Analysis

At Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida. Sun Belt sources have issued an alert on South Alabama, which they’ve done in the past for the Jaguars under Richie Riley, who squeezed 21 wins out of another of his mix-and-match rosters last season. The focus this term was to identify a go-to successor to Sun Belt MVP G Chaze Harris, who transferred to Charlotte, but Riley seems to have a couple of viable candidates in holdover F Stephen Williams (19.7 ppg in the early going) and former NAIA hotshot G Jalen Langley, registering at 19 ppg after three outings. The alert, however, was more prompted by a spirited showing in Orlando vs. Big XII contender UCF, which made the Dance for Johnny Dawkins last March. Leading for much of the way, the Jags ended up settling for a 76-69 loss, but it was a handy cover at a mid-teens price, while D-II transfer G Aaron Goldstein nailed six triples en route to 20 points. Sitting 1-2 vs. a challenging slate consisting of mid-major contenders plus a Big Dance qualifier from the Big XII is hardly a demerit for Riley’s troops, picked by some as the team to beat in the Belt. Meanwhile Stan Johnson might need a breakthrough at LMU to last into next season as the Lions have mostly been spinning their wheels on his watch the past six years. The good news for Johnson is that 6-11 boomerang transfer F Jevon Porter (14.2 ppg) was ruled eligible on the eve of the season, and looks like he can provide an effective 1-2 punch with 6-8 UCSB transfer wing Zion Sensley (18.7 ppg). The defensive issues which often haunted the Lions last season, however, reappeared in an opening loss at Westchester to A-Sun invader Queens, and LMU’s shot selection left a bit to be desired in the first game of this road swing at Troy, when firing 40 three-balls and watching only 8 of them connect in at OT loss to the Trojans. Travel note--while the Lions have been back in these parts for a few days, it’s still quite unfamiliar territory for a team that rarely travels east of the Rockies, and this isn’t much a road trip for USA, as Mobile is less than an hour from Pensacola.
Play South Alabama

We’ve got a college game with a total in the 180 neighborhood, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise since these teams (Oklahoma State and Texas A&M) are both scoring more than the Charlotte Hornets of the NBA. It’s helped each that none of their few foes in the first week-plus of the new season have tried to jam the gear box, even just a little...and we’re not sure the Cowboys or Aggies are thinking about such tactics vs. the other tonight, either. Steve Lutz certainly wasn’t preaching that sort of style last season in Stillwater, when the average score of Oklahoma State games was 84-83, flipping the script from a slower pace in his first season the year before. That full-on uptempo got the Cowboys to the second round of the NIT last term and might get them to the Dance next March as Lutz has fortified his roster with a significant portal haul. While scoring 105 pg, the Cowboys have also been doing so with little help from returnee PG Kanye Clary, limited to six minutes across the first two games as Lutz is bringing him back gingerly from a preseason groin strain. His absence was felt more in preseason exhibitions when the Cowboys had turnover problems galore, though that hasn’t been an issue in the first two games and shouldn’t whenever Clary gets back to full-speed or close to it (which might be tonight). In the meantime Sam Houston transfer Jacob Walker (8.5 apg) has been running the offense with aplomb as Ok State has been hitting 54% from the floor, with the Lutz newcomers brigade (portal adds ex-Arizona State 6-11 Andrija Grbovic, ex-UCF F Jordna Burks, ex-North Carolina wing Luka Bogavac, plus touted frosh G Parker Robinson & F Latrell Allmond) all scoring in double digits. Meanwhile, A&M’s Bucky McMillan went 1-1 in eligibility appeals from his roster, with ex-Oregon State & Texas G Jordan pope granted an extra year but G-League firecracker G Bryson Warren ruled out by the SEC. Pope, however, has hit the ground running at 18 ppg, and by now we’re not surprised that peripatetic G PJ Haggerty, on his fith school (fifth!! TCU, Tulsa, Memphis, Kansas State, plus A&M) is percolating at 18 ppg in the early going after scoring bettetr than 20 pg each of the past three seasons at different locales. In fact, when also considering ex-McNeese G Tyshawn Archie and 6-9 ex-Indiana PF Mackenzie Mgbako, a former Big Ten Rookie of trhe Year, and both also scoring in double digits, McMillan might have landed the most loaded portal haul in the SEC, which is saying something, The Cowboys will be needing to go full-throttle to stay close in this expected shootout at College Station.
Play Texas A&M

There’s some local hostilities here, as it’s only about a 45-minute drive on I-10 from Las Cruces to El Paso in a picturesque but awfully desolate part of the country, where both locales seem a bit of an oasis. As for this rivalry, it remains hot and mandates a traditional home-and-home even though the Miners have moved out of Conference USA to the Mountain West this season (the rematch comes a week from tonight at the Pan Am Center). It’s also coming close to make-or-break time in El Paso for HC Joe Golding, under .500 in his five years with the Miners as the natives are starting to get restless at the Haskins Center, as they are entitled at a locale with some rich hoops history. An early loss to at Sioux Falls to a haphazard-looking Northern Kentucky seems a near-red alert after Golding gutted his underachieving roster from a year ago for a complete teardown in the transfer market, looking for more backcourt pizzazz after last year’s Miners played at a much slower pace than usual for a Golding team. Among those new faces, only juco G Cam McDaniels (19 ppg in the early going) seems to have hit the ground running. Meanwhile, we’re going to give the visiting Aggies a mulligan for the blowout loss at Gonzaga, when well-regarded Holy Cross transfer G Gabe Warren had to sit out. Warren at least saw the floor in the subsequent win vs. Western New Mexico, and along with ex-Sac State F Mark Lavrenoc (18 ppg in the early going) and ex-La Tech G DJ Dudley (14 ppg last year for the Bulldogs, 16 ppg in the early going this team for NMSU), Jason Hooten’s portal adds are expected to make immediate contributions in Las Cruces, while returning starter F Jae’Coby Osborne was effective (10 ppg, 9 rpg) in both meetings vs. the Miners last season. Note the two matchups were very tight last season, decided by 3 and 4 points respectively, as the rivals split, so recent series history suggests this is not an insignificant number for the Miners to carry tonight in the border city.
Play New Mexico State

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