Analysis

This is the first meeting between the Ravens and Jaguars since Baltimore earned a 23-7 road win in Jacksonville in December 2023. The vibes within each organization could not be heading in more opposite directions at the moment. The Jaguars are coming off a 42-7 home win over the Colts last week in a game where Trevor Lawrence completed ten passes. Jacksonville held a 28-0 lead at halftime thanks to a 92-yard pick-six in the second quarter. The running back duo of Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. produced 145 yards and two touchdowns on just 22 carries. Baltimore has dropped its last three games, and the Ravens are just 1-6 against the spread since crushing those aforementioned Colts in the series opener. QB Lamar Jackson was re-injured during his very first pass attempt last week against the Bills, and back-up Tyler Huntley went down with a toe injury shortly after. Baltimore placed Jackson on IR with a thumb injury, forcing him to miss the next four weeks (at minimum). Huntley is doubtful this week, leaving third-string rookie Joe Fagnano as the likely starter and he's also listed on the injury report with a sore ankle. Fagnano, undrafted out of UConn, went 10-for-21 for 91 passing yards with no touchdowns and one interception in last week's loss to the Bills. The Ravens did sign a free agent (Austin Reed), but with this game being played on Thursday, Baltimore doesn't have any realistic options outside of Fagnano (or pray that Huntley's toe gets healed). We have very little interest in this game because of the steep unknown at quarterback, but for the purpose of those in spread pools and such, we can only look in the Ravens' direction. We gave Baltimore a nine-point downgrade from Jackson to Fagnano and we're still struggling to justify Jacksonville as this big of a favorite. The Ravens enjoy a nice homefield advantage at M&T Bank Stadium, and even though the wind has been taken out of their sails a bit in recent weeks, the Baltimore faithful will still show up and support their squad on Thursday night. When you have Derrick Henry at running back, a talented wide receiver room and a quality defense, there are still paths to covering a big number as a home 'dog. It doesn't have to be pretty.
Play Baltimore Ravens

At Estadio Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain. Much like Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore two weeks ago, wondering why in the heck they were in Paris with their teams to play a game with so much unrest in the city, we’re betting that Zac Taylor and Kevin Stefanski might be saying the same sorts of things this week in Madrid, where political tensions are about to reach a boiling point. Our advice might be to simply stay off of the trains (which seem kind of dangerous) in Spain and just ride from Barajas to the Bernabeu on a bus. For the Falcons, they might just want a dry pitch after almost drowning on the waterlogged Raymond James Stadium turf last week as a torrential downpour made it hard to stay upright, much less pass the ball downfield (which the Bucs decided wasn’t necessary at all). But on a pitch worthy of Real Madrid, good enough for Kylian Mbappe and Vinicus running up and down the field every other week, we doubt Atlanta has any of the same field condition issues as a week ago. Remember, on a dry track, the Falcons have displayed plenty of pop this season, having won in a romp at Green Bay and giving the 49ers their only loss of the season. Both of those results came after QB Michael Penix returned to active duty, and for the most part that’s signaled a productive offense, as Atlanta was scoring at a 32 points per game pace - the best such mark in the NFL - with Penix at the controls before running into that deluge at Tampa. We’ll blame the rain for what might have been the worst Penix performance since 2021 when he was at Indiana, which was the last time he had tossed more than two interceptions in a game prior to last week. Meanwhile, the Bengals might hope that last week’s escape vs. the lowly Titans was just a flat spot, but the discussion at every Skyline Chili parlor in the region might instead be about a defense allowing 36 points to a punchless foe like Tennessee. Slow starts are also an ongoing concern for Coach Taylor, and the Bengals don’t want to make Joe Burrow throw for 6 TDs in a come-from behind mode every week like they had to do last Sunday. Now, Burrow might be up to it, as he’s the hottest QB in the league after tossing at least 4 TD passes in three-straight games, and Falcon coverage schemes suggest Ja’Marr Chase and Tea Higgins could be in favorable matchups. In Cincy’s three-game win streak, however, note the victims have been the one-win Dolphins, the Ravens minus Lamar Jackson, and another one-win team (the Titans) that forced overtime on the road. Nothing suggests this is going to be easy for the Bengals.
Play Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans has won each of the last three meetings, with the last one being a 35-14 home win in November 2024. The Saints are coming off their bye week after previously falling to the Steelers in Paris. Since upsetting Baltimore in Week 2, New Orleans has gone 1-4 straight-up and against the spread. Slow starts continue to be a major issue for head coach Kellen Moore during his tenure at the Superdome. New Orleans has been held scoreless in the first quarter in six of seven games this season. The Saints are 1-6 against the spread in both the first quarter and first half. Per NFL betting analyst Evan Abrams, the Saints are 1-20-3 on the first quarter moneyline and 3-21 against the first quarter spread since the beginning of last season. These teams won't have to look very far for a shared data point because Pittsburgh was the last opponent that each team has played. Cleveland fell 27-6 to the Steelers last week as the Browns struggled to generate any kind of rushing attack once again. Quinshon Judkins was held to 25 yards on 11 carries. Judkins has been held below 50 rushing yards in four of his seven games thus far, despite receiving double-digit carries in every contest and averaging 14.4 rushing attempts per game. Neither team is particularly trustworthy at the moment, but we simply can't shake these early-game trends from New Orleans. Moore, who was an offensive coordinator for seven years before taking the head coaching job with New Orleans, hasn't been able to execute a scripted gameplan at the beginning of a contest. Struggling against the Vikings and Steelers is one thing. Going scoreless for the first 28:42 against the Giants is another. New Orleans hasn't been ready at the start, no matter who the opponent has been.
Play Cleveland Browns

