Analysis

Pitt is 7-1 straight-up, 6-2 against the spread over the last eight meetings in this ACC matchup. The Panthers earned a 30-13 road win at Syracuse last season. Six of the last seven games have stayed under the total. So who is playing Jekyll and who is playing Hyde this week? Two of the not-so-trustworthy teams in the ACC will take the field on Thursday. One week after beating a solid MAC entry in Miami (Oh) by 45 points, Pitt played one of the ugliest games of the weekend in a 12-7 win over UCF. Weather was a factor at Acrisure Stadium, but nonetheless, the Panthers were only able to generate 4.4 yards per play while going 5-for-18 at home against a Knights' defense that isn't projected to be very good. Neither Pitt nor UCF can put TOO much blame on the weather because there wasn't a single turnover in that contest. Syracuse isn't exactly a model of consistency, either, as the Orange lost at home 21-18 to Cal despite out-gaining the Bears by nearly 200 yards. Unlike Pitt, turnovers were the main concern in upstate New York as Steve Angeli threw three interceptions against the Bears. Syracuse finished with 15 penalties for 132 yards. Ultimately, when you've got two teams that each rank low on the trust meter, it's hard to ignore a ten-point head start. Even with his turnover struggles, Angeli threw for over 300 yards and three Syracuse receivers each finished with 70+ yards through the air. Even if Pitt takes a decent lead, the Orange offense is good enough to knock on the back door.
Play Syracuse

Surprisingly, these ACC foes have only met one time in the last 12 years. The 'Canes beat the Deacs 42-14 in Miami in November 2024. Miami had some extra time to prep for this one after handling FCS-level Florida A&M on Thursday. Sophomore receiver Malachi Toney continues to show why he's a highlight waiting to happen every time he touches the ball, generating 330 receiving yards on 16 receptions with four touchdowns in his first two games. Toney and QB Darian Mensah draw most of the headlines in Coral Gables, but there is an under-the-radar storyline brewing for the 'Canes. Miami was missing its top three cornerbacks last week against the Rattlers as Xavier Lucas joined OJ Frederique Jr. and Ja'Boree Antoine on the sidelines. Starting safety Bryce Fitzgerald was forced to play cornerback and freshman JJ Dunnigan was thrust into the starting safety role. You can get away with that against Florida A&M. You might not be able to get away with that against Gio Lopez. Wake Forest's experienced gunslinger will be looking to share some of the spotlight in this stand-alone contest. The Deacs are playing with some confidence after last week's overtime win at Purdue. If there are any signs of fatigue, they are likely to show up on the defensive end. Dating back to the end of last season, Wake Forest's last six games have all gone over the total. Those six games cleared their respective closing totals by an average of 15.2 points per game.
Play the Over

How far is too far? That is the question that bettors and oddsmakers are asking in this Big XII showdown in the Lone Star State. With a schedule that doesn't present many obstacles, bettors have seemingly had this one circled for quite a while as a spot where the Red Raiders may stumble after a not-so-inspiring effort at Oregon State. Seasoned bettors were licking their chops at the idea of getting Willie Fritz as a juicy 'dog, trying to knock off the head honcho in the Big XII. Apparently oddsmakers wanted nothing to do with that. Prior to Week 1, Texas Tech was a 13.5-point favorite in this game in DraftKings' game of the year market. On Tuesday afternoon, we're looking at mostly -7.5 across the board and it might not be done moving. Can Houston win? Absolutely. Can the Cougars stay within the number? Sure they can. But just know that you are not getting ANY kind of value in this number. Texas Tech has won-and-covered each of the last seven meetings, including a 35-11 road win at Houston last October. The Red Raiders closed as a 13.5-point road favorite in that game, and now are only laying -7.5 at home. Cougars' starting QB Conner Weigman went 5-of-12 for 71 yards with no touchdowns and one interception in that contest. The Cougars will likely be a very trendy upset pick this week and Fritz is a great coach to have on your side, but Houston has quite the gap to close between these two programs after what we saw last year.
Play Texas Tech

