Analysis

Miami has won-and-covered each of the last two meetings, including a 37-20 road win in Buffalo last season. The Bulls actually out-gained the RedHawks in that contest and held a 21-16 advantage in first downs, but couldn't overcome a -3 turnover differential. Both teams are on equal rest heading into the start of mid-week MACtion. Miami has won each of its last three games, but the RedHawks have caught some teams in fortunate situations. UMass was missing starting QB Pop Watson and Central Michigan was playing its first game without starting QB Angel Flores. Those wins aren't moving the needle for us, especially considering Miami didn't cover the spread in either contest. Buffalo has covered the number in four-straight games as the Bulls are playing some of their best football of the season. Buffalo was also fortunate to catch the Minutemen without Watson, but the Bulls covered the spread in those other three contests by an average of 16.2 points per game. Pete Lembo is a veteran coach that generally knows what buttons to push as the season progresses. This doesn't look like the same Buffalo squad that opened the year 0-4 against the spread. Knowing that they coulda-shoulda-woulda given the RedHawks a closer game last year should help fuel the Bulls to another strong performance on Tuesday night.
Play Buffalo

Ohio has won each of the last seven meetings, but the Bobcats and Zips did not play last season. Four of the last five meetings have stayed under the total. Both teams are on equal rest heading into the start of mid-week MACtion. Ohio brings a five-game winning streak into this contest, and just like several years past under head coaches Frank Solich, Tim Albin and Brian Smith, the Bobcats are lurking under-the-radar for first-year head coach John Hauser. Ohio is off to a 4-0 start in conference play, beating the likes of Kent State, Central Michigan, Sacramento State and Eastern Michigan by an average of 16.3 points per game. After playing QB roulette earlier this season because of injuries, original-starter Nick Poulos has returned to the lineup and he had a strong performance against Eastern Michigan before the bye. Also, Ohio's non-conference win over Jacksonville State is aging quite nicely considering the Gamecocks have won all five of their games since that defeat. Akron is still searching for its first win over an FBS-level opponent and the Zips are just 1-5 against the spread over the last six contests. These teams share several common opponents (Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Kent State) - Ohio beat all three of those teams while Akron lost to all three of those teams. Early money has shown on Ohio, and while our power ratings agree with the move, we have some interest in Akron in the first half. Joe Moorhead has been dealt a tough hand, but he's still regarded as a strong offensive mind in college football. Akron has scored a first quarter touchdown in four of its last five games. Coming off a bye, Moorhead is going to have something up his sleeve in this contest. We mentioned that Akron is 1-5 against the spread over its last six games. Well, the Zips are 3-3 in the first half of those games. Akron generally doesn't have the talent to compete for 60 minutes, but Moorhead has given them a fighting chance in the first half. For a little bit of context, Ohio is laying a bigger spread in Akron (-14) than UNLV was (-13) a little over a month ago.
Play Akron 1H

The home team has won each of the last five meetings in this Wolverine State matchup, but that won't be a factor on Wednesday as this game is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. Central Michigan earned a 24-13 home win over the Eagles last season in a game that stayed well below the closing total. Both teams are on equal rest heading into the start of mid-week MACtion and both are looking to snap losing skids. Central Michigan has lost each of its last three games, while Eastern Michigan is coming off back-to-back losses against Toledo and Ohio. The Chippewas play a physical, run-based attack that is built for the sometimes-frigid temperatures of Mount Pleasant. While this trip to the Motor City provides a nice marketing opportunity for Central Michigan, playing in a controlled environment like this probably helps the Eagles. Eastern Michigan is generally looking to play with a little more explosiveness on offense, and the fast turf of Ford Field will likely help them a lot more than Central's rushing attack. Top receiver Nick Devereaux returned from injury against the Bobcats after missing each of the previous four games and he picked up where he left off with ten targets against Ohio. The Eagles' pass-heavy attack is likely going to benefit more from the offense-friendly conditions in the dome.
Play Eastern Michigan

