Analysis

The Raptors and Sixers split their four meetings last year at two wins apiece. Toronto is on the second leg of a back-to-back after falling at home to Boston on Wednesday. The Raptors are 2-5 straight-up and against the spread over the last seven games as they try to stay afloat without Kawhi Leonard and Scottie Barnes. Barnes is considered "day to day" with a strained adductor that has kept him out for the last few games. Immanuel Quickley returned to the Raptors' lineup against Boston after dealing with a hamstring injury, but he went 3-for-14 from the field as Toronto blew a 22-point lead last night. Philadelphia is also coming off a home loss to the Celtics (on Tuesday). After a red-hot start, the Sixers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games. As we've mentioned over the last week, Philadelphia's biggest concern entering this season was the lack of depth behind Joel Embiid. Andre Drummond left for New York in the offseason. Ariel Hukporti suffered a torn Achilles during the preseason and will likely miss the entire year. Dominick Barlow hasn't played all season while he deals with a back injury. Adem Bona has missed the last three games. Perhaps trying to do a little too much in others' absence, Embiid has gone 9-for-37 (24.3-percent) from the floor over the last three games. Embiid and LeBron James are both listed as questionable in this one. Even though both teams have struggled on offense over the past few games, we have some mild interest in the over in this contest. If Embiid is out or limited, that puts more emphasis on Tyrese Maxey and we're perfectly fine with that. With Toronto playing short-handed and on the second leg of a back-to-back, Maxey's biggest weapon will be the speed that he plays with.
Play the Over

These familiar foes just met on Wednesday in Detroit with the Pistons earning a 122-111 home win. Detroit was able to pass that test with relative ease, even with a mild night from star Cade Cunningham. Daniss Jenkins, Duncan Robinson and John Collins each finished with 22+ points as Cunningham dealt with some foul trouble and only played 26 minutes. Wizards' center Anthony Davis finished with 44 points and 13 rebounds on 16-of-21 shooting from the field, but it wasn't enough. Detroit hasn't played since that game so the Pistons are well-rested for this one. Washington is on the second leg of a back-to-back after falling to the Pacers in Indianapolis last night. That was the Wizards' fifth-straight loss (1-4 ATS). The under is 7-2 in Washington's last nine games. From a market standpoint, this has been a steep adjustment in Detroit's favor. The Pistons closed as a 9.5-point home favorite over Washington on Sunday, and now are laying a bigger number on the road five days later. In our opinion, the move is justified. Washington had a back-to-back last week against the Hawks and Thunder and lost the second game by 39 points. Washington got an A+ game from Davis, a C- game from Cunningham and still couldn't stay within single digits of the Pistons on Sunday. Regression to the mean will likely favor Detroit once again.
Play Detroit Pistons

Minnesota has won each of the last six meetings in this Western Conference matchup. All four meetings last season stayed under their respective totals as the T-Wolves' defense held the Mavs to an average of 101.5 points per game. Minnesota has won-and-covered each of its last four games, although victories over Utah, New Orleans and Milwaukee aren't moving the needle very far. The Timberwolves are a league-best 10-1 against the spread this season, with the lone loss coming against the red-hot Warriors. Minnesota hasn't played since Sunday, so the T-Wolves are well-rested for this one. Dallas also enters this game on a winning streak, but much like Minnesota, wins over Utah, Brooklyn and Indiana won't earn you many awards. The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last four games as an underdog with three outright upsets at the end of October. The under is 8-2 in Dallas' last ten games, and that is the direction we'll be looking in this one. Minnesota may have a little rust to shake off after such a lengthy lay-off. Dallas hasn't left the state of Texas since October 26, so this is their first "real" road trip in a while. Minnesota leads the NBA in defensive rating thus far, and Dallas is also sitting in the top-10 after the first three weeks of the season. The Mavericks played at a top-5 pace last season, but they have slowed things down considerably in 2026 with a formula that is working. The rosters have changed a bit, but the results from last season also point in our favor.
Play the Under

The Hornets and Suns have split their meetings over the last two seasons with the home team protecting its turf in every game. Charlotte hits the road for a West Coast road trip after earning one of the most head-scratching results of the season. The Hornets beat the Cavaliers as an 8.5-point home 'dog on Monday, scoring a season-high 124 points without Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Dennis Schoeder and Moussa Diabate in the lineup. Charlotte went 23-of-46 (50.0-percent) from three-point range as Naz Reid and Grayson Allen combined for 52 points. Prior to that 124-point outburst, the Hornets were averaging 96.3 points per game over their first ten games and failed to hit the 100-point mark five times. The Jekyll and Hyde routine is also being felt in Phoenix, where one game the Suns can beat the Rockets as a 6.5-point home 'dog then lose to San Antonio by 26 two nights later. Phoenix earned a 133-110 home win over the Clippers on Tuesday. This is the sixth game of a lengthy homestand for the Suns, who don't play again until Sunday. Diabate is expected to return for Charlotte tonight as he recovers from a quad injury, although Miller and Knueppel will remain out. Neither team is particularly trustworthy at the moment, but the disparity in schedules is tough to ignore. Phoenix has played two games against Portland (looks much better than expected), two games against Golden State (looks much better than expected), Oklahoma City (when the Thunder were healthy), Denver, Houston and San Antonio. Charlotte has played the Wizards twice and the Nets twice. We're inclined to believe that Charlotte's upset over Cleveland was a one-night wonder.
Play Phoenix Suns