This is the first meeting between the Lions and Dolphins since Miami earned a 31-27 road win in Detroit in October 2022. The Lions have won each of their last three games, but Sunday's 19-15 home win over Minnesota came at a big price. Linebacker Jack Campbell suffered a neck injury while making a tackle. On Monday, Detroit's front office announced that "preliminary indications are positive" but he continues to be monitored at a Detroit-area hospital. Center Cade Mays, edge rusher D.J. Wonnum, cornerback D.J. Reed and safety Brian Branch all left that game with various injuries. Mays and Branch were both working their way back from previous long-term injuries. Miami isn't threatening to win many games, but the Dolphins continue to be feisty in the betting market. Miami has covered the spread in three of the last four games, and the lone loss came on a mixed extra point with 45 seconds left against the Bengals. In last week's loss to the Patriots, the Dolphins scored just before the two-minute warning to sneak in the back door as a seven-point home 'dog. Once again, Miami isn't threatening to win many of these games, but the Dolphins have shown that they will play for 60 minutes and the same can certainly be said for Dan Campbell's Lions. Considering two of the Dolphins' last four games have seen a closing total below 40, this week's opening total north of 50 has certainly caught some eyes. In our opinion, it's justified. We read you the names of the Lions’ notable injuries last week, and almost all of them are on the defensive side of the ball. Detroit just finished two hard-fought, gritty defensive battles against Green Bay and Minnesota. Miami's defense is a far cry from what Jared Goff and Co. had to face over the last few weeks. We've seen what the Lions' offense can do against inferior opposition because Detroit averaged 32.8 points per game through the first five weeks. We expect the Lions to get back to that neighborhood again on Sunday.
Play the Over

It might be too soon to call it a turnaround, but the Commanders did produce in front of the midterms on Sunday night against the Eagles in a must-win game to at least stop the beat of the war drums and the 60 Minutes cameras (even if temporarily so) at HC Dan Quinn’s door. All that did was get Washington to 2-4-1, but recent efforts since Quinn ran out of viable QB options in London against the Colts suggest things have improved, especially as QB Jayden Daniels now has the first win under his belt in over a year. With the NFC East still very much up for grabs, it’s not too late to get back into the mix, and the WR spot vacated by Terry McLaurin’s injury now has some intriguing alternatives as rookie slot Antonio Williams (via Clemson) caught five passes while Treylon Burks hauled in a 53-yarder from Daniels. Five sacks of Tanner McKee suggests that Quinn has perhaps re-toggled his pass rush, too, which will be necessary to keep Matthew Stafford off balance. Not impossible, as the Rams offense has been moving only in fits and spurts into November, reflected by last week’s effort vs. the winless Chargers when LA only gained 95 yards before intermission (66 of those on the final drive of the half). As for Stafford, he’s less able to escape pressure these days, and his current eight picks have him on pace for the most he’s tossed since his rookie year of 2009 (when he pitched 20 interceptions). Though finally on a win streak (two games), the Rams also still haven’t put 60 good minutes together as they’ve just climbed back to the .500 level in early November. Better news could be the imminent return of DE Myles Garrett, who’s been on the shelf with knee problems since playing in the opener in Melbourne vs. the 49ers. Yet LA remains minus the threat of WR Davante Adams, and McVay is keeping a rolodex of available place-kickers at the ready after well-traveled Brandon McManus became the third Ram to try a field goal this season (he was good from 30 yards) and previously-dumped Joshua Karty handling kickoffs last week vs. Bolts. Evidence of a full LA turnaround is still elusive, and this is the type of game Washington was able to win when Daniels has been clicking in the past.
Play Washington Commanders

