Analysis

This contest was already being viewed as arguably the best Thursday Night Football game of the season, and we certainly didn't see anything in Week 1 to make us disagree. In a game that was 7-0 at halftime, Detroit earned a 31-30 win over the Saints that went the full distance in overtime. The Lions' defense allowed Tyler Shough to throw for 410 yards and three touchdowns, but they made the game-winning stop on a two-point conversion with the game on the line in the closing seconds of the extra frame. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs scored Detroit's first touchdown of the season with a one-yard run in the first quarter. That was Gibbs' 50th career NFL touchdown, making him the sixth player in league history to score 50 touchdowns in his first 50 games. Things were equally as exciting in Houston where the Bills opened their season with a 36-31 win over the Texans in a game that featured nine lead changes. Trailing by one point after the two-minute warning, Josh Allen connected with Josh Palmer on a 34-yard touchdown pass to put the Bills ahead and Buffalo's defense made the necessary plays in the Texans’ final drive. This will be the inaugural regular season game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. While Bills Mafia will certainly be making plenty of noise, this will essentially be a new environment for both teams. Our power ratings are in line with where this game has opened, but we are comfortable laying this number with Buffalo. Last year, Houston's defense finished No. 2 in EPA per play, No. 2 in success rate allowed, No. 2 in passing success rate allowed and No. 3 in EPA per rush attempt allowed. The Bills' offense scored 36 points with 409 total yards on 7.9 yards per play against them on the road last week. Buffalo only faced nine third downs in the entire game and only had to punt twice. If you can do that against the Texans' defense, then we have a grim outlook for a Lions' defense that just got torched by Tyler Shough in his 12th career game in the NFL. Buffalo has won each of the last five meetings, with the last one being a 48-42 road win in Detroit in December 2024. Josh Allen went 23-of-34 with 362 passing yards and two touchdowns in that contest. He added 68 yards on the ground and two more rushing touchdowns as Buffalo generated 8.2 yards per play and 28 first downs against the Lions' defense.
Play Buffalo Bills

After taking a two-score lead into the locker room at halftime, the Packers were out-scored 22-0 in the fourth quarter in a 39-22 loss at Minnesota. Jordan Love threw for 387 yards and two touchdowns, but he didn't get any help from the offensive line or rushing attack. With Josh Jacobs suspended, MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks combined for 66 rushing yards on 20 carries (3.3 yards per carry) with no catches out of the backfield. Green Bay went 3-of-12 on third down, turned the ball over twice, Love was sacked four times and the Packers committed 12 penalties for 98 yards as the wheels fell off in the second half. On the Jets' side, Gang Green looked like a professional football team for the first time in quite a while. New York has had a talented roster for a while, but too often the Jets have looked like a team that didn't practice during the week. That wasn't the case in Nashville as New York earned a wire-to-wire win over the Titans. Geno Smith was not sacked and the Jets did not turn the ball over, which is music to the ears of second-year head coach Aaron Glenn. Our power ratings are in line with where this game has opened, but we're a little more interested in the total. Green Bay has some massive concerns on the offensive line right now after Love was sacked four times against the Vikings. The Packers' defense did its job (well, for three quarters at least), holding Minnesota to 239 total yards on 3.9 yards per play. Teams that generate 3.9 yards per play typically don't score 39 points like the Vikings did. As we go to print on Monday night, there are a handful of 45's in the market. The Jets haven't played a game with a closing total of 45 points since Week 5 of last season.
Play the Under