Keep an eye on the status of Delaware QB Nick Minicucci, who left last week's loss at Vanderbilt with an injury but did return as the Blue Hens tried to forge a spirited comeback in Nashville. Minicucci is the straw that stirs the drink in Delaware, leading an offense that out-gained Vanderbilt on a per-play basis last week (and had more first downs). Assuming he is good-to-go, we're interested in the over in this contest. Despite playing in different conferences, these regional foes should have some vague familiarity with one another. Coastal Carolina is led by first-year head coach Ryan Beard, who arrived from Delaware’s Conference USA after a stint at Missouri State. The Chanticleers have looked a little better than expected thus far, covering the spread in each of their first two games against West Virginia and FCS-level Fordham. Our ears perk up in games like this where a small-conference school is coming off a game against an SEC opponent. Those teams are typically nursing some bumps and bruises during the week, and that normally shows up a little bit more on the defensive end where cornerbacks may be a step slow and linebackers are late in clogging the running lane. Coastal Carolina's offense has shown enough to suggest the Chanticleers can score some points in this matchup.
Play the Over

Game is being played at Wembley Stadium in London. Though we suspect most locals might be paying more attention to the Spurs-Aston Villa match at Tottenham's stadium in North London a bit more than this Big XII battle at Wembley, the Sun Devils and Jayhawks have been picked to further push the conference envelope that loop commish Brett Yormark has been forwarding. Will a commercial success in London foretell future Big XII adventures elsewhere on the globe? Maybe UCF vs. West Virginia next year in Prague? While we contemplate all of that, Lance Leipold might have other things on his mind after his Kansas was put in its place in last Friday’s border war vs. Missouri, such as the realization that this season’s Jayhawks might have a significant drop-off at QB from recent years when Jalon Daniels (who has made the NFL Bucs roster as Baker Mayfield's backup) was piloting the attack. Successor Isaiah Marshall was found very wanting last week against the Tigers, completing less than half of his passes, tossing a pair of picks and being sacked four times as Kansas gradually lost touch in Lawrence. Big XII onlookers seem to have fewer questions about ASU, as Kentucky transfer QB Cutter Boley has been whipping the ball around the yard pretty good in two starts, already on eight TD passes, and while noting that six of those came vs. outmanned FCS rep Morgan State in the opener, Boley had highly-ranked Texas A&M on its heels for much of last week’s clash in College Station before Aggie manpower (and two pick-sixes in the fourth quarter) turned a close game into a misleading romp at Kyle Field. Moreover, the Sun Devils might have uncovered a new star in 6-foot-5 senior wideout transfer Reed Harris, already on 15 catches for better than 21 yards per grab after snaring nine last week. We’re guessing he is happy with the move to transfer from Boston College in the offseason. Kenny Dillngham’s Sun Devils did outgain A&M by more than 100 yards, too, and after holding Marcel Reed and the Aggie offense to well under 300 yards, Dillingham can feel confident that many of the Marshall-led Jayhawk advances are likely to fizzle. As long as the Sun Devils don’t kill themselves with giveaways (four last Saturday) and penalties (nine at College Station, compared to just one for A&M) like last week, Arizona State can fire the majority of scoring shots in London before heading to Heathrow for a long and happy flight home.
Play Arizona State

It was hot enough in South Philadelphia last weekend, and Penn State head coach Matt Campbell made the Nittany Lion faithful sweat a little more than necessary. In a glorified home-but-not-home-game against Temple, we had a tie ballgame at the end of the first half before the Nittany Lions found their legs. Some curious play calling in the red zone prevented Penn State from taking an early lead and normally-reliable kicker Ryan Barker missed a field goal to keep the outnumbered cherry-and-white fans interested. Needing to jumpstart the offense, Rocco Becht turned to old faithful as he connected with former Iowa State tight end Benjamin Brahmer for two touchdowns. Under James Franklin, the Nittany Lions were very good against the spread as a notable favorite. With Wisconsin coming to town next week in the Big Ten opener, Campbell doesn't strike us as a guy that is too concerned with punching in late scores. Starting running back Carson Hansen was held to just 4.4 yards per carry against the Owls, so getting the running game in Big Ten shape will likely be the focus in this one. We have a pretty strong lean toward the under in this one, but with such a disparity of talent between Penn State's defense and Buffalo's offense, the likelihood of a defensive touchdown is high. The Nittany Lions already have a +3 turnover margin this season, and we expect that number to grow against the struggling Bulls.

