the 'Neers looks a lot more competitive after App State won at Coastal Carolina last week. Kidd Brewer Stadium should be rockin' for this one because App State's last two home games against Charlotte and Old Dominion were both played in a monsoon. Knock on wood, the Boone faithful are looking forward to watching a game played in somewhat-normal conditions. What started because of injury concerns has developed into a legitimate two-QB system with Malachi Singleton and Henry Hasselbeck both running the Mountaineers' offense. Singleton, the more-polished passer, went 12-of-14 through the air for 151 passing yards last week at Coastal Carolina. Hasselbeck, the mobile runner, generated 125 yards on 21 carries while also throwing a touchdown pass. James Madison improved to 7-0 straight-up, 6-1 against the spread following last week's home win over Georgia State. Over the last four weeks, the Dukes have scored an average of 41.8 points per game. Oddsmakers have opened this game in line with our numbers, but we're looking to take the points with App State. As we mentioned, the 'Neers have played multiple games this season that you can essentially throw out. That win over Charlotte ended at 1am ET. App State may be creeping below the national radar, and there's no better place to have a coming-out party than a stand-alone showcase on an ESPN network on a Thursday night in Boone.
Play App State

East Carolina has won each of the last three meetings, including a 31-27 home win last season. Memphis has out-gained the Pirates in each of the last two meetings, but ECU has made the necessary plays in crunch time. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses last week. East Carolina lost at UAB as a 5.5-point road favorite and Memphis lost at Tulane as a 6.5-point road favorite. Since allowing 48 points to Alabama in the opener, East Carolina's last five games have all stayed under the total. That's the only direction that we can look in this one. During the preseason, much was made about the exodus of East Carolina's offensive personnel. Former offensive coordinator John David Baker left Greenville for Ole Miss. Former QB Katin Houser is now at Illinois. East Carolina's offense looks nothing like previous editions of the Pirates' attack. But we're now beginning to ask some questions about Memphis QB Marcus Stokes. The former D-II transfer has gone 31-of-58 (53.4-percent) over the last two weeks with eight sacks and three interceptions. He may be dealing with a few more bumps-and-bruises at this time of year compared to what he experienced at West Florida, especially since the Tigers are about to play their eighth game after opening the season in Week 0 at UNLV. And let's not pretend that Charles Huff's teams aren't prone to a late-season collapse. Last year at Southern Miss, the Eagles lost their last four games (4-1 to the under down the stretch). Memphis fans are hopeful that last week’s stumble was a small blip, but that remains to be seen.
Play the Under

Kennesaw has won-and-covered both meetings with the Flames since making the move to Conference-USA. Last year's 48-42 overtime affair was one of the best under-the-radar games of the college football season. Neither team held a lead of more than seven points as the Flames and Owls took turns landing haymakers through out the entire contest. They combined for 955 total yards and 49 first downs. Liberty is coming off a bye after winning each of its last five games. The Flames rebounded nicely from that Week 1 loss at James Madison, holding the last four opponents to an average of 12.3 points per game. Kennesaw is hoping to catch a break because the Owls have lost their last three games by a combined seven points. Dating back to the end of last season, seven of Kennesaw's last eight games have stayed under the total. The Owls lost to Missouri State on a walk-off field goal as time expired. Slowly but surely, Jamey Chadwell is beginning to convince fans and pundits that this isn't the same Liberty program that we have seen over the past few seasons. In a trend that started with Hugh Freeze before he left for Auburn, the Flames gained notoriety for suffering head-scratching losses as a big favorite. Chadwell reportedly battled some health concerns over the past year, and now with a clean bill of health and a focused roster, the Flames are really making some noise. Liberty has won-and-covered its last four games with an average cover margin of 16.0 points per game. Sprinkle in some of the revenge angle after last year's loss and the Flames look poised for another strong performance in this one.
Play Liberty