Well, he warned us. While every other coach in the league is looking to lift the Lombardi Trophy, Bears' head coach Ben Johnson told the media in the offseason that he wants to lead a record-breaking offense and see where the chips fall after that. So far so good. Chicago generated 552 yards and scored 59 points in a Week 1 demolition of the Panthers. That was a tie game midway through the third quarter, but Carolina simply could not keep up with the lightning-fast pace that Caleb Williams and Co. were setting. The Kyler Murray era in Minneapolis got off to a disastrous start, but the Vikings rallied for an impressive division win over Green Bay in Week 1. Murray's first pass as a member of the Purple People Eaters was intercepted and he suffered a concussion shortly after, but Carson Wentz and the Vikings' defense led a very impressive comeback effort. Murray took a very scary hit that seemed to affect his neck more than his head, but he reportedly participated in team meetings on Monday and will attempt to clear concussion protocol for this game. Keep an eye on his status through out the week. At the beginning of the week, we’re going to operate under the assumption that Wentz gets the nod for the Vikings, and if that is the case, the only direction we can look is toward the under. Five of the last seven meetings between the Vikings and Bears have stayed under the total, and this opening total of 49.5 that we're seeing on Monday night is by far the highest number we've seen between these teams since the Covid seasons of 2020-21. Coach Johnson is trying to kick the Bears' offense into a different gear this season, but Chicago only scored 24 and 19 points against Brian Flores' defense last year. If there's any defensive coordinator that can give this offense fits, Flores is probably the guy. Just ask Jordan Love.
Play the Under

The Patriots' 2026 season began in a very similar fashion to how the 2025 season ended. Drake Maye was never able to get comfortable against the Seahawks' defense, ending the night with three interceptions and three sacks as New England failed to take advantage of Sam Darnold's absence on the other side. Maye's struggles will draw most of the headlines, but he didn't receive much help. Newly-acquired receiver AJ Brown suffered an ankle injury and will miss the next four games. Dynamic running back TreVeyon Henderson missed that Week 1 contest, and Rhamondre Stevenson (2.8 yards per carry) wasn't able to fill the void in production. Per NFL analyst Kevin Cole from Unexpected Points, five of Stevenson’s 18 carries resulted in a significant loss of momentum including failure to pick up a 3rd-and-1. Former Packer Romeo Doubs has seemingly failed to gain the confidence of Maye. Doubs failed to catch any of his three targets, including a costly drop when he was wide open with under ten minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh earned a 20-13 win over Atlanta that was probably closer than it should have been. The Steelers' offense only generated one touchdown and 264 total yards on 4.1 yards per play. Pittsburgh went 3-of-13 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth down with a lost fumble and a missed field goal. With New England having three extra days to prepare for life without Brown, we're inclined to look in the Patriots' direction. Pittsburgh was not impressive at all against a Falcons' team that was starting its third option at quarterback. If Henderson can return to the Patriots' offense, that gives Maye a valuable option that he was sorely lacking against the Seahawks. New England out-gained Pittsburgh 369-203 in last year's contest, and the Steelers haven't shown us enough to suggest we won't see a similar outcome in this one.
Play New England Patriots

If you would have printed out the box score and handed it to Panthers' fans before Sunday's game against the Bears, almost every Carolina fan would have signed up for it on the spot. You're tellin' me we're going to score 37 points and generate 478 yards with 24 first downs while going 4-for-4 in the red zone?! We would imagine that most folks inside Bank of America Stadium would have signed up for that. Unfortunately, those numbers were only good enough for a 22-point defeat against the white-hot Bears. Bryce Young has seemingly formed a nice bond with Jalen Coker, but an offense with only two viable receivers (along with Tetairoa McMillan) is likely going to struggle. Xavier Legette and Jimmy Horn Jr. both failed to catch a pass on Sunday and Horn Jr. fumbled a punt, which has seemingly sealed their fate at the bottom of the depth chart. With Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa both unavailable, the Falcons called upon Cooper Rush for a surprise start against the Steelers. Trailing by three with the ball near midfield in the fourth quarter, Rush had a screen pass intercepted by TJ Watt and returned for a touchdown. When asked about the potential return of either Penix Jr. or Tagovailoa, Falcons' head coach Kevin Stefanski simply replied, "No updates" in his Monday press conference. Carolina has had Atlanta's number over the past few years (4-1 straight-up and ATS last five meetings), and even though things got out of hand against the Bears, the Panthers still have some positives to take away from that result.
Play Carolina Panthers