This is the first meeting since 2014 between these Buckeye State foes. Ohio State dispatched fellow MAC entry Ball State 56-3 two weeks ago, and beat Ohio 37-9 last year. We're not sure how many teams actually have the talent to replicate it, but Texas laid the blueprint for defending the Buckeyes. First-year defensive coordinator Will Muschamp made some fantastic halftime adjustments against star receiver Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State never found the end zone in the second half of Saturday's 24-23 loss in Austin. Smith finished with eight catches for 164 yards and one touchdown, but he didn't touch the ball after the 9:37 mark of the third quarter. Six of his eight catches came in the first half, but Buckeyes' QB Julian Sayin went 0-for-4 when targeting Smith over the final four possessions. Ultimately, this result will come down to how many series Ryan Day leaves his starters in for. The Buckeyes don't have their bye week until the end of October, so they will open the season with seven-straight games. This is as close to a bye week as you're going to get, so Coach Day might as well take advantage of it. Kent State has typically struggled in these games in the past. Over the last two seasons, the Flashes have lost to Texas Tech, Florida State, Oklahoma and South Carolina by an average margin of 51.3 points per game. But guess what? A 51-point loss in Columbus would still be enough to cover this spread.
Play Kent State

Clemson is 7-0 straight-up, 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings of this ACC series. The Tigers beat the Tar Heels 38-10 in Chapel Hill last season as a 15.5-point road favorite. Clemson out-gained North Carolina 488-270 in that contest. "He ain't a good one right now, but he's gonna be." Those were the words that Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney used to describe true freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds, who will get the starting nod in this one. Reynolds went 16-of-27 for 178 yards against Georgia Southern in relief of starter Christoper Vizzina, who suffered an elbow injury and is expected to miss some time. After taking care of business against the Eagles, Swinney said that he planned on making the move to Reynolds regardless of Vizzina's status. "It's based on how they played. We just feel, based on opportunity, mistakes and body of work, Tait has earned the opportunity to start." The Tar Heels are 2-0 after taking down FCS-level East Tennessee State on Saturday. North Carolina generated 8.1 yards per play and transfer QB Billy Edwards Jr. enjoyed a productive afternoon with just five incompletions and no interceptions. This game has seen plenty of action in the early-week market, and we're looking in the Tar Heels' direction. It's anyone's guess what we'll see from Reynolds in his first career start against one of the greatest defensive minds the sport has ever seen, but there seems to be a little more pep in Bill Belichick's step right now.
Play North Carolina

The Gophers are licking their wounds after getting whipped by Mississippi State in the opener. PJ Fleck will need to pull out all of the motivational tricks to pull his team off the mat, but we are focused on the total in this one. Gophers' running back Darius Taylor only played 16 snaps against the Bulldogs and was unable to finish that game. Freshman receiver Hayden Moore also suffered a leg injury and was able to finish that contest. Fleck will likely ask the defense to do the heavy lifting in this one, which they've had no problems with in the past. Over the last two seasons, Minnesota's defense has been dominant against inferior competition in lower-scoring games. In 2025, Minnesota allowed a total of ten points in non-conference games against Buffalo and Northwestern State. In 2024, Minnesota did not allow a single point in non-conference games against Rhode Island and Nevada. Minnesota only allowed seven points against Eastern Illinois in this year’s opener. Akron earned a win-and-cover last week against FCS-level Robert Morris, but don't forget the Zips lost their starting QB on the eve of Week 1 against Wake Forest. Joe Moorhead's team is still finding its footing, and based on what the Gophers have done in this spot in years past, the Zips are likely going to struggle.
Play the Under

The Wildcats and Green Wave will continue their every-other-year series as Tulane travels to Manhattan on Saturday. The road team has handled business in the first two games of this matchup with the Wave winning at K-State in 2022, and the 'Cats returned the favor in New Orleans in 2024. Collin Klein's team has out-scored its first two opponents 108-10 as the 'Cats beat up on Nicholls and Washington State. In this battle of first-year head coaches, things are looking a little tougher on Bourbon Street as Will Hall tries to maintain the foundation that Willie Fritz and Jon Sumrall laid. After getting beat by two touchdowns against Duke in the opener, the Green Wave narrowly escaped South Alabama at home last week. The Jaguars enjoyed a 25-13 advantage in first downs, but an 80-yard touchdown run by Jaylin Lucas was about the only thing the Green Wave could hang their hat on. Our power ratings are in line with where this game has opened, but we can only look in the Wildcats' direction. Tulane QB Kadin Semonza is only completing 58.1-percent of his passes thus far and we haven't seen enough from the Wave passing attack to suggest they can stay within the number. K-State has a bye coming up in two weeks, so there's no real need to pull up short of the goalposts here because there's a rest spot on the horizon. Klein was a member of the Wildcats' coaching staff that lost to Tulane in Manhattan in 2022, and he already let the media know that he remembers that game in his press conference earlier this week.
Play Kansas State