UConn has won each of the last three meetings, although these regional foes did not play last season. For what it's worth, now-UConn head coach Jason Candle did not face the Minutemen last season when he was at Toledo, so it's also been a couple years since he's seen this version of UMass. The Huskies are coming off a bye after previously earning a small upset win over Temple. That win over the Owls looked pretty good at the time, but perhaps not so much at the moment after Temple lost as a 21-point home favorite last week. Unfortunately for UMass, the Minutemen have fallen to earth in a hurry after a 4-0 start. Five of UMass' last six games have stayed under the total. Since the injury to starting QB Pop Watson, the Minutemen have failed to score 20 points in losses to Eastern Michigan, Miami (Oh) and Buffalo. As we go to print on Tuesday, there's been no update from UMass to suggest that Watson will be cleared for this one while he battles a foot/ankle injury. It doesn't seem like much because UConn typically doesn't move the college football needle very far, but the Huskies do represent a significant jump in class compared to what UMass has faced in recent weeks. Sagarin maintains a rating of every FBS and FCS-level team across the country and UConn enters this week at No. 94. Here's where UMass' last five opponents rank: 237th (Sacred Heart), 230th (Stonehill), 217th (Sacramento State), 139th (Eastern Michigan), 108th (Miami-Oh) and 128th (Buffalo). We tip our cap to the Minutemen for keeping things close and competitive over the last two weeks against the RedHawks and Bulls, but UConn should take care of business with relative ease.
Play UConn

This will be the third meeting in less than 12 months between the Blue Devils and Cavaliers. Virginia earned a 34-17 road win at Duke in the regular season, and the Blue Devils got revenge with an overtime win in the ACC Championship Game three weeks later. Both contests stayed under their respective totals. Both teams have already dropped a pair of conference games, so we are highly-unlikely to see either squad compete for that crown in 2026. Duke has lost back-to-back games against Georgia Tech and North Carolina, while Virginia is coming off a road loss at SMU. On the Cavaliers' side, it's been a rinse-and-repeat story for the last three weeks: If Beau Pribula can't run, then this offense is broken. Pribula opened the year by running for 110 yards on 15 carries against NC State in the Week 0 opener. Anyone that watched that game and saw him invite contact said to themselves, "There's no way he's making it through the season." He's been making it through the season, but he hasn't come close to sniffing a productive game like that since. Over the last three weeks against Florida State, Syracuse and SMU (not exactly a murderer's row of defenses), Pribula has gone 38-of-73 (52.1-percent) with three touchdowns and 12 sacks. With that being said, Virginia's defense held Duke to an average of 294.0 yards in last year's meetings. Take away Duke's points in overtime in the ACC Championship Game and the Blue Devils scored a total of 37 points in two games against the Cavaliers' defense. With so much familiarity built between these two programs over the last year, we can only look toward the under once again.
Play the Under

The road team has won each of the first two meetings since Army joined Tulsa in The American Conference. Tulsa earned a 26-25 upset win as a 9.5-point road 'dog last year. The Golden Hurricane out-gained the Knights by nearly 200 yards in that contest. Each of the prior two meetings have gone over the total. Tulsa returns home after back-to-back road games at Navy (loss) and Rice (win). For all intents and purposes, this will be the Golden Hurricane's third-straight week against a triple-option offense. Rice runs a slightly-different version compared to the service academies, but nonetheless, you're not going to find a team that's better-prepared to defend it than Tulsa right now. Over the last two weeks against the Owls and Midshipmen, Tulsa has allowed a total of nine pass completions. Army hits the road after back-to-back home wins over Tulane and Florida Atlantic. The Knights caught a little bit of a break last week, playing one of the most pass-happy offenses in the country with temperatures below 50-degrees and a stiff breeze at Michie Stadium. Winds rolling down the Hudson River Valley kept Florida Atlantic's passing game in-check, but that wasn't a problem for Army (one completion on the day). As we mentioned, it's rare to catch a service academy in this good of a spot. Tulsa should have a good feel for what to expect after back-to-back games against a run-heavy opponent, and they are getting Army on a high note after back-to-back wins that fell in the Knights' favor.
Play Tulsa