The offense certainly didn't help matters, but even without Myles Garrett for the first time since 2016, Browns' fans still entered the season with high hopes for Cleveland's defense. Those hopes did not come to fruition as Jacksonville scored on each of its first four possessions. The Jaguars generated 6.4 yards per play, held the ball for nearly 34 minutes and only had to punt twice against a Browns' defense that still has some top-level talent at a number of positions. That unit needs to be a little more aggressive in this contest because the Bucs were a turnover machine in their opener. Tampa Bay lost four fumbles and Baker Mayfield was sacked four times in a chaotic loss to the Bengals. This is the hold-your-nose special of the week, but we're struggling to justify Tampa Bay laying this many points. Jacksonville became such a popular teaser option last week against the Browns and oddsmakers are seemingly trying to prevent that this week with point spreads approaching -9. We're struggling to make this spread more than a touchdown, and that's following a two-point downgrade for the Browns after Week 1. As we sit here on Monday night, Tampa Bay (8-9 last year and fumbled four times in the opener) is being asked to cover the same number as Jacksonville (13-4 division winner who went 8-0 straight-up and against the spread to close last season). Cleveland was certainly a mess last week, but like we mentioned, Jacksonville scored on its first four possessions so that game was over by the end of the first quarter. If Cleveland can do a better job of keeping this in a neutral game state, Quinshon Judkins should be able to provide a little more help in the running game than he was able to last week.
Play Cleveland Browns

It's probably not a coincidence that Cincinnati went 3-0 in the preseason because Zac Taylor's squad has one heckuva stretch to open the season. After beating the Bucs in a sloppy affair in Week 1, the Bengals will now play four of the next five games on the road - All against AFC opponents. Cincinnati earned a 33-27 win over Tampa Bay in the opener, but that game was marred by sloppy play and turnovers. The Bucs lost four fumbles and Bengals QB Joe Burrow threw a pick-six. The Texans have their backs against the wall looking to avoid an 0-2 start, and we believe they will do just that. Houston dropped a heartbreaker at home against Buffalo in Week 1, but we did not downgrade the Texans after that effort. CJ Stroud went 26-of-38 through the air and Houston generated 26 first downs, but couldn't overcome a -2 turnover differential. The Texans' defense got torched by former MVP Josh Allen, but we're expecting a better effort from that unit in this one. Cincinnati didn't get much from the rushing attack against the Bucs as Chase Brown and Samaje Perine combined for 75 yards on 21 carries (3.6 yards per carry). Tight end Mike Gesicki was the team's leading receiver as Burrow struggled to find Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. We saw exactly how thin the margins can be in the NFL in Week 1, and each team landed on the opposite end of the spectrum. In Cincinnati, the Bengals recovered all four of Tampa Bay's fumbles. In Houston, the Texans failed to recover a James Cook fumble on a critical play. Then, with less than two minutes remaining, Kamari Lassiter dropped an interception that literally hit him in the chest and Buffalo would score the game-winning touchdown on the next play. If any of those balls bounce a different way, we could easily be talking about a 1-0 Texans team fresh off a win over the Bills laying more than a field goal against an 0-1 Bengals team that lost at home to the Bucs. We see value on Houston at the flat -3.
Play Houston Texans

Lamar Jackson looked like Superman in his first game with new head coach Jesse Minter and offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, but he better keep that cape handy. Jackson finished with 324 passing yards and a touchdown on the ground, but Baltimore's receiving corps took some major hits against the Colts. Zay Flowers and talk-of-the-town rookie Ja'Kobi Lane were both unable to finish that 41-23 win in Indianapolis. Lane reportedly suffered a fractured wrist and will miss several weeks, while Flowers is dealing with a nagging hamstring injury that forced him to miss two weeks during the preseason. Devontez Walker also missed the opener due to a groin injury, so Jackson doesn't have too many healthy options in the passing game. If you read the Week 1 newsletter, you know that we asked some questions regarding the way Saints head coach Kellen Moore handled the preseason. Starting QB Tyler Shough did not take a single snap, which was also the case for almost every other Saints starter. And whaddya know, New Orleans did not score a point in the first half against the Lions. The Saints' first eight possessions featured two interceptions, one fumble and five punts. You would think they may have wanted to knock some of that rust off during an exhibition game and not on the road in Detroit in Week 1, but alas, they get paid the big bucks to make those decisions. Once the Saints realized they were in a football game, they scored on four-straight possessions to send the game to overtime where they eventually fell by a point. Jackson and Derrick Henry will likely enjoy plenty of success on the ground, but if Flowers is unable to go, the Saints' defense will likely be able to crowd the line of scrimmage in a way that Indianapolis couldn't do last week out of respect for the speed of Flowers and Lane. New Orleans' offense is good enough to knock down the back door in the latter stages of this contest, much like it did last week in the Motor City.
Play New Orleans Saints