This will be the first meeting between the Cardinals and Minutemen since October 2015. UMass had one extra day to prep for this one after falling at UConn last week, but the Minutemen still received some good news in the process. Dynamic QB Pop Watson III was originally feared to have suffered a season-ending foot injury a few weeks ago, but Watson made a somewhat-surprising return last week against the Huskies. He had some rust to shake, but Watson went 22-of-38 through the air with a touchdown and no interceptions. UMass couldn't get anything going on the ground (53 rushing yards) against UConn, but that shouldn't be too big of a problem this week against Ball State's defense. The Cardinals have covered the spread in four-straight games after beating Sacramento State two weeks ago. The over is 6-1-1 in Ball State's games, and that's the only direction we can look in this one. With Watson in the lineup at the beginning of the season, UMass scored 37 points at Rutgers and 35 points at Sacramento State. Ball State's defense is probably right between those two. Cardinals' QB Keldric Luster is a playmaker, but he's also prone to making plays for the other team (four interceptions in Ball State's last four games).
Play the Over

Welcome to the MAC, Sacramento State! The Hornets got their first FBS-level win over Kent State last week, breaking a six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS during that run). The Hornets' reward is one of the shortest rest spots you'll see during the college football season. Sacramento State's game against Kent State ended late Friday night. Now, the Hornets have to host Toledo on Wednesday, in what is essentially a late-afternoon home game for the Hornets. Toledo is coming off a bye, so the Rockets will be well-rested for this contest. Toledo is coming off back-to-back point spread covers against Eastern and Western Michigan. Toledo played at Washington State in the middle of last season (Week 9, no bye before) so any players that are remaining from last year's team have some experience with a random West Coast road trip in the middle of the season. From a power ratings' perspective, this is a big number to lay and we've already seen one road favorite fail their first California trek. But given the rest advantage that Toledo has, the big number is justified. While Sacramento State deserves kudos for its first win, here's how the Hornets opened that game: Fumble, punt, punt, field goal, field goal, punt, field goal. Sacramento State didn't find the end zone until there were three minutes remaining in the third quarter.
Play Toledo

UTSA has won-and-covered each of the last two meetings, but the Owls and Roadrunners did not meet last season. We're looking at a total in the mid-70s for this American Conference clash, and after a quick look at Florida Atlantic's schedule logs, it's easy to see why. The over is 7-1 in FAU's games this season, with each of the last five games clearing the 60-point mark. One week after hitting the century mark with Rice, the Owls nearly did it again last week in a 48-41 loss to North Texas. UTSA is coming off its bye week, and it probably came at an ideal time for the Roadrunners. UTSA's lone loss this season came at Texas in Week 3 (no shame in that), and the Roadrunners have thrown their name into the College Football Playoff discussion. While UTSA isn't putting up quite the same gaudy totals each week, the over is still 4-1 in the Roadrunners' last four games. UTSA enjoys a very strong home field advantage at the Alamo Dome in San Antonio, but road travels have given the Roadrunners problems in the past. UTSA is only 5-5 against the spread in its last ten road games. The Roadrunners lost at Temple as a 6.5-point road favorite last year and they nearly lost as a 12.5-point road favorite this year (won by two). We wouldn't be shocked if this was a back-and-forth affair. Just like last season, Florida Atlantic has attempted the fourth-most fourth down conversions in the country (led the nation with 62 last year). Be prepared for some high-variance plays in this one, but if the ball bounces in FAU's favor, the Owls can pull the upset.
Play Florida Atlantic

James Madison won the lone meeting between these teams in October 2024. The Dukes had two extra days to prep for this one after losing at home to Troy last Thursday. This is the first time since the end of the 2024-25 season that James Madison has lost back-to-back games. Running back George Pettaway (6.6 yards per carry with eight TDs) missed last week's loss to Troy with a lower-body injury and he is not expected to return for this one. The Dukes were only able to generate 3.8 yards per carry against the Trojans last week, although senior Seth Cromwell showed some pop. After a five-game losing streak earlier this season, Southern Miss has now won back-to-back games over Louisiana and UL-Monroe. Some early money has shown on the over in this contest, and we agree with it. The Eagles' last four games have seen an average of 61.8 points per game (3-1 to the over). Perhaps James Madison was beginning to feel the pressure of a 7-0 start with a potential College Football Playoff discussion looming. With those plans now out the window after back-to-back losses, the Dukes can probably play with a little more freedom against one of the worst defenses in the Sun Belt.
Play the Over

