Analysis

As usual, attention is elsewhere on Tobacco Road and at other locales in the ACC, but regional observers have alerted to keep an eye on Wake Forest, which has usually been combative in recent years for HC Steve Forbes. Last year’s side did make it into the second round of the NIT, though the pressure is now ramping on Forbes to make the Big Dance, something he has yet to do in his six seasons at Winston-Salem. The new Demon Deacons roster mix might be the most intriguing of Forbes’ seven seasons, however, especially with the frosh Placide twins from Texas, 6-11 Gavin (20 points in the Monday opening cruise past UMES) and 6-8 Gallagher (13 points vs. the Hawks on Monday). Though it’s a couple of transfers who might really hold the keys to the season in ex-Merrimack PG Kevair Kennedy (14 pts and 9 boards in the opener) and ex-Monmouth G Justin Ray, a bombardier who hit 42% of his triples for King Rice’s team last season and making 2 of 3 from downtown en route to 15 points in the opener. Still, where Wake was vulnerable last season was on defense, and a lower-rung MEAC foe in the opener won’t test them like a ranked Vanderbilt, which soared into the Dance last spring for HC Mark Byington and was desperately unlucky not to advance to the Sweet 16. The Dores are thinking they can go even deeper in March this term, with plenty of firepower still in the Music City mix including G Tyler Tanner (19.5 ppg in 2025-26), who picked up where he left off last season with an easy 20 points in the opening cruise past Bellarmine, and there’s excitement with new backcourt running mate Ace Glass, who set a Washington State frosh record for triples last season (71) and hit a couple of bombs in the opener on Monday. The Dores might have showcased things to come when hitting a sizzling 60% from the floor in the lid-lifter, and Byington has also added some quality size this season in 6-11 Bangot Dak (via Colorado; 11.1 ppg a year ago) and rugged 6-10 Turkish import Berke Buyktuncel (via Nebraska; 13 points in the opener). With no shortage of offense and the floor and these teams having combined for nearly 165 ppg last season, clearing a reachable mid 150s “total” looks the best recommendation tonight in Nashville.
Play the Over

If you’re wondering where to find Northern Illinois this season, the Huskies have taken refuge in the Horizon League for all sports except football (where the Mountain West is now home) after bolting from their long association with the MAC in the spring. The hope in DeKalb is that the hoopsters don’t have the same problems adjusting to new climes as has the football team, which is still winless into November in its first non-MAC sojourn. NIU effectively snuck out the back door of the MAC, however, with few noticing after the Huskies cagers were a non-descript 4-14 in league play last season, which prompted a coaching change and the arrival of new HC Matt Majkrzak, fresh off of a successful D-II Run at Northern Michigan, where his Wildcats were a steady NCAA qualifier. At his new job, Majkrzak has not surprisingly cleared the decks, with a brand-new roster hoping to replicate the efficiency his NMU sides displayed in D-II. The opener, however, didn’t go so well vs. Grambling, which scored an 89-87 upset as the Tigers burned the nets with 64% FG shooting. Which should alert Majkrzak that he’d better worry about coaching some defense instead of his intricate offensive schemes. Especially as Thursday foe Tulsa was one of the nation’s highest-scoring teams (85.1 ppg) a year ago when reaching the NIT finale and desperately unlucky to lose there in OT vs. Auburn. Now, HC Eric Konkol has a recipe that appeals to transfers, which he needed after the bulk of last year’s 30-win side departed. The high-profile group of portal adds, however, that got a test run in the opener vs. lower-tier Ottawa in a 98-50 opening night romp. The two returnees in the backcourt, Jaylenj Lawal and Myles Rigsby, combined for 24 poitns in the opener, while Missouri State transfer and dagger-thrower Kobi Williams reminded of his three-point accuracy (37.2% last season) when hitting four triples in seven tries in the opener. As regional sources have raved about Konkol’s portal adds and don’t expect the Golden Hurricane to slip far, if at all, from a year ago, this looks a reasonable price against a Huskies team that expects to be a work-in-progress past New Year’s.
Play Tulsa

As usual, Tom Izzo’s Michigan State is going to be asked to carry some hefty numbers in pre-league play, but with so many high-profile games in the early weeks (such as next Tuesday vs. Duke at the United Center in Chicago), the Spartans can’t expect to be firing on all cylinders in every November game. Blowing out Quinnipiac on Monday was a nice start as Sparty raced to a 52-24 halftime lead, allowing Izzo to clear his bench early in the second half after seeing all he needed from his starters, especially star G Jeremy Fears, Jr, the nation’s assist leader a season ago who dished out quality service again (11 assists) to grateful teammates in just 26 minutes of court time vs. the Bobcats. Yet if Izzo is eager (as he should be) to get his bench some quality minutes in a low-risk situation, clearing this high 20s spread vs. a capable foe might prove a chore. We’d grant that “capable” status to Tod Kowalczyk’s Toledo, who pushed it all of the way to the MAC title game last March and went down to the wire in an honorable 1-point opening night road loss to top Sun Belt contender Arkansas State. The Rockets are an older team with a heavy upperclass presence and several established producers like jr. G Nyner Strong (18 points in the opener), rugged 6-6 PF Angel Montas Jr (16 points and 14 boards in the opener), and another returning starter up front , 6-9 Jaylen Ouwinga, who scored 16 with 14 caroms in the opener at Jonesboro. There are a lot of ways a capable, veteran MAC contender can stay within this sort of sky-high spread vs. a big favorite from a major program that has several other featured dates to worry about in coming weeks.
Play Toledo

No reason to overreact to Lehigh’s heavy opening night loss to Saint Louis, a top contender in the A-10, but it did remind a bit of last season when the Mountain Hawks struggled thru their pre-league slate before catching fire late in the Patriot campaign to make it back into the Dance before succumbing in the First Four against Prairie View. Four starters are back for HC Brett Reed including rugged 6-9, 260-lb pivot Hank Aley (15.2 ppg last season), but must note that most of his better efforts a season ago came in the Patriot, where there aren’t many 6-9, 260-pounders. Meanwhile Jon Jaques and his go-go Cornell didn’t skip a beat despite some of the new faces on the floor in the opner vs. Pepperdine, outscoring the Waves 86-85 as G Jacob Beccles, as several Ivy sources had forecast, assumed up the bulk of the scoring burden after the departure of three double-digit scorers from the sixth highest-scoring team in the nation last season (88.5 ppg) when surfing the Waves for 19 points on Monday. Big Red shooting in general was impressive, canning 14 triples and hitting 52% overall from the floor, suggesting that Jaques’ team is likely to continue playing at the same breathless pace as a year ago with Beccles and backcourt mate Mateen Rafiq (17 points vs. Pep on Monday) looking more than capable of picking up the scoring slack. Note also that Cornell was 3-0 vs. Patriot League foes (lafayette, Colgate, and Bucknell) last season, and held its own at some treacherous locales a year ago, too, such as NIT semifinalist Illinois State and Tom Izzo’s Michigan State.
Play Cornell

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