This will be the first meeting between the 'Dawgs and Razorbacks since October 2021. Georgia has won-and-covered each of the last three meetings. "Georgia wide receiver arrested for driving 900 miles over the speed limit, right? That’s a weekly occurrence." Ryan Silverfield made those comments (along with a few more) on a radio show when he was the head coach at Memphis last September, not having any idea what the next 12 months would bring. Silverfield is now the head coach at Arkansas, and his first SEC opponent is...Georgia. Both coaches have been asked about the remarks and both are taking the high road, but Kirby Smart seems more willing to keep the playbook open against inferior opponents this season compared to years past. The Bulldogs have out-scored their first two opponents by a combined margin of 133-23, putting the 0-15 ATS streak as a favorite of 38+ points in the rear view mirror. QB Gunner Stockton went 13-of-16 for 234 yards and five touchdowns in last week's 70-20 win over Western Kentucky. The Bulldogs' first two contests have gone over their respective totals by an average margin of 22 points per game, and that's the only direction we can look in this one. With no one taking an early claim to the Heisman, Stockton may be able to throw his name in the ring against a Razorbacks' defense that just allowed Utah to throw for 300 yards last week. And even though Smart says he's forgiven Silverfield for last year's comments, we'll believe it when we see it.
Play the Over

The "letdown spot" alarm bells are ringing, but what have you seen from Bowling Green to suggest the Falcons can stay feisty in this one? There's no doubt that Iowa State is feeling down after letting last week's CyHawk slip away in a 16-13 loss. The Cyclones took a lead into the fourth quarter but Iowa kicked the game-winning 42-yard field goal with 15 seconds remaining. QB Jaylen Raynor doesn't look ready for the Power Conference spotlight as he went 10-of-19 for 117 yards against the Hawkeyes. The Cyclones have a tough Big XII opener next week at home against Utah, so the situational spot couldn't be any better for Bowling Green. But how much trust can you put in a squad that's lost its first two games to Nebraska and Tarleton State by a combined margin of 76-20? Dating back to the end of last season, Iowa State's last six games have all stayed under the total. The Falcons' offense only generated 169 total yards and nine first downs on 3.5 yards per play last week in Lincoln.
Play the Under

In the category of “early-season messages from the Group of 6,” the Mean Green’s 44-6 romp past UNLV in Denton is resonating more from the Metroplex than CNN's coverage of the GOP's midterm convention last week in Dallas. Moreover, it is suggesting that any of the expected dropoff from the move of former head coach Eric Morris and much of last year’s North Texas roster to Stillwater might have been a bit overstated. Morris’ successor Neal Brown has won a lot of games in the past and appeared in several bowls at Troy and West Virginia, and has quickly reassembled the Mean Green attack behind UCF transfer and portal veteran QB Tayven Jackson, now on his fourth school (Tennessee and Indiana prior to last fall as a starter for Scott Frost in Orlando). Along with ex-Mountaineer RB Jaheim White (familiar to Brown from previous days in Morgantown, when White gained almost 1,700 yards rushing across the 2023-24 campaigns), already gaining better than seven yards per carry, the North Texas attack looks plenty functional, and many American Conference observers are beginning to pay attention after the Mean Green had also showed much better than the 52-16 final scoreline suggested in the opener at Indiana. The Mean Green out-gained the defending national champ Hoosiers and they were still within earshot into the fourth quarter before Curt Cignetti played the poll game and made sure to jam in a couple of extra window-dressing touchdowns. More encouraging for Brown and his new DC Matt Powledge (via Baylor) is how a transfer-filled defense which returned no starters from a year ago has hit the ground running with a heavy veteran presence (especially senior linebackers Zakye Barker via SMU and Aaron Alexander via Arkansas State) flustering Dan Mullen’s Rebels last week and forcing four turnovers in the process. Meanwhile, though no one is holding CJ Kinne accountable for the opening loss a few miles up I-35 at Texas, the Bobcats are now 0-2 in their Pac-12 debut campaign after letting nearby UTSA rally late for a win last week in San Marcos, as an early-season turnover bugaboo (six giveaways already with a -5 turnover margin) continued to prove costly vs. the Roadrunners as UTSA scored the winning TD in the final 14 seconds. Is an 0-3 start by the Bobcats what Pac-12 commish Teresa Gould was expecting...and should Texas State even be favored here? After two spread wins to open the 2026 campaign, North Texas has now covered 11 of its last 14 against the spread since early last season.
Play North Texas