This is the first meeting between the Colts and Cowboys since Dallas earned a 54-19 home win as a double-digit favorite in December 2022. In last week's newsletter, we mentioned that Indianapolis was likely going to be a significant seller at the trade deadline and the Colts have not disappointed thus far. Long-tenured guard Quenton Nelson was sent to Seattle, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was shipped to San Francisco and more moves are likely on the way. Wide receiver Josh Downs has requested a trade and it sounds like several suitors have made offers for running back Jonathan Taylor. Heck, with the questionable QB situation around the league, a team like Baltimore or Minnesota might be half-tempted to inquire about Daniel Jones. Since returning home from London, the Colts have lost their last four contests by an average of 14.8 points per game. Things aren't looking much better on the Cowboys' side at the moment. Dallas is 1-3 straight-up and against the spread over the last four games, including two losses as a 7+ point favorite. The Cowboys jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week against Arizona and still held a 17-3 lead in the final minute of the third quarter before blowing the game in overtime. Since 2000, Dallas had been 69-0 when leading by 14+ points in the fourth quarter, but that run came to a close against the Cardinals. Defensive back Caleb Downs, safety PJ Locke, edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, cornerback Joey Porter, Jr. and tight end Jake Ferguson all suffered injuries in last week's loss to Arizona. Downs needs to clear concussion protocol, while Lawrence is expected to miss a few weeks with an ankle injury. Let's take the Cowboys' defense completely out of this equation, especially with the four injuries on defense that we just listed. The Cowboys' team total has opened at 29.5, which is a mark Dallas has cleared in five of its last seven games. The Colts' last four opponents have scored an average of 29.5 points against Indianapolis, and that list includes Minnesota and Tennessee who are bottom-6 in the NFL in points scored this season. Dallas' offense is significantly better than most of the offenses Indianapolis has seen over the last five weeks. Also, after what happened last week, you better believe Dallas is playing for 60 minutes this week, and we may see a late insurance score that we may not have seen in other contests.
Play Cowboys Over 29.5 Points

This has been a quirky matchup in the NFC East, strictly because of when these teams play each year. The Eagles and Giants have played in Week 18 three of the last four years and they will do so again at the end of this season. That generally means that most of the data points in this matchup can be thrown out because neither team has had much to play for in those contests in years past. We've got games that were quarterback'd by Davis Webb, Tommy DeVito, Marcus Mariota, Drew Lock, Tanner McKee and Tyrod Taylor over the last few seasons. One of those names (McKee) is still around, and he probably wishes this was Week 18 because the Eagles are ready to put a bow on this season. Philadelphia has lost its last six games and the Eagles are 1-7 against the spread this season. The Giants are coming off their bye week after previously upsetting Houston as a 10.5-point 'dog in Week 7. JJ McCarthy went 20-of-28 through the air with 252 passing yards, building a nice connection with star receiver Malik Nabers (seven catches for 111 yards). McKee has found a connection with rookie receiver Makai Lemon (six catches vs Washington last week), but the Eagles aren't offering anything else on offense at the moment. Saquon Barkley is clearly battling with injuries and he was held to 30 rushing yards on 13 carries last week. The Giants' last four games have all gone over the total, but look what Philadelphia's offense has done this season: Seven points at Chicago, 14 points vs Carolina, ten points last week at Washington. The Eagles have scored an average of 14.8 points per game over the last six weeks. We trust John Harbaugh to have a solid gameplan in place off the bye to keep the Eagles' offense stuck in neutral for another week.
Play the Under