Can we get one complete effort, SMU? Just one? The Pony Express has looked like it could compete with Seattle Slew at times this season, and at other times, would struggle to compete in an $8K maiden claiming race at Mountaineer Park. The Mustangs suffered their second loss of the season, falling at Syracuse as an 8.5-point road favorite. We don't want to penalize SMU TOO much for that defeat because the Orange have done a nice job masking their available quarterbacks on a week-to-week basis and Steve Angeli may have caught the Mustangs by surprise. But last week's result is just the latest in a long string of not-quite-60-minute efforts from the Mustangs. The week prior against Cal, SMU trailed 20-17 at halftime as a three-touchdown home favorite. A 23-13 home win over Virginia isn't holding up very well considering the Cavaliers just lost 51-7 against Wake Forest last week. SMU only led Missouri State 14-10 at halftime and that was a three-point game midway through the fourth quarter before the Mustangs earned a couple late scores. Do you trust this team to lay points right now? We certainly don't. Virginia Tech is coming off its bye week after a pair of wins over Georgia Tech and Clemson. The Hokies already have road wins at Maryland (when they were playing well), Boston College and Clemson. Va Tech's lone road loss came at Cal when the Golden Bears scored the game-winning touchdown with 18 seconds left. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings is having a fantastic season, but he's not getting a consistent weekly effort from the players around him. Also, James Franklin should have a pretty good idea what to expect from Jennings and head coach Rhett Lashlee considering his Nittany Lions beat SMU in the College Football Playoff less than two years ago.
Play Virginia Tech

East Carolina has won-and-covered each of the last three meetings, although the Pirates and Bulls haven't shared the field since 2022. Both teams are coming off wins last week as ECU took down Temple, while South Florida handled UAB. The Bulls' 30-10 win over the Blazers looks awfully flattering considering USF generated 237 total yards and 13 first downs. The Bulls scored two touchdowns off UAB fumbles. South Florida QB Michael Van Buren Jr. did not finish last week's win with an undisclosed injury. Former Florida State transfer Luke Kromenhoek secured the victory and he may be in line for the start this week. Kromenhoek was a former 4-star recruit that was supposed to be the heir apparent in Tallahassee in 2024 after Florida State had its near-perfect season, but the Seminoles famously went 7-17 over the next two years and Kromenhoek never really got a fair shot at the gig. He's got a shot now, but his potential first start may come against one of the best defenses in the conference. The under is 4-1 in South Florida's last five games. The under is 6-1 in ECU's last seven games. This is a VERY low total, but it's there for a reason.
Play the Under

Illinois is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five meetings, with the last one being a 31-24 road win in overtime in 2024. Things got pretty ugly in Lincoln after Nebraska's 17-10 home loss to Washington. The Huskers held a lead for over 45 minutes in that contest as Washington didn't find the end zone until there was 1:30 remaining in the fourth quarter. Nebraska out-gained the Huskies by 120 yards but couldn't overcome three interceptions by Anthony Colandrea, including a pick-six in the final seconds that gave Washington the cushion it needed to pull away. That was the third game in a row where Big Red blew a fourth quarter lead, and what looked like a promising season a month ago is now heading toward the Pinstripe Bowl. Things got pretty heated inside Memorial Stadium during the closing minutes, and a fan reportedly cursed out Matt Rhule's 13-year-old daughter. Things are looking a little better in Champaign at the moment where the Illini have won each of their last three games. Illinois got some positive news last week as starting QB Katin Houser returned from injury a little earlier than expected in last week's win over Maryland. Houser had some rust to shake off, but considering the Illini went 2-0 without him, vibes should be pretty high for Bret Bielema's squad. Illinois' defense isn't as good as it has been in year's past, but we're certainly not looking to lay points on the road with Nebraska right now after the Huskers scored 17, 14 and 10 points across their last three games.
Play Illinois