First team to 17 wins?! After what Titans' fans saw in Week 1 against the Jets, they would probably be thrilled with 17 points on Sunday against the Eagles. We put a lot of trust in Tennessee in Week 1, expecting to see a fiery effort in Robert Saleh's debut against the team that canned him a couple years ago. The result was ten points scored with 195 total yards and 11 first downs on 4.0 yards per play against a team that went 3-14 last season. Needless to say, Saleh has his work cut out for him. The Nashville faithful are beginning to lose patience in former No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward, who threw for 140 yards and was sacked three times. Perhaps the Titans got away from the running game a little too early as Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears only combined for ten carries. That was a 10-3 game at halftime and Pollard generated 5.0 yards per carry, so there wasn't a huge need to put that game on Ward's shoulders. Things didn't look much better at Lincoln Financial Field where the Eagles got the win over Washington, but only generated a total of ten first downs in the process. Saquon Barkley finished with 83 rushing yards, but 42 of them came on one carry and he generated an average of 2.9 yards on his other 14 rushing attempts. Starting left guard Landon Dickerson has been placed on injured reserve and will miss at least the next four games. The Philly Phaithful didn't like what they saw from the offense, but the Birds' defense was in midseason form. That unit gave Jayden Daniels fits, and they will certainly be licking their chops against Ward this week. Even with the shaky offense, the Eagles still enjoyed a +1.6 yards per play advantage over the Commanders. Laying this many points with the Eagles is not an enjoyable experience right now, but Ward hasn't shown us anything to suggest that he can find the end zone multiple times against this top-notch defense.
Play Philadelphia Eagles

Welcome to Raider Nation, Klint Kubiak. The former offensive coordinator earned his first win as a head coach as Las Vegas handled Miami with relative ease. Kirk Cousins went 21-of-30 with three touchdowns and two interceptions in his debut in silver-and-black. Over the last few years, Kubiak has developed a knack for running some really strong offenses behind middle-of-the-road quarterbacks. Since 2022, here are the quarterbacks that Kubiak has worked with: Russell Wilson, Brock Purdy, Derek Carr and Sam Darnold. Solid? Absolutely. Flashy? Not so much. We trust Kubiak and Cousins to hold up their end of the deal when it comes to this total and we are interested in the over. In our opinion, the Chargers' loss to Arizona in Week 1 had more to do with the Cardinals' improvement instead of LA's failures. Arizona's biggest problems last year revolved around injuries and depth. Those usually aren't an issue in Week 1, and the Cardinals showed what they are capable of with a new coaching staff and a clean bill of health. We're willing to give Jim Harbaugh's squad a SMALL pass for that result but you also have to wonder how much he misses now-Ravens head coach Jesse Minter, who worked as Harbaugh's defensive coordinator over the last four seasons. In their first game without Minter, the Chargers' defense allowed Arizona to score 26 points with 393 total yards and 23 first downs on 5.5 yards per play. Arizona only hit the 26-point mark three times in 17 games last year. Justin Herbert should look a little more comfortable against a defense that he crushed last season. In two games against the Raiders, Herbert completed 72.3-percent of his passes while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and one interception. That Raiders-Dolphins game had 37 points at the midway point of the third quarter, but no one found the end zone over the final 25 minutes. We'd be quite surprised if that happened again in a game involving these AFC West rivals.
Play the Over