Kansas City has won four of the last five meetings, but New York did stay within the number in their last meeting as a 7.5-point home 'dog in October 2023. The Chiefs return home after an unsuccessful roadtrip where they were swept by the Seahawks and Broncos. Kansas City thought it scored the game-winning touchdown in the final minute against Denver, but that play was called back with a penalty and the Chiefs eventually turned the ball over on downs. The Jets have lost six of their last seven games, and things have gotten to the point where head coach Aaron Glenn is firmly a part of the betting handicap each week. Dating all the way back to our offseason content from the summer, we asked major questions about Glenn, quarterback Geno Smith and offensive coordinator Frank Reich. For all intents and purposes, Smith and Reich have done their job. Smith still makes bone-headed decisions, but he's added a spark to the Jets' offense and New York has gotten its money's worth with him at the helm. In last week's game against the Raiders, the Jets scored on each of their first six possessions. New York didn't punt until the final minutes of the third quarter...and still lost. Glenn's unit of specialty, the defense, allowed 38 points and 8.8 yards per pass attempt to Kirk Cousins and the Raiders. That comes one week after the Jets allowed 28 points to Malik Willis and the Dolphins. New York's last three games have all gone over the total and their next two opponents are Kansas City and Buffalo. Good luck with that. Also, you're likely to see a little more aggression from Kansas City in this contest on 3rd and 4th downs because the Chiefs' kicking situation is not in a great place right now. Harrison Butker's been asked to convert in some tough situations, but you can't miss seven kicks in seven games. The Jets potentially getting Breece Hall back and the Chiefs getting Rashee Rice back will only aid both offenses.
Play the Over

The Broncos and Panthers will take the field during the ten-year anniversary of Denver's 2016 Super Bowl victory over Carolina. The Broncos are 5-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last six meetings, with the last one being a 28-14 home win as a double-digit favorite in October 2024. Carolina had a couple extra days to prep for this one after falling at Green Bay last Thursday. The Panthers have dropped their last two games, but still hold a half-game lead in the NFC South with a record below .500 once again. Since losing to Kansas City in the opener, Denver has gone 6-1 straight-up and against the spread. The Broncos have already finished both games against the Chiefs, so they should enjoy a comfortable run down the stretch. Five of the Broncos' next six games are against opponents that are currently below .500. This will be Denver's first significant road trip of the season, however. The Broncos' last three road games have been in Santa Clara, Los Angeles and Phoenix, so Denver hasn't been asked to travel very far this season. Road concerns were a little bit of an issue last year. Denver famously played one of the worst games of modern American football against the Jets in London, which saw one touchdown, 20 total first downs and 328 total yards between the two teams. Denver needed overtime to get past Washington as a road favorite last year. Denver lost as a road favorite at Indianapolis. Traveling east hasn't been very kind to the Broncos over the last few seasons, and we all remember that 21-point loss in Kansas City in Week 1. Also, Denver has a bye after this so the Broncos may have an eye toward some tee times. Sean Payton is going to have his hands full this week, and with Carolina getting extra time to prep, we can only look in the Panthers' direction.
Play Carolina Panthers

This will be the Raiders' first trip to Santa Clara since November 2018. San Francisco is returning from its bye week after previously losing in Atlanta. That defeat was the 49ers' first loss of the season. Running back Christian McCaffrey, edge rusher Nick Bosa and wide receivers Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel were all dealing with injuries before the break, so keep an eye on their status through out the week. The Raiders snapped their four-game losing skid with a 38-33 road win against the Jets, and now have to play their second-straight road game. Las Vegas doesn't have a bye until Week 13, so the Raiders are beginning to rack up some frequent flyer miles and attrition. Over the last month, Las Vegas has made two cross-country trips to the East Coast plus a pair of difficult home games against the Rams and Bills. The Raiders' last six games have all gone over the total. During that stretch, Las Vegas' opponents have scored an average of 33.8 points per game. The Jets scored on their first six possessions last week before the Raiders' defense finally made some plays down the stretch. Las Vegas now transitions from facing arguably the worst-coached team in the NFL to arguably the best-coached team in the NFL. Keep an eye on the 49ers' injury status through out the week, but we're prepared to lay this number with San Francisco. This should be a hot ticket in Santa Clara with both fanbases well represented. The Raiders' home loss to the Chiefs isn't holding up very well considering how Kansas City has looked the last few weeks. Las Vegas has a one-dimensional offense with absolutely no rushing attack. Klint Kubiak has done a nice job navigating a tough schedule in his debut season, but San Francisco should be able to name the number in this one.
Play San Francisco 49ers