Proving he still has some tricks up his sleeve, long-serving head coach and former Fly Boy himself Troy Calhoun has Air Force punching above its weight once again and hanging around in the Mountain West race after notching a fourth straight win last week when outscoring UNLV. An earlier injury to do-everything QB Liam Szarka has turned out to be something of a non-event for the Falcons as backup Evan Medders has stepped in and performed like a Szarka clone while rushing for 266 yards across the past two weeks vs. Northern Illinois and Dan Mullen’s Rebs. Sure, Air Force is abandoning the forward pass (Medders is just 2-for-4 through the air the past two weeks!), but who needs to throw when the Falcons ran for better than 400 yards each of the last two games to move right on the heels of Army for the nation’s rushing lead? Meanwhile, Jay Sawvel might be saving his job as 4-3 Wyoming can start thinking about a bowl bid, though in truth there is so much flotsam on the Cowboys schedule (including much of the Mountain West) that even local Laramie High might be able to get bowl-eligible playing the likes of Northern Colorado, Northern Illinois and others. True, last week’s 41 points vs. the DeKalb Huskies was a Wyoming high-water mark since November of 2024 for Sawvel, whose own dual-threat QB Tyler Hughes (via William & Mary) did his own Medders/Szarka impersonation last Saturday when running for 183 yards. Let’s not forget, however, that last week’s foe NIU is still winless and enduring a nightmare campaign under an interim head coach, while Hughes and OC Christian Taylor were imported from Williamsburg to also generate a bit more of an aerial threat than Sawvel’s first two Laramie entries. To this point, however, any upgrade in the Cowboy passing game is mostly an illusion as Hughes is stuck on just 3 TD passes (with 7 picks) past the half-mile pole this season, and while Calhoun’s option can be excused for ranking bottom nationally in passing offense, placing a not-much-better 133rd wasn’t in the blueprint for this Wyoming attack. While Air Force has also been much more careful with the ball (+4 TO margin, while the Cowboys at -7 rank tied for 129th), there seem to be a few more ways that Calhoun’s troops can extend this margin. Also don’t forget the Falcons are one team that won’t be bothered by the 7,222-foot elevation at War Memorial Stadium in Laramie since Falcon Stadium sits at 6,621 feet at the foot of Pike's Peak.
Play Air Force

Perhaps emulating the 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates, who took some frightful beatings from the Yankees but still managed to win the World Series, Stanford has somehow managed three wins this season despite losses in its four other outings being recorded by a whopping 43 points per game (sheesh!). Consensus opinion around the ACC, however, remains that any competent foe ought to be able to take the Cardinal behind the woodshed, with the question in loop circles how much visiting NC State can be trusted in a late-night kickoff in the Bay Area at the same time most of the Wolfpack might be watching Jimmy Fallon on TV at home. Regional sources are starting to suggest that the walls might be starting to close in on long-serving head coach Dave Doeren, whose succession of 6 or 7-win seasons and a variety of minor bowl bids has numbed the support base that still can’t believe how the Wolfpack blew an earlier loss to Vanderbilt and more recently concerned with a second-half collapse at Raleigh vs. Wake Forest in front of last week’s bye. The Pack, however, does pass the basic competency test because spider-like QB CJ Bailey is capable of big play moments such as his career-high 373 passing yards in an upset of Louisville three weeks ago. As long as explosive RB Jayden Scott can return (as hoped) from a foot injury suffered in the win over the Cards on October 3, he balances the offense with his 5.8 yards per carry and reflected further in a 148-yards showcase vs. App State four weeks ago. Meanwhile, note that before last week’s win in Palo Alto vs. FCS Elon, Tavita Pritchard’s offense had managed ten points and gained less than 2 yards per carry combined in blowout losses vs. Wake Forest and Notre Dame, and the defense has been run off of the field by most of the competent offenses it has faced. If the Wolfpack is in the mood to save the job of its coach, the Cardinal is the first step in a favorable schedule the rest of the way that should help Doeren's cause and at least get NC State back to another bowl.
Play NC State

The trek from Fort Worth to Morgantown is one of the longest in the Big XII, but don't tell either of these teams. The road team has won each of the last four meetings in this series with West Virginia winning at TCU in both 2021 and 2023. The Mountaineers have covered the spread in eight of the last nine meetings in this matchup. Very little separated these teams last year in Morgantown. The Horned Frogs left with a 23-17 win, but you can't get much closer in yards (343-342) and first downs (20-19). We've got two teams on the opposite ends of the totals spectrum. TCU's last four games have all stayed under the total, while all seven of West Virginia's games have gone over the total. The Mountaineers aren't just "going over the total," they are playing a different sport than the rest of the Big XII. Over the last five weeks, West Virginia's games have seen an average of 77.4 points per game. The Mountaineers' defense has allowed 40+ points in four-straight games. With all due respect to Iowa State and Cincinnati, those teams weren't being pegged for high-flying offense at the beginning of the season and they still had no problem hitting that mark against the Mountaineers’ defense. Three of those games that we just listed were all at home, where theoretically, West Virginia’s defense should have some kind of advantage over the opposing offense. TCU's offense has seen its struggles, but from where we sit, nothing will cure your offense faster than a date with West Virginia.
Play the Over