They’re now in the pole position (apparently) for the Group of 6 berth in the playoff, but the Lobos sure aren’t going full speed like Max Verstappen on Sunday in Mexico City. Style points won’t likely change the minds of the selection committee if New Mexico keeps winning, though Jason Eck has had a tough time of it in back-to-back 21-16 scorelines (vs. North Dakota State & San Jose State), and took an awfully long time before putting away a 2-win win Hawaii prior to that while also landing on...you guessed it, 21 points. Though with the nation’s top-ranked scoring defense (11.88 pg), 21 points is usually plenty, and a potentially lucrative fundamental matchup awaits in Reno as Jason Eck’s various ballhawks (who have recorded a nation’s-best 17 interceptions) might have eyes as wide as saucers at the potential prospect of going up against Wolf Pack QB Luke Duncan, who tossed three picks in the first 7:27 last Saturday vs. his old team UCLA (did Duncan maybe still think he was playing for the Bruins?) and forcing HC Jeff Choate to sub in recently-hurting AJ Bianco. Though Bianco or early-season starter Carter Jones (also recently hurting) are both higher on the depth chart and don’t figure to be as generous as Duncan, so we’ll see if Eck’s fire-drill offense can maybe smooth out of its own rough spots with QB Toa Fa’avae, who has turned mistake-prone (just 1 TD pass vs. 6 picks) across the past three games. As for Choate, he might be better-advised for this offense to go direct-snaps to RBs Herschel Turner and Dominic Kelley and not risk mistakes, because his gnarly defense (allowing only 21.8 ppg, and which flustered the fifth-ranked Bruins for much of last Saturday) is capable of keeping the Pack within earshot. With several challenging Mountain West dates still to come, no surprise if New Mexico keeps making hard work for itself and flying close to the flame in November.
Play the Under

They’re starting to grumble in Fort Worth, and Sonny Dykes was likely saved from a very uncomfortable week when his Horned Frogs rallied from a 13-0 halftime deficit to collar Kansas at the wire last Saturday at Amon Carter Stadium. Ivy League transfer QB Jaden Craig might have done more than save the game for TCU with his 17-yard TD scramble with just over a minute to play, as Big XII sources report complaints have escalated alarmingly among the Frog support base that has noted how far the program has dropped from that flash title game appearance in 2022 during Dykes’ first year in charge. The offense, in particular, has become “offensive” this season with Craig unable to light the fuse, and they would like a bit more entertainment in the Metroplex than this 101st-ranked scoring offense (23.2 ppg; take away the 94 points scored vs. Grambling and Arkansas State and the average is barely 19 points) has delivered. Fortunately for Dykes, his robust defense (which hasn’t allowed more than 21 points vs. any foe and ranks 8th nationally in scoring at just 14.1 ppg) has kept the Frogs in every game and is the best path to bowl eligibility, but keeping a potent Arizona strike force and four-year QB Noah Fifita (19 TD passes and just 4 picks) in check is going to be quite a chore. We suppose we'll also see if the ‘Cats are down in the dumps after a realistic chance to enter the playoff conversation were perhaps irreparably harmed last Saturday at Texas Tech when the Red Raiders snuck in ex-Florida State Tommy Castellanos at QB in the last minute, but Arizona isn’t mathematically out of the Big XII race just yet and does get a shot at current league leader Utah in Tucson next week. After scoring nearly 38 points per game the past six weeks, the ‘Cats look more likely to fire the majority of scoring shots and cause Dykes some more grief with his reportedly diminishing support base.
Play Arizona

Kansas has won-and-covered each of the two meetings since UCF joined the Big XII, including a 27-20 road win in Orlando last season. The Knights out-gained the Jayhawks in that contest and held a 21-15 advantage in first downs, but couldn't overcome a costly fumble. UCF scored all 20 of its points in the first half and was held scoreless after halftime. UCF is licking its wounds after a 41-9 home loss to Baylor last week. It appears that James Madison transfer Alonza Barnett is set to resume his duties as Knights' starting QB. Barnett missed five games with a hamstring injury as Florida International transfer Keyone Jenkins led the offense. Jenkins suffered an ankle injury in last week's loss to Baylor, and is not expected to be cleared for this one. Kansas has lost three of its last four games, and ironically, the Jayhawks' lone win during this run came against the Baylor team that gave UCF so many problems last week. Kansas QB Isaiah Marshall did not play in last week's loss at TCU after suffering a lower-leg injury the previous week against Baylor. Cole Ballard, who has four years of experience in the Jayhawks' program, went 20-of-35 for 285 yards against the Horned Frogs. UCF enjoys a nice home field advantage at The Bounce House in Orlando, but the Knights have been a different team on the road. Since the beginning of last season, UCF has gone 0-8 straight-up, 3-5 against the spread away from home.
Play Kansas